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NKSR Hackathon approaches

https://www.kaggle.com/competitions/nk-iv-prediction/ i didn't include any data files here

  • You should start by explore.ipynb

  • what worked best is matching.cpp which finds the nearest neighbour (based on rmse) like knn and imputes it's non nan values into - current row. Since the IV values does not change much in a second, it is supposed to find a temporal order. You need to prepare the data into csv with only call put iv columns without any header for this code to work.

  • then cubic_spline.ipynb for remaining ipynb (if during matching MAX_ITER is reached or rmse < THRESHOLD)

  • finally applying savgol filter or pca smoothing made predictions better (bot in final_day/pca_smoothing.ipynb)

  • final_day/lol.csv also works good, it uses xgb with iteratively improving the completely filled data (initially guessed through matching and cubic spline)

  • I tried many other things like svi or pchip instead of cubic spline but they did not fit correctly in a many rows.

  • I also tried using call put parity, training xgb on train data's each column to predict previous column, it works fine but not as good as cubic spline.

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All of my approaches for implied volatility prediction/imputation for nk securities research hackathon

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