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docs: distinguish change-certainty from classifier confidence (#75) - #86

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docs/issue-75-confidence-cap
Aug 9, 2026
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docs: distinguish change-certainty from classifier confidence (#75)#86
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docs/issue-75-confidence-cap

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@l0cka l0cka commented Aug 9, 2026

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Summary

  • Amends the four doc sites (README, AGENTS.md ×2, docs/collector.md) that claimed a universal 0.65 confidence cap on machine detections.
  • The cap (MACHINE_CONFIDENCE_CAP) applies to classifier-scored discoveries only; the direct-document fingerprint path stores relevanceScore: 1 by design — change-certainty for an already-tracked instrument, not classifier confidence.
  • No code changes; both detection kinds remain editor-gated, which the docs now state explicitly.

Finding 2 (dedup) — investigated, no defect

The 7 Aug double emission for qld-qgea-ai was not a dedup miss. Watch-state history shows the page hash went A→B→A: baseline 9a4acb… (29 Jul), the final Actions run retrieved 8c9197… at 00:47 UTC (seq 2 → …p86jgk), then the first Argus run retrieved 9a4acb… again at 03:01 UTC (seq 3 → …1oub5xk). Two distinct hash transitions, each correctly emitted once; the documented guarantee ("a version that reappears after intervening versions is reviewed again") describes exactly this case. One-time cutover artifact of both collectors running the same day from different environments.

Closes #75

🤖 Generated with Claude Code

The 0.65 MACHINE_CONFIDENCE_CAP applies to classifier-scored discoveries.
Direct-document change detections on tracked records store relevanceScore 1
by design — the score records certainty that a known instrument's page
changed. All four doc sites now say so instead of overclaiming a universal
cap. Both kinds of detection remain editor-gated.

Closes #75

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
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l0cka marked this pull request as ready for review August 9, 2026 08:31
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l0cka merged commit db9ca38 into main Aug 9, 2026
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l0cka deleted the docs/issue-75-confidence-cap branch August 9, 2026 08:31
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Direct-document detections carry relevanceScore 1, contradicting the documented 0.65 cap

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