updated versions of two papers

Author: tyleransom

research.html

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     <div class="panel" style="background-color: #F1F1F1; color: #666; padding: 10px;"> Detecting racial discrimination using observational data is challenging because of the presence of unobservables that may be correlated with race. Using data made public in the <i>SFFA v. Harvard</i> case, we estimate discrimination in a setting where this concern is mitigated. Namely, we show that there is a substantial penalty against Asian Americans in admissions with limited scope for omitted variables to overturn the result. This is because <i>(i)</i> Asian Americans are substantially stronger than whites on the observables associated with admissions and <i>(ii)</i> the richness of the data yields a model that predicts admissions extremely well. Our preferred model shows that Asian Americans would be admitted at a rate 19% higher absent this penalty. Controlling for one of the primary channels through which Asian American applicants are discriminated against|the personal rating|cuts the Asian American penalty by less than half, still leaving a substantial penalty. </div></p>
 
-    <p style="margin:0;" }><p > <a style="margin:0; font-size:100%; font-weight:bold" href="https://tyleransom.github.io/research/recruit_reject.pdf">Recruit to Reject? Harvard and African American Applicants</a> <br> with <a href="http://public.econ.duke.edu/~psarcidi/">Peter Arcidiacono</a> and <a href="http://www.terry.uga.edu/directory/economics/josh-kinsler">Josh Kinsler</a> <br> (updated February 18, 2020) <br> Also available as <a href="http://www.nber.org/papers/w26456">NBER Working Paper No. 26456</a> and <a href="https://www.iza.org/publications/dp/12750/recruit-to-reject-harvard-and-african-american-applicants">IZA Discussion Paper No. 12750</a> <br> Media Coverage at <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/11/29/us/harvard-admissions-recruit-letter.html"><i>New York Times</i></a>, <a href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2019/11/harvard-sentences-to-ponder.html"><i>Marginal Revolution</i></a>, <a href="https://www.insidehighered.com/admissions/article/2019/11/25/harvard-faces-scrutiny-black-applicants-it-rejects"><i>Inside Higher Ed</i></a>, <a href="https://www.thecrimson.com/article/2019/11/20/Arcidiacono-working-paper/"><i>Harvard Crimson</i></a>, <a href="https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/is-harvard-leading-on-black-applicants/"><i>National Review</i></a>, <a href="https://freebeacon.com/issues/harvard-recruited-to-reject-thousands-of-black-kids-study-shows/"><i>Washington Free Beacon</i></a>, <a href="https://www.jbhe.com/2019/11/study-charges-harvard-with-recruiting-black-applicants-who-have-no-chance-of-admission">The <i>Journal of Blacks in Higher Education</i></a> <br> Guest column at <a href="https://voxeu.org/article/recruiting-practices-elite-universities-case-harvard"><i>VoxEU</i></a> <br><button class="accordion"> 
+    <p style="margin:0;" }><p > <a style="margin:0; font-size:100%; font-weight:bold" href="https://tyleransom.github.io/research/recruit_reject.pdf">Recruit to Reject? Harvard and African American Applicants</a> <br> with <a href="http://public.econ.duke.edu/~psarcidi/">Peter Arcidiacono</a> and <a href="http://www.terry.uga.edu/directory/economics/josh-kinsler">Josh Kinsler</a> <br> <i>Under Review</i> (updated July 16, 2020) <br> Also available as <a href="http://www.nber.org/papers/w26456">NBER Working Paper No. 26456</a> and <a href="https://www.iza.org/publications/dp/12750/recruit-to-reject-harvard-and-african-american-applicants">IZA Discussion Paper No. 12750</a> <br> Media Coverage at <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/11/29/us/harvard-admissions-recruit-letter.html"><i>New York Times</i></a>, <a href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2019/11/harvard-sentences-to-ponder.html"><i>Marginal Revolution</i></a>, <a href="https://www.insidehighered.com/admissions/article/2019/11/25/harvard-faces-scrutiny-black-applicants-it-rejects"><i>Inside Higher Ed</i></a>, <a href="https://www.thecrimson.com/article/2019/11/20/Arcidiacono-working-paper/"><i>Harvard Crimson</i></a>, <a href="https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/is-harvard-leading-on-black-applicants/"><i>National Review</i></a>, <a href="https://freebeacon.com/issues/harvard-recruited-to-reject-thousands-of-black-kids-study-shows/"><i>Washington Free Beacon</i></a>, <a href="https://www.jbhe.com/2019/11/study-charges-harvard-with-recruiting-black-applicants-who-have-no-chance-of-admission">The <i>Journal of Blacks in Higher Education</i></a> <br> Guest column at <a href="https://voxeu.org/article/recruiting-practices-elite-universities-case-harvard"><i>VoxEU</i></a> <br><button class="accordion"> 
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     <div class="panel" style="background-color: #F1F1F1; color: #666; padding: 10px;"> The lawsuit Students For Fair Admissions v. Harvard University provided an unprecedented look at how an elite school makes admissions decisions. Using publicly released reports, we examine the preferences Harvard gives for recruited athletes, legacies, those on the dean's interest list, and children of faculty and staff (ALDCs). Among white admits, over 43% are ALDC. Among admits who are African American, Asian American, and Hispanic, the share is less than 16% each. Our model of admissions shows that roughly three quarters of white ALDC admits would have been rejected if they had been treated as white non-ALDCs. Removing preferences for athletes and legacies would significantly alter the racial distribution of admitted students, with the share of white admits falling and all other groups rising or remaining unchanged. </div></p>
 
-    <p style="margin:0;" }><p > <a style="margin:0; font-size:100%; font-weight:bold" href="https://tyleransom.github.io/research/divergent.pdf">Divergent: The Time Path of Legacy and Athlete Admissions at Harvard</a> <br> with <a href="http://public.econ.duke.edu/~psarcidi/">Peter Arcidiacono</a> and <a href="http://www.terry.uga.edu/directory/economics/josh-kinsler">Josh Kinsler</a> <br> <i>Under Review</i> (updated December 6, 2019) <br> Also available as <a href="http://www.nber.org/papers/w26315">NBER Working Paper No. 26315</a> and <a href="https://www.iza.org/publications/dp/12634/divergent-the-time-path-of-legacy-and-athlete-admissions-at-harvard">IZA Discussion Paper No. 12634</a> <br> <button class="accordion"> 
+    <p style="margin:0;" }><p > <a style="margin:0; font-size:100%; font-weight:bold" href="https://tyleransom.github.io/research/divergent.pdf">Divergent: The Time Path of Legacy and Athlete Admissions at Harvard</a> <br> with <a href="http://public.econ.duke.edu/~psarcidi/">Peter Arcidiacono</a> and <a href="http://www.terry.uga.edu/directory/economics/josh-kinsler">Josh Kinsler</a> <br> <i>Under Review</i> (updated July 16, 2020) <br> Also available as <a href="http://www.nber.org/papers/w26315">NBER Working Paper No. 26315</a> and <a href="https://www.iza.org/publications/dp/12634/divergent-the-time-path-of-legacy-and-athlete-admissions-at-harvard">IZA Discussion Paper No. 12634</a> <br> <button class="accordion"> 
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-    <div class="panel" style="background-color: #F1F1F1; color: #666; padding: 10px;"> Applications to elite US colleges have more than doubled over the past 20 years, with little change in the number of available seats. We examine how this increased competition has affected the admissions advantage that legacies and athletes (LA) receive. Using data on Harvard applications over 18 years, we show that non-legacy, non-athlete (NLNA) applications grew considerably and that LA applications remained  at. Yet, the share of LA admits remained stable, implying substantial increases in admissions advantages for legacies and athletes. We develop a simple theoretical model of university admissions to frame our empirical analysis. Viewed through the lens of the model, stability in the share of LA admits implies that elite colleges treat the number of LA admits and overall admit quality as complements. Our empirical analysis reveals that, if the admissions advantages for LA applicants had been constant throughout this period, there would have been a large increase in the number of minority admits. </div></p>
+    <div class="panel" style="background-color: #F1F1F1; color: #666; padding: 10px;"> Applications to elite US colleges have soared over the past 20 years, with little change in available seats. We examine how this increased competition affected the admissions advantage that legacies and athletes (LA) receive. Using 18 years of Harvard admissions data, we show that non-legacy, non-athlete (NLNA) applications expanded while LA applications remained flat. Yet, the share of LA admits remained stable, implying substantial increases in LA admissions advantages. Viewed through the lens of an admissions model, stability in the share of LA admits implies a strong degree of complementarity in the number of LA admits and overall admit quality. </div></p>
 
     <p style="margin:0;" }><p > <a style="margin:0; font-size:100%; font-weight:bold" href="https://tyleransom.github.io/research/roymajors.pdf">Selective Migration, Occupational Choice, and the Wage Returns to College Majors</a> <br> <i>Under Review</i> (updated June 12, 2020) <br> Also available as <a href="https://www.iza.org/publications/dp/13370/selective-migration-occupational-choice-and-the-wage-returns-to-college-majors">IZA Discussion Paper No. 13370</a> <br> <button class="accordion">
       Abstract