Evaluate method. - [ ] 1. evaluate short-term forecasting, based on historical data. Compare against: * https://epiforecasts.io approach (Cori et al, with additional data preprocessing) * https://arxiv.org/abs/2006.16487 * Look into covid forecasting methods from US (see van der Schaar paper ref) Evaluate based on predictive probability of future counts. - [ ] 2. evaluate based on inference of Rt. Use simulator here to evaluate: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.06.18.20134858v2.full.pdf
Evaluate method.
Evaluate based on predictive probability of future counts.
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.06.18.20134858v2.full.pdf