Updated week 12 slides

header.tex

@@ -63,6 +63,6 @@
 Simulated futures from an ETS model
 \end{block}\end{textblock}}
 
-\def\fullwidth#1{\vspace*{0.2cm}\centerline{\includegraphics[height=27.1cm,width=16cm,keepaspectratio=true]{#1}}}
-\def\fullheight#1{\vspace*{0.2cm}\centerline{\includegraphics[height=7.65cm,width=25cm,keepaspectratio=true]{#1}}}
-\def\full#1{\vspace*{0.2cm}\centerline{\includegraphics[height=7.65cm,width=15cm,keepaspectratio=true]{#1}}}
+\def\fullwidth#1{\vspace*{-0.12cm}\centerline{\includegraphics[height=27.1cm,width=16cm,keepaspectratio=true]{#1}}}
+\def\fullheight#1{\vspace*{-0.12cm}\centerline{\includegraphics[height=7.65cm,width=25cm,keepaspectratio=true]{#1}}}
+\def\full#1{\vspace*{-0.12cm}\centerline{\includegraphics[height=7.65cm,width=15cm,keepaspectratio=true]{#1}}}

week12/slides.qmd

@@ -18,8 +18,6 @@ format:
 
 ```{r setup, include=FALSE}
 source(here::here("setup.R"))
-melsyd <- tsibbledata::ansett |>
-  filter(Airports == "MEL-SYD")
 ```
 
 # Assignment 1
@@ -77,7 +75,6 @@ to produce sensible forecasts. They want me to fix it.
 ## CASE STUDY 1: Paperware company
 
 ### Methods currently used
-\vspace*{0.2cm}
 
 A
 : 12 month average
@@ -113,10 +110,6 @@ K
   * The cost to government is determined by the number and types of drugs purchased. Currently nearly 1\% of GDP.
   * The total cost is budgeted based on forecasts of drug usage.
 
-## CASE STUDY 2: PBS
-
-\fullheight{pbs2}
-
 ## CASE STUDY 2: PBS
 
   * In 2001: \$4.5 billion budget, under-forecasted by \$800 million.
@@ -145,7 +138,8 @@ should this affect leasing and sales policies?
 ## CASE STUDY 4: Airline
 
 ```{r, echo=FALSE}
-melsyd |>
+tsibbledata::ansett |>
+  filter(Airports == "MEL-SYD", Class == "Economy") |>
   filter(Class == "Economy") |>
   autoplot(Passengers) +
   labs(
@@ -163,14 +157,12 @@ melsyd |>
 ### Additional information
 
   * They can provide a large amount of data on previous routes.
-  * Traffic is affected by school holidays, special events such as
-the Grand Prix, advertising campaigns, competition behaviour, etc.
-  * They have a highly capable team of people who are able to do
-most of the computing.
+  * Traffic is affected by school holidays, special events such as the Grand Prix, advertising campaigns, competition behaviour, etc.
+  * They have a highly capable team of people who are able to do most of the computing.
 
 # Exam
 
-## Exam: 5.00pm (AEST) 13 June
+## Exam: 5.00pm (AEST) 6 June
 \fontsize{13}{14}\sf
 
 Five Sections, all to be attempted.\vspace*{-0.1cm}
@@ -185,22 +177,22 @@ C, D, E
 : Benchmarks, ETS models, ARIMA models, Dynamic regression models, forecast evaluation.\pause
 
 * Interpretation of R output, but no coding.
-* Closed book
+* Closed book with ETS formula sheet
 * Allowed: a calculator, 1 A4 double-sided sheet of notes, 5 working sheets
 
 ## Preparing for the exam
 
-  - Exams from 2018--2022 on Moodle already.
-  - Solutions available from 5 June
-  - Exercises. Make sure you have done them all (especially the last two topics -- revise the lecture examples)!
+  - Exams from 2021--2023 on website.
+  - Solutions available from 1 June.
+  - Exercises. Make sure you have done them all (especially the last two topics).
   - Identify your weak points and practice them.
   - Write your own summary of the material.
   - Practice explaining the material to a class-mate.
 
 ## Help available
 
-  * See us during the consultation times (for details refer to the moodle page).
-  * Discuss on the moodle forum.
+  * See us during the consultation times (for details refer to the website).
+  * Discuss on the forum.
 
 ## Useful resources for forecasters
 \fontsize{14}{14}\sf
@@ -224,15 +216,15 @@ C, D, E
 Links to all of the above at **forecasters.org**
 
 ## IIF Best Student Award
-\fontsize{14}{16}\sf
+\fontsize{14}{15}\sf\vspace*{-0.2cm}
 
-  - https://forecasters.org/programs/research-awards/students/
+  - [forecasters.org/programs/research-awards/students/](https://forecasters.org/programs/research-awards/students/)
   - US$100
   - A certificate of achievement from the IIF
   - One year free membership of the Institute with all attendant benefits. Subscriptions to:
 
-    -   the International Journal of Forecasting
-    -   the practitioner journal: Foresight
+    -   the *International Journal of Forecasting*
+    -   the practitioner journal: *Foresight*
     -   The Oracle newsletter
 
 Discounts on conference and workshop fees, and links to a worldwide community of forecasters in many disciplines.