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@@ -8,6 +8,8 @@ For most of the projects outlined here, you are expected to have taken [Probabil
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A1) **Prevalence estimation and causal inference through regression models with uncertain outcomes**
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Concentration areas: Biostatistics, Epidemiology.
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As the COVID-19 pandemic took the planet by storm, it became apparent the mass testing would be required in order to understand the extent of the virus's spread in the population.
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However, as the diagnostic tests are imperfect, the outcome data (Infected/Not-infected) comes with observation error, which must be correctly modelled.
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Whilst the general problem of prevalence estimation under outcome uncertainty has been studied for at least four decades, the interface with regression models saw a recent revival, in no small part due to COVID-19 (see [Gelman & Carpenter (2020)](http://www.stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/research/unpublished/specificity.pdf)).
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References:
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- In addition to the references already given, Lucas Moschen's [honours thesis](https://github.com/lucasmoschen/rds-bayesian-analysis-tcc) is great resource.
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A2) **Simultaneous nowcasting and Rt estimation for epidemic surveillance**
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Concentration areas: Biostatistics, Epidemiology.
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Timely inferences on the short term behaviour of epidemics is of crucial importance to effective decision-making.
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Many statistical approaches have been developed for predicting COVID-19 cases, hospitalisations and deaths.
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Disease reporting data in general and COVID-19 data in particular present a number of methodological challenges due to reporting issues such as underreporting and reporting delays.
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These then need to be statistically corrected to give a better picture of the actual numbers of cases at any given moment ([Bastos, Carvalho & Gomes (2021)](https://github.com/maxbiostat/papers/blob/master/PAPERS/2021_Bastos_Carvalho_Gomes.pdf)).
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Another aspect of epidemic surveillance is tracking the effective reproductive number (Rt) of the disease through time, as measure of risk of (exponential) disease spread.
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In this project, the student will couple the delay-correction nowcasting model of [Bastos et al. (2019)](https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/sim.8303) and the Rt estimation methods in the R package [EpiEstim](https://github.com/mrc-ide/EpiEstim) to create a unified framework for accurate Rt calculation by explicitly modelling data misreporting.
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This is joint work with Drs [Leo Bastos](https://lsbastos.github.io/) and [Marcelo Gomes](https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=b018FBIAAAAJ&hl=en&authuser=1&oi=ao).
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