From 4a495f710d6a715981e8b21b9325e5d8b7e31d22 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Rob Hyndman Date: Tue, 21 May 2024 15:44:10 +1000 Subject: [PATCH] Updated week 12 slides --- header.tex | 6 +++--- week12/slides.qmd | 38 +++++++++++++++----------------------- 2 files changed, 18 insertions(+), 26 deletions(-) diff --git a/header.tex b/header.tex index 6111f6a..0678073 100644 --- a/header.tex +++ b/header.tex @@ -63,6 +63,6 @@ Simulated futures from an ETS model \end{block}\end{textblock}} -\def\fullwidth#1{\vspace*{0.2cm}\centerline{\includegraphics[height=27.1cm,width=16cm,keepaspectratio=true]{#1}}} -\def\fullheight#1{\vspace*{0.2cm}\centerline{\includegraphics[height=7.65cm,width=25cm,keepaspectratio=true]{#1}}} -\def\full#1{\vspace*{0.2cm}\centerline{\includegraphics[height=7.65cm,width=15cm,keepaspectratio=true]{#1}}} +\def\fullwidth#1{\vspace*{-0.12cm}\centerline{\includegraphics[height=27.1cm,width=16cm,keepaspectratio=true]{#1}}} +\def\fullheight#1{\vspace*{-0.12cm}\centerline{\includegraphics[height=7.65cm,width=25cm,keepaspectratio=true]{#1}}} +\def\full#1{\vspace*{-0.12cm}\centerline{\includegraphics[height=7.65cm,width=15cm,keepaspectratio=true]{#1}}} diff --git a/week12/slides.qmd b/week12/slides.qmd index 722d469..a8f8568 100644 --- a/week12/slides.qmd +++ b/week12/slides.qmd @@ -18,8 +18,6 @@ format: ```{r setup, include=FALSE} source(here::here("setup.R")) -melsyd <- tsibbledata::ansett |> - filter(Airports == "MEL-SYD") ``` # Assignment 1 @@ -77,7 +75,6 @@ to produce sensible forecasts. They want me to fix it. ## CASE STUDY 1: Paperware company ### Methods currently used -\vspace*{0.2cm} A : 12 month average @@ -113,10 +110,6 @@ K * The cost to government is determined by the number and types of drugs purchased. Currently nearly 1\% of GDP. * The total cost is budgeted based on forecasts of drug usage. -## CASE STUDY 2: PBS - -\fullheight{pbs2} - ## CASE STUDY 2: PBS * In 2001: \$4.5 billion budget, under-forecasted by \$800 million. @@ -145,7 +138,8 @@ should this affect leasing and sales policies? ## CASE STUDY 4: Airline ```{r, echo=FALSE} -melsyd |> +tsibbledata::ansett |> + filter(Airports == "MEL-SYD", Class == "Economy") |> filter(Class == "Economy") |> autoplot(Passengers) + labs( @@ -163,14 +157,12 @@ melsyd |> ### Additional information * They can provide a large amount of data on previous routes. - * Traffic is affected by school holidays, special events such as -the Grand Prix, advertising campaigns, competition behaviour, etc. - * They have a highly capable team of people who are able to do -most of the computing. + * Traffic is affected by school holidays, special events such as the Grand Prix, advertising campaigns, competition behaviour, etc. + * They have a highly capable team of people who are able to do most of the computing. # Exam -## Exam: 5.00pm (AEST) 13 June +## Exam: 5.00pm (AEST) 6 June \fontsize{13}{14}\sf Five Sections, all to be attempted.\vspace*{-0.1cm} @@ -185,22 +177,22 @@ C, D, E : Benchmarks, ETS models, ARIMA models, Dynamic regression models, forecast evaluation.\pause * Interpretation of R output, but no coding. -* Closed book +* Closed book with ETS formula sheet * Allowed: a calculator, 1 A4 double-sided sheet of notes, 5 working sheets ## Preparing for the exam - - Exams from 2018--2022 on Moodle already. - - Solutions available from 5 June - - Exercises. Make sure you have done them all (especially the last two topics -- revise the lecture examples)! + - Exams from 2021--2023 on website. + - Solutions available from 1 June. + - Exercises. Make sure you have done them all (especially the last two topics). - Identify your weak points and practice them. - Write your own summary of the material. - Practice explaining the material to a class-mate. ## Help available - * See us during the consultation times (for details refer to the moodle page). - * Discuss on the moodle forum. + * See us during the consultation times (for details refer to the website). + * Discuss on the forum. ## Useful resources for forecasters \fontsize{14}{14}\sf @@ -224,15 +216,15 @@ C, D, E Links to all of the above at **forecasters.org** ## IIF Best Student Award -\fontsize{14}{16}\sf +\fontsize{14}{15}\sf\vspace*{-0.2cm} - - https://forecasters.org/programs/research-awards/students/ + - [forecasters.org/programs/research-awards/students/](https://forecasters.org/programs/research-awards/students/) - US$100 - A certificate of achievement from the IIF - One year free membership of the Institute with all attendant benefits. Subscriptions to: - - the International Journal of Forecasting - - the practitioner journal: Foresight + - the *International Journal of Forecasting* + - the practitioner journal: *Foresight* - The Oracle newsletter Discounts on conference and workshop fees, and links to a worldwide community of forecasters in many disciplines.