feat: add CI causal memory observation v0.1

.github/workflows/lotus-family-conformance.yml

@@ -24,13 +24,51 @@ jobs:
           persist-credentials: false
 
       - name: Set up Python
+        id: python
         uses: actions/setup-python@a26af69be951a213d495a4c3e4e4022e16d87065 # v5.6.0
         with:
           python-version: "3.12"
 
       - name: Run Lotus Family conformance suite
+        id: conformance
         run: |
           python -m unittest discover \
             -s standards/lotus-family/conformance \
             -p 'test_*.py' \
             -v
+
+      - name: Emit immutable CI causal observation
+        if: always()
+        env:
+          LOTUS_COMMIT_SHA: ${{ github.event.pull_request.head.sha || github.sha }}
+          LOTUS_REF: ${{ github.head_ref || github.ref }}
+          LOTUS_CONCLUSION: ${{ steps.conformance.outcome }}
+          LOTUS_RUNNER_OS: ${{ runner.os }}
+          LOTUS_RUNNER_ARCH: ${{ runner.arch }}
+          LOTUS_PYTHON_VERSION: ${{ steps.python.outputs.python-version }}
+        run: |
+          python standards/lotus-family/conformance/lotus_family_ci_observation.py \
+            --repository "$GITHUB_REPOSITORY" \
+            --ref "$LOTUS_REF" \
+            --commit-sha "$LOTUS_COMMIT_SHA" \
+            --workflow "$GITHUB_WORKFLOW" \
+            --workflow-run-id "$GITHUB_RUN_ID" \
+            --workflow-run-attempt "$GITHUB_RUN_ATTEMPT" \
+            --job "$GITHUB_JOB" \
+            --step "Run Lotus Family conformance suite" \
+            --command "python -m unittest discover -s standards/lotus-family/conformance -p 'test_*.py' -v" \
+            --test-target "standards/lotus-family/conformance/test_*.py" \
+            --conclusion "$LOTUS_CONCLUSION" \
+            --runner-os "$LOTUS_RUNNER_OS" \
+            --runner-arch "$LOTUS_RUNNER_ARCH" \
+            --python-version "$LOTUS_PYTHON_VERSION" \
+            --output artifacts/lotus-ci-memory/ci-causal-observation-v0.1.json
+
+      - name: Upload immutable CI causal observation
+        if: always()
+        uses: actions/upload-artifact@ea165f8d65b6e75b540449e92b4886f43607fa02 # v4.6.2
+        with:
+          name: lotus-ci-causal-observation-${{ github.run_id }}-${{ github.run_attempt }}
+          path: artifacts/lotus-ci-memory/ci-causal-observation-v0.1.json
+          if-no-files-found: error
+          retention-days: 30

standards/lotus-family/ci-memory/SCHEMA.md

@@ -0,0 +1,92 @@
+# CI Causal Memory v0.1
+
+CI Causal Memory records one immutable observation for each Lotus Family conformance run. It connects execution space and run time without allowing learned state to modify protected CI.
+
+## Safety boundary
+
+The observation layer is advisory and append-only.
+
+It may:
+
+- record exact run identity and execution location;
+- normalize a stable failure signature;
+- link later observations to prior runs;
+- support human-reviewed regression proposals.
+
+It may not:
+
+- rewrite workflows, tests, policies, or protected branches;
+- approve, merge, deploy, deliver, or close findings;
+- mark a causal hypothesis confirmed from correlation alone;
+- store secrets, raw environment values, or unbounded logs.
+
+`PASS != APPROVED != MERGED`.
+
+## Spacetime coordinates
+
+Every observation has a stable spatial path:
+
+```text
+repository
+  → ref
+  → exact commit
+  → workflow
+  → job
+  → step
+  → command/test target
+```
+
+Every observation also has a temporal identity:
+
+```text
+workflow run ID
+  → run attempt
+  → observed timestamp
+  → optional predecessor observation
+```
+
+## Causal states
+
+The first slice supports these deterministic learning states:
+
+- `observed_once`
+- `repeated`
+- `reproduced`
+- `fix_correlated`
+- `fix_validated`
+- `regression_protected`
+
+A single CI run always starts at `observed_once`. Promotion requires a separate trusted aggregator and explicit evidence.
+
+## Failure signature
+
+For non-success conclusions, the emitter computes SHA-256 over a canonical tuple:
+
+```text
+schema version
+repository
+workflow
+job
+step
+command
+conclusion
+reason code
+```
+
+The signature deliberately excludes timestamps, run IDs, secrets, and raw logs so equivalent failures can be linked across runs.
+
+## Artifact
+
+The workflow writes:
+
+```text
+artifacts/lotus-ci-memory/ci-causal-observation-v0.1.json
+```
+
+The artifact is uploaded with `if: always()` after the conformance step. The conformance step remains failure-gating; artifact generation cannot turn a failed test into a successful job.
+
+## Trust model
+
+The PR workflow can emit only its own immutable observation artifact. Durable cross-run aggregation belongs in a later default-branch `workflow_run` workflow that does not execute PR code.
+
+The initial artifact may contain caller/platform claims for repository, ref, and commit. Trusted repository/tree binding remains the responsibility of Lotus Family v0.2 materialization.

standards/lotus-family/ci-memory/ci-causal-memory-graph-v0.1.json

@@ -0,0 +1,138 @@
+{
+  "schema_version": "lotus.ci_causal_memory_graph.v0.1",
+  "graph_id": "ci-causal-memory-v0.1",
+  "model_kind": "causal_spacetime_learning_advisory",
+  "dimensions": {
+    "spatial": "Where an observation sits in repository, commit, workflow, job, step, command, test, and artifact topology",
+    "temporal": "How immutable runs precede, supersede, repeat, validate, or stale prior evidence",
+    "causal": "How observations support hypotheses, fixes, validations, and regression guards without equating correlation with cause",
+    "hierarchy": "How evidence, learning state, proposals, and human authority remain separated"
+  },
+  "node_columns": [
+    "id",
+    "type",
+    "space",
+    "time",
+    "authority"
+  ],
+  "nodes": [
+    ["space.repository", "location", "repository", "stable", "none"],
+    ["space.ref", "location", "ref", "run", "none"],
+    ["space.commit", "location", "commit", "run", "none"],
+    ["space.workflow", "location", "workflow", "run", "none"],
+    ["space.job", "location", "job", "run", "none"],
+    ["space.step", "location", "step", "run", "none"],
+    ["space.command", "location", "command", "run", "none"],
+    ["space.test_target", "location", "test", "run", "none"],
+    ["evidence.observation", "evidence", "artifact", "run", "advisory"],
+    ["evidence.failure_signature", "evidence", "memory", "cross_run", "advisory"],
+    ["time.prior_observation", "temporal", "memory", "prior", "none"],
+    ["time.current_observation", "temporal", "memory", "current", "none"],
+    ["time.evidence_stale", "temporal", "memory", "superseded", "none"],
+    ["memory.observed_once", "learning_state", "memory", "current", "advisory"],
+    ["memory.pattern_repeated", "learning_state", "memory", "cross_run", "advisory"],
+    ["cause.hypothesis", "causal_state", "memory", "cross_run", "advisory"],
+    ["cause.confirmed", "causal_state", "memory", "validated", "human_required"],
+    ["fix.applied", "change", "commit", "later", "human"],
+    ["fix.validated", "validation", "run", "later", "advisory"],
+    ["guard.regression_added", "guard", "test", "later", "human"],
+    ["memory.proposal_created", "proposal", "issue_or_draft_pr", "later", "human_required"],
+    ["authority.human_acceptance_required", "boundary", "governance", "always", "human"]
+  ],
+  "edge_columns": [
+    "id",
+    "source",
+    "target",
+    "relation",
+    "dimension"
+  ],
+  "edges": [
+    ["M01", "space.repository", "space.ref", "contains", "spatial"],
+    ["M02", "space.ref", "space.commit", "resolves_to_claim", "spatial"],
+    ["M03", "space.commit", "space.workflow", "evaluated_by", "spatial"],
+    ["M04", "space.workflow", "space.job", "contains", "spatial"],
+    ["M05", "space.job", "space.step", "contains", "spatial"],
+    ["M06", "space.step", "space.command", "executes", "spatial"],
+    ["M07", "space.command", "space.test_target", "tests", "spatial"],
+    ["M08", "space.test_target", "evidence.observation", "observed_at", "spatial"],
+    ["M09", "time.prior_observation", "time.current_observation", "preceded_by", "temporal"],
+    ["M10", "time.current_observation", "evidence.observation", "materializes", "temporal"],
+    ["M11", "evidence.observation", "evidence.failure_signature", "normalizes_to", "causal"],
+    ["M12", "evidence.failure_signature", "memory.observed_once", "first_seen_as", "temporal"],
+    ["M13", "evidence.failure_signature", "memory.pattern_repeated", "recurred_as", "temporal"],
+    ["M14", "memory.observed_once", "cause.hypothesis", "may_support", "causal"],
+    ["M15", "memory.pattern_repeated", "cause.hypothesis", "strengthens_without_confirming", "causal"],
+    ["M16", "cause.hypothesis", "cause.confirmed", "requires_reproduction_and_validation", "causal"],
+    ["M17", "cause.confirmed", "fix.applied", "mitigated_by", "causal"],
+    ["M18", "fix.applied", "fix.validated", "validated_by_later_run", "temporal"],
+    ["M19", "fix.validated", "guard.regression_added", "protected_by", "causal"],
+    ["M20", "memory.pattern_repeated", "memory.proposal_created", "proposes_regression", "causal"],
+    ["M21", "memory.proposal_created", "authority.human_acceptance_required", "requires", "hierarchy"],
+    ["M22", "cause.confirmed", "authority.human_acceptance_required", "requires", "hierarchy"],
+    ["M23", "guard.regression_added", "authority.human_acceptance_required", "requires", "hierarchy"],
+    ["M24", "time.evidence_stale", "cause.hypothesis", "invalidates_automatic_reuse", "temporal"],
+    ["M25", "cause.hypothesis", "authority.human_acceptance_required", "requires_before_action", "hierarchy"]
+  ],
+  "trajectories": [
+    {
+      "id": "new-failure",
+      "path": [
+        "space.repository",
+        "space.ref",
+        "space.commit",
+        "space.workflow",
+        "space.job",
+        "space.step",
+        "space.command",
+        "space.test_target",
+        "evidence.observation",
+        "evidence.failure_signature",
+        "memory.observed_once",
+        "cause.hypothesis",
+        "authority.human_acceptance_required"
+      ],
+      "outcome": "advisory_investigation"
+    },
+    {
+      "id": "recurrence",
+      "path": [
+        "time.prior_observation",
+        "time.current_observation",
+        "evidence.observation",
+        "evidence.failure_signature",
+        "memory.pattern_repeated",
+        "memory.proposal_created",
+        "authority.human_acceptance_required"
+      ],
+      "outcome": "advisory_regression_proposal"
+    },
+    {
+      "id": "validated-fix",
+      "path": [
+        "cause.hypothesis",
+        "cause.confirmed",
+        "fix.applied",
+        "fix.validated",
+        "guard.regression_added",
+        "authority.human_acceptance_required"
+      ],
+      "outcome": "human_reviewed_durable_guard"
+    },
+    {
+      "id": "stale-learning",
+      "path": [
+        "time.evidence_stale",
+        "cause.hypothesis",
+        "authority.human_acceptance_required"
+      ],
+      "outcome": "no_automatic_reuse"
+    }
+  ],
+  "invariants": {
+    "correlation_is_not_confirmation": true,
+    "single_run_cause_state": "unconfirmed",
+    "automatic_mutation_allowed": false,
+    "human_acceptance_required": true,
+    "pass_is_not_approval_or_merge": true
+  }
+}