DEA cost for Fischer-Tropsch, methanolisation #238

millingermarkus · 2025-09-08T14:40:30Z

Closes # (if applicable).

Changes proposed in this Pull Request

Changing from Agora values for methanolisation, Fischer-Tropsch and methanation to DEA values.

Checklist

Code changes are sufficiently documented; i.e. new functions contain docstrings and further explanations may be given in doc.
Data source for new technologies is clearly stated.
Newly introduced dependencies are added to environment.yaml (if applicable).
A note for the release notes doc/release_notes.rst of the upcoming release is included.
I consent to the release of this PR's code under the GPLv3 license.

…scher-Tropsch)

euronion

Thanks for the suggestions. There are a few things I have to ask you to recheck!

euronion · 2025-09-17T09:37:16Z

docs/release_notes.rst


 * Corrected CO2 content in biogas

+* Change to DEA costs for Fischer-Tropsch and methanolisation


You also changed the assumptions for methanation. Was this intentional?

Suggested change

* Change to DEA costs for Fischer-Tropsch and methanolisation

* Change to DEA costs for Fischer-Tropsch, methanolisation, and methanation

Yes it was intentional but apparently forgot to mention it in the release note. The Agora cost assumptions for F-T and methanolisation are on the far end of the optimistic range in literature, which is not consistent with the level of optimism for other fuel types we include. I judged this to apply also for methanation, which unfortunately does not exist in the DEA database used though.

The problem is that we had methanation also in the old PyPSA assumptions that are overwritten with the manual_input.csv. Which goes back even further with hard-to-track-down data provenance.

I'd prefer to keep methanation, even if it is overly optimistic. Maybe you can add a short comment saying that it is overly optimistic? Would that be a good compromise for you?

I left it as it was without the comment about it being optimistic.

euronion · 2025-09-17T09:38:37Z

outputs/costs_2020.csv

 FT fuel transport ship,investment,35000000.0,EUR,"Assume comparable tanker as for LOHC transport above, c.f. Runge et al 2020, Table 10, https://papers.ssrn.com/abstract=3623514 .",,2020.0
 FT fuel transport ship,lifetime,15.0,years,"Assume comparable tanker as for LOHC transport above, c.f. Runge et al 2020, Table 10, https://papers.ssrn.com/abstract=3623514 .",,2020.0
-Fischer-Tropsch,FOM,3.0,%/year,"Agora Energiewende (2018): The Future Cost of Electricity-Based Synthetic Fuels (https://www.agora-energiewende.de/en/publications/the-future-cost-of-electricity-based-synthetic-fuels-1/), section 6.3.2.1.",,2017.0
+Fischer-Tropsch,FOM,0.0008,%/year,"Danish Energy Agency, inputs/data_sheets_for_renewable_fuels.xlsx",102 Hydrogen to Jet:  Fixed O&M,2020.0


Can you recheck this number. Appears too low.

Definitely too low, will recalculate.

euronion · 2025-09-17T09:39:26Z

outputs/costs_2020.csv

 Fischer-Tropsch,capture rate,0.9,per unit,Assumption based on doi:10.1016/j.biombioe.2015.01.006,,
 Fischer-Tropsch,carbondioxide-input,0.36,t_CO2/MWh_FT,"DEA (2022): Technology Data for Renewable Fuels (https://ens.dk/en/our-services/projections-and-models/technology-data/technology-data-renewable-fuels), Hydrogen to Jet Fuel, Table 10 / pg. 267.","Input per 1t FT liquid fuels output, carbon efficiency increases with years (4.3, 3.9, 3.6, 3.3 t_CO2/t_FT from 2020-2050 with LHV 11.95 MWh_th/t_FT).",
-Fischer-Tropsch,efficiency,0.799,per unit,"Agora Energiewende (2018): The Future Cost of Electricity-Based Synthetic Fuels (https://www.agora-energiewende.de/en/publications/the-future-cost-of-electricity-based-synthetic-fuels-1/), section 6.3.2.2.",,2017.0
+Fischer-Tropsch,efficiency,0.65,per unit,"Danish Energy Agency, inputs/data_sheets_for_renewable_fuels.xlsx","102 Hydrogen to Jet:  FT Liquids Output,",2020.0


The efficiency is much lower, is this because of different fractions being considered as output in both publications?

Both are to liquid fuels. But in DEA there is a progression towards 75% by 2050, while the same value is assumed for all years from Agora, so it makes a large difference for 2020.

outputs/US/costs_2020.csv

euronion · 2025-09-17T09:42:11Z

outputs/US/costs_2020.csv

 methanol-to-olefins/aromatics,investment,2781006.4359,EUR/(t_HVC/h),"DECHEMA 2017: DECHEMA: Low carbon energy and feedstock for the European chemical industry (https://dechema.de/dechema_media/Downloads/Positionspapiere/Technology_study_Low_carbon_energy_and_feedstock_for_the_European_chemical_industry.pdf), Table 35",Assuming CAPEX of 1200 €/t actually given in €/(t/a).,2015.0,,
 methanol-to-olefins/aromatics,lifetime,30.0,years,Guesstimate,same as steam cracker,,,
 methanol-to-olefins/aromatics,methanol-input,18.03,MWh_MeOH/t_HVC,"DECHEMA 2017: DECHEMA: Low carbon energy and feedstock for the European chemical industry (https://dechema.de/dechema_media/Downloads/Positionspapiere/Technology_study_Low_carbon_energy_and_feedstock_for_the_European_chemical_industry.pdf), Sections 4.5 (for ethylene and propylene) and 4.6 (for BTX)","Weighted average: 2.83 t_MeOH/t_ethylene+propylene for 21.7 Mt of ethylene and 17 Mt of propylene, 4.2 t_MeOH/t_BTX for 15.7 Mt of BTX. Assuming 5.54 MWh_MeOH/t_MeOH. ",,,
-methanolisation,FOM,3.0,%/year,"Agora Energiewende (2018): The Future Cost of Electricity-Based Synthetic Fuels (https://www.agora-energiewende.de/en/publications/the-future-cost-of-electricity-based-synthetic-fuels-1/), section 6.3.2.1.",,2017.0,,


FOM is missing for methanolisation in your new dataset

euronion · 2025-09-17T09:43:00Z

outputs/US/costs_2020.csv

 methanolisation,hydrogen-input,1.138,MWh_H2/MWh_MeOH,"DECHEMA 2017: DECHEMA: Low carbon energy and feedstock for the European chemical industry (https://dechema.de/dechema_media/Downloads/Positionspapiere/Technology_study_Low_carbon_energy_and_feedstock_for_the_European_chemical_industry.pdf) , pg. 64.",189 kg_H2 per t_MeOH,,,
-methanolisation,investment,819108.478,EUR/MW_MeOH,"Agora Energiewende (2018): The Future Cost of Electricity-Based Synthetic Fuels (https://www.agora-energiewende.de/en/publications/the-future-cost-of-electricity-based-synthetic-fuels-1/), table 8: “Reference scenario”.","Well developed technology, no significant learning expected.",2017.0,,
-methanolisation,lifetime,20.0,years,"Danish Energy Agency, Technology Data for Renewable Fuels (04/2022), Data sheet “Methanol to Power”.",,2017.0,,
+methanolisation,investment,1345.9296,EUR/kW-methanol,"Danish Energy Agency, inputs/data_sheets_for_renewable_fuels.xlsx",98 Methanol from hydrogen:  Specific investment,2020.0,,


Suggested change

methanolisation,investment,1345.9296,EUR/kW-methanol,"Danish Energy Agency, inputs/data_sheets_for_renewable_fuels.xlsx",98 Methanol from hydrogen: Specific investment,2020.0,,

methanolisation,investment,1345.9296,EUR/kW_MeOH,"Danish Energy Agency, inputs/data_sheets_for_renewable_fuels.xlsx",98 Methanol from hydrogen: Specific investment,2020.0,,

Can you adjust the script, such that the unit is kW_MeOH for consistency?

outputs/costs_2050.csv

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millingermarkus · 2025-10-10T08:10:08Z

@euronion I made the updates, please have a look!

millingermarkus added 5 commits September 8, 2025 12:57

Add in Fischer-Tropsch efficiency from DEA

0b1271b

Remove Agora data from manual input (methanation, methanolisation, Fi…

5a69ce7

…scher-Tropsch)

Cost update methanolisation, Fischer-Tropsch, methanation

c2da6d8

Remove lock file

ef28139

Added release note

4b80932

euronion requested changes Sep 17, 2025

View reviewed changes

euronion linked an issue Sep 17, 2025 that may be closed by this pull request

Switch to DEA for Fischer-Tropsch and Methanol #237

Open

millingermarkus and others added 7 commits October 1, 2025 14:10

Correct Fischer-Tropsch Fixed cost

a67b6f1

Change unit for methanolisation to /kW_MeOH

5b2c182

Cleanup methanolisation data from DEA

f66ed97

Methanolisation data from DEA

17f04e1

Add back methanation assumptions from Agora

b7d918e

Merge branch 'master' into revert_DEA_cost

86dde7b

[pre-commit.ci] auto fixes from pre-commit.com hooks

a384363

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		* Corrected CO2 content in biogas

		* Change to DEA costs for Fischer-Tropsch and methanolisation

	methanolisation,investment,1345.9296,EUR/kW-methanol,"Danish Energy Agency, inputs/data_sheets_for_renewable_fuels.xlsx",98 Methanol from hydrogen: Specific investment,2020.0,,
	methanolisation,investment,1345.9296,EUR/kW_MeOH,"Danish Energy Agency, inputs/data_sheets_for_renewable_fuels.xlsx",98 Methanol from hydrogen: Specific investment,2020.0,,

DEA cost for Fischer-Tropsch, methanolisation #238

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millingermarkus commented Sep 8, 2025

Changes proposed in this Pull Request

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millingermarkus commented Oct 10, 2025

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