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exp354: short rollouts reduce precision but improve AUC on eval-val - #355

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@timodonnell timodonnell commented Oct 9, 2026 •

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On the current exp277 default (step 266344), none of the five 1,000-short-rollout settings beats 100 full rollouts on eval-val contact precision. The best short cap, L/2, scores 0.55003 all-range R versus 0.55743 for full rollouts: paired delta −0.00740 [−0.01094, −0.00396]. Its AUC improves from 0.93921 to 0.95565, so this is a precision-versus-global-ranking tradeoff.

Adds the reproducible contact-count sampler, nested 100-short controls, paired bootstrap analysis, per-input timings, raw-sample audit, report, and summary PDF. Only the 97 eval-val proteins were scored. The shared generation through max(20, L/2) took 25.0 minutes versus 6.9 minutes for the full baseline on one GB200; smaller-cap standalone runtimes were not measured.

Validation:

  • All 97,000 short and 9,700 full trajectories completed; zero unfinished full rollouts.
  • Reconstructed and matched all 1,067 vote matrices from raw samples; no out-of-ring position tokens.
  • Three parser boundary tests pass; all scripts compile. The fresh full baseline is within 0.005 of the published exp277 result.
  • Both Iris jobs succeeded; raw outputs, tables, and plots are published to the public HF bucket.

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Refs #354, closed as completed at the user's explicit request after the final report and summary PDF were posted.

@timodonnell timodonnell added the agent-generated Opened by an AI agent label Oct 9, 2026
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timodonnell marked this pull request as ready for review October 9, 2026 19:11
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📝 Code Review ✅ Completed 2026-10-09T19:16:40.443752Z d71d89d Draft marked ready
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claude Bot commented Oct 9, 2026 •

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Claude is reviewing this PR…

  • Read repo guidelines (AGENTS.md / CLAUDE.md)
  • Review experiment scripts (worker, contacts, analyze, build_summary)
  • Check results/data artifacts for consistency with README claims
  • Post review findings

View job run • branch codex/exp354-short-rollouts

@timodonnell timodonnell changed the title exp354: compare short-rollout consensus on eval-val exp354: short rollouts reduce precision but improve AUC on eval-val Oct 9, 2026

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💡 Codex Review

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Reviewed commit: d71d89d138

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(bundle / "targets.jsonl").write_text("".join(json.dumps(r) + "\n" for r in selected))
for name in ("worker.py", "contacts.py"):
shutil.copy2(HERE / name, bundle / name)
shutil.copy2(ROOT / "experiments/exp89_evals_contacts_v1_model_on_eval_set/compute_metrics.py", bundle)

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P2 Badge Move the reused metric helper into the eval library

When this experiment is submitted, it copies compute_metrics.py directly from exp89, making exp354 another consumer of stable experiment-local metric code and coupling reruns to another experiment's implementation. Promote these shared metric functions to the eval kind library and import or bundle them from there, as required once a helper has a second use case.

AGENTS.md reference: experiments/AGENTS.md:L256-L263

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