A1 link added

_freeze/assignments/A1/execute-results/html.json

@@ -2,7 +2,7 @@
   "hash": "52ed2c72c91ae4f8daa8336e7db58c5e",
   "result": {
     "engine": "knitr",
-    "markdown": "---\ntitle: Assignment 1\n---\n\n\n**You must provide forecasts for the following items:**\n\n  1. Google closing stock price on 20 March 2024 [[Data](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GOOG/)].\n  2. Maximum temperature at Melbourne airport on 10 April 2024 [[Data](http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/dwo/IDCJDW3049.latest.shtml)].\n  3. The difference in points (Collingwood minus Essendon) scored in the AFL match between Collingwood and Essendon for the Anzac Day clash. 25 April 2024 [[Data](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anzac_Day_match)].\n  4. The seasonally adjusted estimate of total employment for April 2024. ABS CAT 6202, to be released around mid May 2024 [[Data](https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/labour/employment-and-unemployment/labour-force-australia/latest-release)].\n  5. Google closing stock price on 22 May 2024 [[Data](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GOOG/)].\n\n**For each of these, give a point forecast and an 80% prediction interval, and explain in a couple of sentences how each was obtained.**\n\n* The [Data] links give you possible data to start with, but you are free to use any data you like.\n* There is no need to use any fancy models or sophisticated methods. Simple is better for this assignment. The methods you use should be understandable to any high school student.\n* Full marks will be awarded if you submit the required information, and are able to meaningfully justify your results in a couple of sentences in each case.\n* Once the true values in each case are available, we will come back to this exercise and see who did the best using the scoring method described in class.\n* The student with the lowest score is the winner of our forecasting competition, and will win a $50 cash prize.\n* The assignment mark is not dependent on your score.\n\n\n<br><br><hr><b>Due: 8 March 2024</b><br><a href=https://learning.monash.edu/mod/assign/view.php?id=???? class = 'badge badge-large badge-blue'><font size='+2'>&nbsp;&nbsp;<b>Submit</b>&nbsp;&nbsp;</font><br></a>\n",
+    "markdown": "---\ntitle: Assignment 1\n---\n\n\n**You must provide forecasts for the following items:**\n\n  1. Google closing stock price on 20 March 2024 [[Data](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GOOG/)].\n  2. Maximum temperature at Melbourne airport on 10 April 2024 [[Data](http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/dwo/IDCJDW3049.latest.shtml)].\n  3. The difference in points (Collingwood minus Essendon) scored in the AFL match between Collingwood and Essendon for the Anzac Day clash. 25 April 2024 [[Data](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anzac_Day_match)].\n  4. The seasonally adjusted estimate of total employment for April 2024. ABS CAT 6202, to be released around mid May 2024 [[Data](https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/labour/employment-and-unemployment/labour-force-australia/latest-release)].\n  5. Google closing stock price on 22 May 2024 [[Data](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GOOG/)].\n\n**For each of these, give a point forecast and an 80% prediction interval, and explain in a couple of sentences how each was obtained.**\n\n* The [Data] links give you possible data to start with, but you are free to use any data you like.\n* There is no need to use any fancy models or sophisticated methods. Simple is better for this assignment. The methods you use should be understandable to any high school student.\n* Full marks will be awarded if you submit the required information, and are able to meaningfully justify your results in a couple of sentences in each case.\n* Once the true values in each case are available, we will come back to this exercise and see who did the best using the scoring method described in class.\n* The student with the lowest score is the winner of our forecasting competition, and will win a $50 cash prize.\n* The assignment mark is not dependent on your score.\n\n\n<br><br><hr><b>Due: 8 March 2024</b><br><a href=https://learning.monash.edu/mod/quiz/view.php?id=2262362 class = 'badge badge-large badge-blue'><font size='+2'>&nbsp;&nbsp;<b>Submit</b>&nbsp;&nbsp;</font><br></a>\n",
     "supporting": [],
     "filters": [
       "rmarkdown/pagebreak.lua"

_freeze/assignments/Project/execute-results/html.json

@@ -2,7 +2,7 @@
   "hash": "2dc1e4f426524f9526895c6bbcaf5b29",
   "result": {
     "engine": "knitr",
-    "markdown": "---\ntitle: Retail Project\n---\n\n\n**Objective:** To forecast a real time series using ETS and ARIMA models.\n\n**Data:** Each student will be use a different time series, selected using their student ID number as follows. This is the same series that you used in [Assignment 2](A2.qmd).\n\n```r\n# Use your student ID as the seed\nset.seed(12345678)\nretail <- readr::read_rds(\"https://bit.ly/monashretaildata\") |>\n  filter(`Series ID` == sample(`Series ID`, 1))\n```\n\n**Assignment value:** This assignment is worth 20% of the overall unit assessment.\n\n**Report:**\n\nYou should produce forecasts of the series using ETS and ARIMA models. Write a report in Rmarkdown or Quarto format of your analysis explaining carefully what you have done and why you have done it. Your report should include the following elements.\n\n* A discussion of the statistical features of the original data, including the effect of COVID-19 on your series. [4 marks]\n* Explanation of transformations and differencing used. You should use a unit-root test as part of the discussion. [5 marks]\n* A description of the methodology used to create a short-list of appropriate ARIMA models and ETS models. Include discussion of AIC values as well as results from applying the models to a test-set consisting of the last 24 months of the data provided. [6 marks]\n* Choose one ARIMA model and one ETS model based on this analysis and show parameter estimates, residual diagnostics, forecasts and prediction intervals for both models. Diagnostic checking for both models should include ACF graphs and the Ljung-Box test. [8 marks]\n* Comparison of the results from each of your preferred models. Which method do you think gives the better forecasts? Explain with reference to the test-set. [2 marks]\n* Apply your two chosen models to the full data set, re-estimating the parameters but not changing the model structure. Produce out-of-sample point forecasts and 80% prediction intervals for each model for two years past the end of the data provided. [4 marks]\n* Obtain up-to-date data from the [ABS website](https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/industry/retail-and-wholesale-trade/retail-trade-australia) (Table 11). You may need to use the previous release of data, rather than the latest release. Compare your forecasts with the actual numbers. How well did you do? [5 marks]\n* A discussion of benefits and limitations of the models for your data. [3 marks]\n* Graphs should be properly labelled, including appropriate units of measurement. [3 marks]\n\n**Notes**\n\n* Your submission must include the Rmarkdown or Quarto file (.Rmd or .qmd), and should run without error.\n* There will be a 5 marks penalty if file does not run without error.\n* You may also include a knitted version of the document (HTML preferred), but it is not required.\n* When using the updated ABS data set, do not edit the downloaded file in any way.\n* There is no need to provide the updated ABS data with your submission.\n\n\n<br><br><hr><b>Due: 24 May 2024</b><br><a href=https://learning.monash.edu/mod/assign/view.php?id=2034167 class = 'badge badge-large badge-blue'><font size='+2'>&nbsp;&nbsp;<b>Submit</b>&nbsp;&nbsp;</font><br></a>\n",
+    "markdown": "---\ntitle: Retail Project\n---\n\n\n**Objective:** To forecast a real time series using ETS and ARIMA models.\n\n**Data:** Each student will be use a different time series, selected using their student ID number as follows. This is the same series that you used in [Assignment 2](A2.qmd).\n\n```r\n# Use your student ID as the seed\nset.seed(12345678)\nretail <- readr::read_rds(\"https://bit.ly/monashretaildata\") |>\n  filter(`Series ID` == sample(`Series ID`, 1))\n```\n\n**Assignment value:** This assignment is worth 20% of the overall unit assessment.\n\n**Report:**\n\nYou should produce forecasts of the series using ETS and ARIMA models. Write a report in Rmarkdown or Quarto format of your analysis explaining carefully what you have done and why you have done it. Your report should include the following elements.\n\n* A discussion of the statistical features of the original data, including the effect of COVID-19 on your series. [4 marks]\n* Explanation of transformations and differencing used. You should use a unit-root test as part of the discussion. [5 marks]\n* A description of the methodology used to create a short-list of appropriate ARIMA models and ETS models. Include discussion of AIC values as well as results from applying the models to a test-set consisting of the last 24 months of the data provided. [6 marks]\n* Choose one ARIMA model and one ETS model based on this analysis and show parameter estimates, residual diagnostics, forecasts and prediction intervals for both models. Diagnostic checking for both models should include ACF graphs and the Ljung-Box test. [8 marks]\n* Comparison of the results from each of your preferred models. Which method do you think gives the better forecasts? Explain with reference to the test-set. [2 marks]\n* Apply your two chosen models to the full data set, re-estimating the parameters but not changing the model structure. Produce out-of-sample point forecasts and 80% prediction intervals for each model for two years past the end of the data provided. [4 marks]\n* Obtain up-to-date data from the [ABS website](https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/industry/retail-and-wholesale-trade/retail-trade-australia) (Table 11). You may need to use the previous release of data, rather than the latest release. Compare your forecasts with the actual numbers. How well did you do? [5 marks]\n* A discussion of benefits and limitations of the models for your data. [3 marks]\n* Graphs should be properly labelled, including appropriate units of measurement. [3 marks]\n\n**Notes**\n\n* Your submission must include the Rmarkdown or Quarto file (.Rmd or .qmd), and should run without error.\n* There will be a 5 marks penalty if file does not run without error.\n* You may also include a knitted version of the document (HTML preferred), but it is not required.\n* When using the updated ABS data set, do not edit the downloaded file in any way.\n* There is no need to provide the updated ABS data with your submission.\n\n\n<br><br><hr><b>Due: 24 May 2024</b><br><a href=https://learning.monash.edu/mod/quiz/view.php?id=2034167 class = 'badge badge-large badge-blue'><font size='+2'>&nbsp;&nbsp;<b>Submit</b>&nbsp;&nbsp;</font><br></a>\n",
     "supporting": [],
     "filters": [
       "rmarkdown/pagebreak.lua"

assignments.csv

@@ -1,5 +1,5 @@
 Assignment, Due, Moodle, File
-Assignment 1, 2024-03-08, ????, "A1.qmd"
+Assignment 1, 2024-03-08, 2262362, "A1.qmd"
 Assignment 2, 2024-03-22, 2034165, "A2.qmd"
 Assignment 3, 2024-04-12, 2034169, "A3.qmd"
 Assignment 4, 2024-05-03, 2034170, "A4.qmd"

course_info.R

@@ -83,7 +83,8 @@ lastmon <- function(x) {
 assignments <- read_csv(here::here("assignments.csv")) |>
   mutate(
     Date = lastmon(Due),
-    Moodle = paste0("https://learning.monash.edu/mod/assign/view.php?id=", Moodle),
+    Moodle = paste0("https://learning.monash.edu/mod/",
+      c("quiz",rep("assign",3)), "/view.php?id=", Moodle),
     File = paste0("assignments/", File)
   )