diff --git a/.DS_Store b/.DS_Store index 27e9311..aa14db5 100644 Binary files a/.DS_Store and b/.DS_Store differ diff --git a/_extensions/.DS_Store b/_extensions/.DS_Store index 421923f..5deb121 100644 Binary files a/_extensions/.DS_Store and b/_extensions/.DS_Store differ diff --git a/_freeze/index/execute-results/html.json b/_freeze/index/execute-results/html.json index 6045197..2671565 100644 --- a/_freeze/index/execute-results/html.json +++ b/_freeze/index/execute-results/html.json @@ -1,8 +1,8 @@ { - "hash": "c78c8df878c3bf526588a8c50c2783e1", + "hash": "8b4a32f39d27f0a221844c1f7ad7af6d", "result": { "engine": "knitr", - "markdown": "---\ntitle: \"ETF3231/5231 Business Forecasting\"\n---\n\n\n\n\n\n## Lecturer/Chief Examiner\n\n::: columns\n::: {.column width=\"30%\"}\n\n![](https://www.monash.edu/__data/assets/image/0005/3437735/sq-george-athanasopoulos-23.jpg){style=\"border-radius: 50%;\"}\n:::\n\n::: {.column width=\"70%\"}\n\n[**George Athanasopoulos**](https://research.monash.edu/en/persons/george-athanasopoulos).\n\nEmail: [George.Athanasopoulos@monash.edu](mailto:George.Athanasopoulos@monash.edu)\n:::\n\n:::\n\n## Consultations\n\n* Monday 3-4pm, [Ari Handayani](mailto:ari.handayani@monash.edu), Room XXX and [zoom](https://monash.zoom.us/j/84756747964?pwd=4tzGtq9i6gUNMmGWRHWoVgicB68cKs.1).\n* Tuesday, 1-2pm, [Ari Handayani](mailto:ari.handayani@monash.edu), Room XXX and [zoom](https://monash.zoom.us/j/84756747964?pwd=4tzGtq9i6gUNMmGWRHWoVgicB68cKs.1).\n* Tuesday, 3-4pm, Room H5.83, George Athanasopoulos, [zoom](https://monash.zoom.us/j/83278647125?pwd=ucZLFJg1AY5Tg4MMl0bqHeA4FWlu6M.1).\n* Wednesday, 1.30-2pm, [Kulan Ranasinghe](mailto:kulana@gmail.com), [zoom](https://monash.zoom.us/j/84756747964?pwd=4tzGtq9i6gUNMmGWRHWoVgicB68cKs.1)\n* Thursday, 9.30-10.30pm, [Yuru Sun](mailto:yuru.sun@monash.edu), [zoom](https://monash.zoom.us/j/84756747964?pwd=4tzGtq9i6gUNMmGWRHWoVgicB68cKs.1).\n* Friday 12-1pm, [Joan Tan (Head Tutor)](mailto:joan.tan@monash.edu), Room XXX and [zoom](https://monash.zoom.us/j/84756747964?pwd=4tzGtq9i6gUNMmGWRHWoVgicB68cKs.1).\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n## Weekly schedule\n\n* **Pre-class preparation**, [pre-recorded videos](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uwKiT1o1TkI&list=PLyCNZ_xXGzpm7W9jLqbIyBAiSO5jDwJeE), approximately 60 minutes.\n* **Seminars**, 10-11 Tuesday, [Building K Level 3, K321, CA_K_K321](https://www.monash.edu/__data/assets/pdf_file/0010/2658961/Caulfield-campus-map.pdf).\n* **Lectorials**, 11-12 Tuesday, [Building K Level 3, K321, CA_K_K321](https://www.monash.edu/__data/assets/pdf_file/0010/2658961/Caulfield-campus-map.pdf).\n* **Tutorials**, 50 minutes in class per week.\n\n\n\n\n\n|Week |Topic |Chapter |Assessments |\n|:------|:-----------------------------------|:--------------------------------|:-----------|\n|03 Mar |[Introduction to forecasting and R](./week1/index.html)|[1. Getting started](https://OTexts.com/fpp3/intro.html)| |\n|10 Mar |[Time series graphics](./week2/index.html)|[2. Time series graphics](https://OTexts.com/fpp3/graphics.html)|[IA1](assignments/A1.qmd)|\n|17 Mar |[Time series decomposition](./week3/index.html)|[3. Time series decomposition](https://OTexts.com/fpp3/decomposition.html)| |\n|24 Mar |[The forecaster's toolbox](./week4/index.html)|[5. The forecaster's toolbox](https://OTexts.com/fpp3/toolbox.html)|[GA1](assignments/G1.qmd)|\n|31 Mar |[Exponential smoothing](./week5/index.html)|[8. Exponential smoothing](https://OTexts.com/fpp3/expsmooth.html)| |\n|07 Apr |[Exponential smoothing](./week6/index.html)|[8. Exponential smoothing](https://OTexts.com/fpp3/expsmooth.html)|[IA2](assignments/A2.qmd)|\n|14 Apr |[ARIMA models](./week7/index.html) |[9. ARIMA models](https://OTexts.com/fpp3/arima.html)|[GA2](assignments/G2.qmd)|\n|21 Apr |Mid-semester break | | |\n|28 Apr |[ARIMA models](./week8/index.html) |[9. ARIMA models](https://OTexts.com/fpp3/arima.html)|[IA3](assignments/A3.qmd)|\n|05 May |[ARIMA models](./week9/index.html) |[9. ARIMA models](https://OTexts.com/fpp3/arima.html)|[GA3](assignments/G3.qmd)|\n|12 May |[Multiple regression and forecasting](./week10/index.html)|[7. Time series regression models](https://OTexts.com/fpp3/regression.html)| |\n|19 May |[Dynamic regression](./week11/index.html)|[10. Dynamic regression models](https://OTexts.com/fpp3/dynamic.html)|[IA4](assignments/A4.qmd)|\n|26 May |[Revision](./week12/index.html) |[Revision]() |[GA4](assignments/G4.qmd)|\n\n\n\n## Assessments\n\n::: {.callout-note}\nFinal exam 60%, 4x (ETF3231)/8x (ETF5231) assignments 40% \n:::\n\n**IA**: denotes an individual assignment to be completed by all students. \n\n**GA**: denotes a group assignment to be completed only by ETF5231 students\n\nThe due dates will be confirmed throughout the semester as our speed in covering topics will vary depending on student needs. \n_Please note: In these assessments, you must not use generative artificial intelligence (AI) to generate any materials or content in relation to the assessment tasks._\n\n|Weeks\t| Assessment Task\t| Weight|\n|:---|:---|:---|\n|2\t|IA1\t|5%|\n|4\t|GA1\t|5%|\n|6\t|IA2\t|7%|\n|7\t|GA2\t|7%|\n|8\t|IA3\t|10%|\n|9\t|GA3\t|10%|\n|11\t|IA4\t|18%|\n|12\t|GA4\t|18%|\n\n**ETF5231 students**: marks allocated to Assignments will be a combination between Individual Assignments and Group Assignments with a weights 0.7 and 0.3. So if you score 8/10 for IA3 and 5/10 for GA3 your mark for Assignment 3 will be $8*0.7+5*0.3=7.1$ out of 10. Hence, it is important to make sure that groups are performing at the highest standard.\n\n**Presentation requirements**: using Rmarkdown, and should converted the assignment into pdf output file unless otherwise specified.\n\n**Criteria for marking**: Provided the task has been completed and your code runs without errors, full marks will be awarded. Marks will be deducted for incomplete tasks or if there are errors.\n\n**Penalties for late lodgement**: The University has a standard penalty for late submission. See the Marking and Feedback Procedure for more information\n\n**Additional information**: Additional information regarding this assessment will be provided during the scheduled class time and on Moodle.\n\n::: {.callout-tip title=\"Group Participation - ETF5231 Students ONLY\"}\n\nGroup participation rules for group assignments (GAs): It is expected that all group members participate equally to the group assignments. It sometimes helps to keep a log of the tasks each member is to complete. This may assist in keeping some balance throughout the semester. To ensure that all group members are contributing the following rules will apply for all the group assignments throughout the semester.\n\nEvery group member has the right to express concern/dislike in terms of a group member being absent from group activities. This has to be expressed directly to me (and only me) via a formal email stating facts that have hindered the operations of the group (saying I do not like George because he is tall is not a reason for expressing concern). If at least two such complaints are submitted during the completion of an assignment, the group member concerned will receive a warning. If the situation is not improved during the next assignment and another two complaints are again submitted, the group member will be immediately removed from the group and will be expected to complete the rest of the group assignments alone. \n:::\n\n## R package installation\n\nHere is the code to install the R packages we will be using in this unit.\n\n```r\ninstall.packages(c(\"tidyverse\",\"fpp3\", \"GGally\"), dependencies = TRUE)\n```\n\n## Textbook\n\n::: columns\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n![](https://otexts.com/fpp3/figs/fpp3_front_cover.jpg){width=\"200px\" height=\"250px\"}\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n[Hyndman, R. J., & Athanasopoulos, G. (2021). Forecasting: principles and practice. OTexts.](https://otexts.com/fpp3/)\n:::\n:::\n", + "markdown": "---\ntitle: \"ETF3231/5231 Business Forecasting\"\n---\n\n\n\n\n\n\n## Lecturer/Chief Examiner\n\n::: columns\n::: {.column width=\"30%\"}\n\n![](https://www.monash.edu/__data/assets/image/0005/3437735/sq-george-athanasopoulos-23.jpg){style=\"border-radius: 50%;\"}\n:::\n\n::: {.column width=\"70%\"}\n\n[**George Athanasopoulos**](https://research.monash.edu/en/persons/george-athanasopoulos).\n\nEmail: [George.Athanasopoulos@monash.edu](mailto:George.Athanasopoulos@monash.edu)\n:::\n\n:::\n\n## Consultations\n\n* Monday 3-4pm, [Ari Handayani](mailto:ari.handayani@monash.edu), Room H4.63 and [zoom](https://monash.zoom.us/j/84756747964?pwd=4tzGtq9i6gUNMmGWRHWoVgicB68cKs.1).\n* Tuesday, 1-2pm, [Ari Handayani](mailto:ari.handayani@monash.edu), Room H4.63 and [zoom](https://monash.zoom.us/j/84756747964?pwd=4tzGtq9i6gUNMmGWRHWoVgicB68cKs.1).\n* Tuesday, 3-4pm, Room H5.83, George Athanasopoulos, [zoom](https://monash.zoom.us/j/83278647125?pwd=ucZLFJg1AY5Tg4MMl0bqHeA4FWlu6M.1).\n* Wednesday, 1.20-1.50pm, [Kulan Ranasinghe](mailto:kulana@gmail.com), [zoom](https://monash.zoom.us/j/84756747964?pwd=4tzGtq9i6gUNMmGWRHWoVgicB68cKs.1)\n* Thursday, 9.30-10.30pm, [Yuru Sun](mailto:yuru.sun@monash.edu), [zoom](https://monash.zoom.us/j/84756747964?pwd=4tzGtq9i6gUNMmGWRHWoVgicB68cKs.1).\n* Friday 12-1pm, [Joan Tan (Head Tutor)](mailto:joan.tan@monash.edu), Room 4.87 and [zoom](https://monash.zoom.us/j/84756747964?pwd=4tzGtq9i6gUNMmGWRHWoVgicB68cKs.1).\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n## Weekly schedule\n\n* **Pre-class preparation**, [pre-recorded videos](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uwKiT1o1TkI&list=PLyCNZ_xXGzpm7W9jLqbIyBAiSO5jDwJeE), approximately 60 minutes.\n* **Seminars**, 10-11 Tuesday, [Building K Level 3, K321, CA_K_K321](https://www.monash.edu/__data/assets/pdf_file/0010/2658961/Caulfield-campus-map.pdf).\n* **Lectorials**, 11-12 Tuesday, [Building K Level 3, K321, CA_K_K321](https://www.monash.edu/__data/assets/pdf_file/0010/2658961/Caulfield-campus-map.pdf).\n* **Tutorials**, 50 minutes in class per week.\n\n\n\n\n\n\n|Week |Topic |Chapter |Assessments |\n|:------|:-----------------------------------|:--------------------------------|:-----------|\n|03 Mar |[Introduction to forecasting and R](./week1/index.html)|[1. Getting started](https://OTexts.com/fpp3/intro.html)| |\n|10 Mar |[Time series graphics](./week2/index.html)|[2. Time series graphics](https://OTexts.com/fpp3/graphics.html)|[IA1](assignments/A1.qmd)|\n|17 Mar |[Time series decomposition](./week3/index.html)|[3. Time series decomposition](https://OTexts.com/fpp3/decomposition.html)| |\n|24 Mar |[The forecaster's toolbox](./week4/index.html)|[5. The forecaster's toolbox](https://OTexts.com/fpp3/toolbox.html)|[GA1](assignments/G1.qmd)|\n|31 Mar |[Exponential smoothing](./week5/index.html)|[8. Exponential smoothing](https://OTexts.com/fpp3/expsmooth.html)| |\n|07 Apr |[Exponential smoothing](./week6/index.html)|[8. Exponential smoothing](https://OTexts.com/fpp3/expsmooth.html)|[IA2](assignments/A2.qmd)|\n|14 Apr |[ARIMA models](./week7/index.html) |[9. ARIMA models](https://OTexts.com/fpp3/arima.html)|[GA2](assignments/G2.qmd)|\n|21 Apr |Mid-semester break | | |\n|28 Apr |[ARIMA models](./week8/index.html) |[9. ARIMA models](https://OTexts.com/fpp3/arima.html)|[IA3](assignments/A3.qmd)|\n|05 May |[ARIMA models](./week9/index.html) |[9. ARIMA models](https://OTexts.com/fpp3/arima.html)|[GA3](assignments/G3.qmd)|\n|12 May |[Multiple regression and forecasting](./week10/index.html)|[7. Time series regression models](https://OTexts.com/fpp3/regression.html)| |\n|19 May |[Dynamic regression](./week11/index.html)|[10. Dynamic regression models](https://OTexts.com/fpp3/dynamic.html)|[IA4](assignments/A4.qmd)|\n|26 May |[Revision](./week12/index.html) |[Revision]() |[GA4](assignments/G4.qmd)|\n\n\n\n\n## Assessments\n\n::: {.callout-note}\nFinal exam 60%, 4x (ETF3231)/8x (ETF5231) assignments 40% \n:::\n\n**IA**: denotes an individual assignment to be completed by all students. \n\n**GA**: denotes a group assignment to be completed only by ETF5231 students\n\nThe due dates will be confirmed throughout the semester as our speed in covering topics will vary depending on student needs. \n_Please note: In these assessments, you must not use generative artificial intelligence (AI) to generate any materials or content in relation to the assessment tasks._\n\n|Weeks\t| Assessment Task\t| Weight|\n|:---|:---|:---|\n|2\t|IA1\t|5%|\n|4\t|GA1\t|5%|\n|6\t|IA2\t|7%|\n|7\t|GA2\t|7%|\n|8\t|IA3\t|10%|\n|9\t|GA3\t|10%|\n|11\t|IA4\t|18%|\n|12\t|GA4\t|18%|\n\n**ETF5231 students**: marks allocated to Assignments will be a combination between Individual Assignments and Group Assignments with a weights 0.7 and 0.3. So if you score 8/10 for IA3 and 5/10 for GA3 your mark for Assignment 3 will be $8*0.7+5*0.3=7.1$ out of 10. Hence, it is important to make sure that groups are performing at the highest standard.\n\n**Presentation requirements**: using Rmarkdown, and should converted the assignment into pdf output file unless otherwise specified.\n\n**Criteria for marking**: Provided the task has been completed and your code runs without errors, full marks will be awarded. Marks will be deducted for incomplete tasks or if there are errors.\n\n**Penalties for late lodgement**: The University has a standard penalty for late submission. See the Marking and Feedback Procedure for more information\n\n**Additional information**: Additional information regarding this assessment will be provided during the scheduled class time and on Moodle.\n\n::: {.callout-tip title=\"Group Participation - ETF5231 Students ONLY\"}\n\nGroup participation rules for group assignments (GAs): It is expected that all group members participate equally to the group assignments. It sometimes helps to keep a log of the tasks each member is to complete. This may assist in keeping some balance throughout the semester. To ensure that all group members are contributing the following rules will apply for all the group assignments throughout the semester.\n\nEvery group member has the right to express concern/dislike in terms of a group member being absent from group activities. This has to be expressed directly to me (and only me) via a formal email stating facts that have hindered the operations of the group (saying I do not like George because he is tall is not a reason for expressing concern). If at least two such complaints are submitted during the completion of an assignment, the group member concerned will receive a warning. If the situation is not improved during the next assignment and another two complaints are again submitted, the group member will be immediately removed from the group and will be expected to complete the rest of the group assignments alone. \n:::\n\n## R package installation\n\nHere is the code to install the R packages we will be using in this unit.\n\n```r\ninstall.packages(c(\"tidyverse\",\"fpp3\", \"GGally\"), dependencies = TRUE)\n```\n\n## Textbook\n\n::: columns\n::: {.column width=\"40%\"}\n![](https://otexts.com/fpp3/figs/fpp3_front_cover.jpg){width=\"200px\" height=\"250px\"}\n:::\n::: {.column width=\"60%\"}\n[Hyndman, R. J., & Athanasopoulos, G. (2021). Forecasting: principles and practice. OTexts.](https://otexts.com/fpp3/)\n:::\n:::\n", "supporting": [], "filters": [ "rmarkdown/pagebreak.lua" diff --git a/index.qmd b/index.qmd index fd34690..b76a199 100644 --- a/index.qmd +++ b/index.qmd @@ -34,12 +34,12 @@ Email: [George.Athanasopoulos@monash.edu](mailto:George.Athanasopoulos@monash.ed ## Consultations -* Monday 3-4pm, [Ari Handayani](mailto:ari.handayani@monash.edu), Room XXX and [zoom](https://monash.zoom.us/j/84756747964?pwd=4tzGtq9i6gUNMmGWRHWoVgicB68cKs.1). -* Tuesday, 1-2pm, [Ari Handayani](mailto:ari.handayani@monash.edu), Room XXX and [zoom](https://monash.zoom.us/j/84756747964?pwd=4tzGtq9i6gUNMmGWRHWoVgicB68cKs.1). +* Monday 3-4pm, [Ari Handayani](mailto:ari.handayani@monash.edu), Room H4.63 and [zoom](https://monash.zoom.us/j/84756747964?pwd=4tzGtq9i6gUNMmGWRHWoVgicB68cKs.1). +* Tuesday, 1-2pm, [Ari Handayani](mailto:ari.handayani@monash.edu), Room H4.63 and [zoom](https://monash.zoom.us/j/84756747964?pwd=4tzGtq9i6gUNMmGWRHWoVgicB68cKs.1). * Tuesday, 3-4pm, Room H5.83, George Athanasopoulos, [zoom](https://monash.zoom.us/j/83278647125?pwd=ucZLFJg1AY5Tg4MMl0bqHeA4FWlu6M.1). -* Wednesday, 1.30-2pm, [Kulan Ranasinghe](mailto:kulana@gmail.com), [zoom](https://monash.zoom.us/j/84756747964?pwd=4tzGtq9i6gUNMmGWRHWoVgicB68cKs.1) +* Wednesday, 1.20-1.50pm, [Kulan Ranasinghe](mailto:kulana@gmail.com), [zoom](https://monash.zoom.us/j/84756747964?pwd=4tzGtq9i6gUNMmGWRHWoVgicB68cKs.1) * Thursday, 9.30-10.30pm, [Yuru Sun](mailto:yuru.sun@monash.edu), [zoom](https://monash.zoom.us/j/84756747964?pwd=4tzGtq9i6gUNMmGWRHWoVgicB68cKs.1). -* Friday 12-1pm, [Joan Tan (Head Tutor)](mailto:joan.tan@monash.edu), Room XXX and [zoom](https://monash.zoom.us/j/84756747964?pwd=4tzGtq9i6gUNMmGWRHWoVgicB68cKs.1). +* Friday 12-1pm, [Joan Tan (Head Tutor)](mailto:joan.tan@monash.edu), Room 4.87 and [zoom](https://monash.zoom.us/j/84756747964?pwd=4tzGtq9i6gUNMmGWRHWoVgicB68cKs.1). diff --git a/week12/index.html b/week12/index.html deleted file mode 100644 index 4229734..0000000 --- a/week12/index.html +++ /dev/null @@ -1,686 +0,0 @@ - - - - - - - - - -Week 12: Review – ETF3231/ETF5231 Business Forecasting - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
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Complete Exercises 1-7 from Section 10.7 of the book.

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