Harris CTC budget impact

us/irs/income/credits/ctc/harris/harris_ctc_budget.ipynb

@@ -0,0 +1,158 @@
+{
+ "cells": [
+  {
+   "cell_type": "code",
+   "execution_count": 1,
+   "metadata": {},
+   "outputs": [],
+   "source": [
+    "from policyengine_us import Microsimulation\n",
+    "from policyengine_core.reforms import Reform\n",
+    "import plotly.graph_objects as go\n",
+    "import numpy as np\n",
+    "from multiprocessing import Pool, cpu_count\n",
+    "from functools import lru_cache"
+   ]
+  },
+  {
+   "cell_type": "code",
+   "execution_count": 2,
+   "metadata": {},
+   "outputs": [],
+   "source": [
+    "\n",
+    "\n",
+    "reform = Reform.from_dict({\n",
+    "  \"gov.contrib.congress.delauro.american_family_act.baby_bonus\": {\n",
+    "    \"2024-01-01.2100-12-31\": 2400\n",
+    "  },\n",
+    "  \"gov.irs.credits.ctc.amount.arpa[0].amount\": {\n",
+    "    \"2023-01-01.2028-12-31\": 3600\n",
+    "  },\n",
+    "  \"gov.irs.credits.ctc.amount.arpa[1].amount\": {\n",
+    "    \"2023-01-01.2028-12-31\": 3000\n",
+    "  },\n",
+    "  \"gov.irs.credits.ctc.phase_out.arpa.in_effect\": {\n",
+    "    \"2023-01-01.2028-12-31\": True\n",
+    "  },\n",
+    "  \"gov.irs.credits.ctc.refundable.fully_refundable\": {\n",
+    "    \"2023-01-01.2028-12-31\": True\n",
+    "  }\n",
+    "}, country_id=\"us\")\n",
+    "\n",
+    "\n"
+   ]
+  },
+  {
+   "cell_type": "code",
+   "execution_count": 3,
+   "metadata": {},
+   "outputs": [],
+   "source": [
+    "# Initialize simulations\n",
+    "baseline = Microsimulation(dataset=\"enhanced_cps_2022\")\n",
+    "reformed = Microsimulation(reform=reform, dataset=\"enhanced_cps_2022\")"
+   ]
+  },
+  {
+   "cell_type": "code",
+   "execution_count": 4,
+   "metadata": {},
+   "outputs": [],
+   "source": [
+    "@lru_cache(maxsize=None)\n",
+    "def calculate_difference(year):\n",
+    "    try:\n",
+    "        baseline_person = baseline.calculate(\"household_net_income\", period=year)\n",
+    "        reformed_person = reformed.calculate(\"household_net_income\", period=year)\n",
+    "        difference = (reformed_person - baseline_person).sum()\n",
+    "        return year, difference\n",
+    "    except Exception as e:\n",
+    "        print(f\"Error calculating for year {year}: {str(e)}\")\n",
+    "        return year, None"
+   ]
+  },
+  {
+   "cell_type": "code",
+   "execution_count": 5,
+   "metadata": {},
+   "outputs": [],
+   "source": [
+    "def main():\n",
+    "    years = list(range(2025, 2035))\n",
+    "    \n",
+    "    # Calculate differences sequentially\n",
+    "    results = [calculate_difference(year) for year in years]\n",
+    "    \n",
+    "    # Filter out any None results from errors\n",
+    "    valid_results = [(year, diff) for year, diff in results if diff is not None]\n",
+    "    valid_years, differences = zip(*valid_results)\n",
+    "\n",
+    "    # Create Plotly bar chart\n",
+    "    fig = go.Figure(data=[\n",
+    "        go.Bar(name='Impact', x=valid_years, y=differences)\n",
+    "    ])\n",
+    "\n",
+    "    # Update layout\n",
+    "    fig.update_layout(\n",
+    "        title='Impact of CTC Reform on Household Net Income (2025-2034)',\n",
+    "        xaxis_title='Year',\n",
+    "        yaxis_title='Total Difference in Household Net Income',\n",
+    "        yaxis_tickformat='$,.0f',\n",
+    "    )\n",
+    "\n",
+    "    # Add hover template to show values in billions\n",
+    "    fig.update_traces(\n",
+    "        hovertemplate='Year: %{x}<br>Impact: $%{y:,.0f}<br>($%{y:,.1f} billion)',\n",
+    "        text=[f'${d/1e9:.1f}B' for d in differences],\n",
+    "        textposition='outside'\n",
+    "    )\n",
+    "\n",
+    "    # Show the plot\n",
+    "    fig.show()\n",
+    "\n",
+    "    # Print numerical results\n",
+    "    for year, difference in zip(valid_years, differences):\n",
+    "        print(f\"{year}: ${difference/1e9:.2f} billion\")"
+   ]
+  },
+  {
+   "cell_type": "code",
+   "execution_count": 6,
+   "metadata": {},
+   "outputs": [],
+   "source": [
+    "if __name__ == \"__main__\":\n",
+    "    main()"
+   ]
+  },
+  {
+   "cell_type": "code",
+   "execution_count": null,
+   "metadata": {},
+   "outputs": [],
+   "source": []
+  }
+ ],
+ "metadata": {
+  "kernelspec": {
+   "display_name": "policyengine",
+   "language": "python",
+   "name": "python3"
+  },
+  "language_info": {
+   "codemirror_mode": {
+    "name": "ipython",
+    "version": 3
+   },
+   "file_extension": ".py",
+   "mimetype": "text/x-python",
+   "name": "python",
+   "nbconvert_exporter": "python",
+   "pygments_lexer": "ipython3",
+   "version": "3.9.16"
+  }
+ },
+ "nbformat": 4,
+ "nbformat_minor": 2
+}