add 2025_kikawa study (#62)

Author: jbloom

papers/2024_loes.md

@@ -23,7 +23,7 @@ keywords:
     - "Influenza"
     - "Immunity"
     - "Sequencing-based neutralization"
-selected: true
+selected: false
 ---
 
 ## Abstract

papers/2025_kikawa.md

@@ -0,0 +1,31 @@
+---
+layout: paper
+title: "High-throughput neutralization measurements correlate strongly with evolutionary success of human influenza strains"
+date: "2025-03-12"
+authors: 
+    - "Caroline Kikawa"
+    - "Andrea N Loes"
+    - "John Huddleston"
+    - "Marlin D Figgins"
+    - "Philippa Steinberg"
+    - "Tachianna Griffiths"
+    - "Elizabeth M Drapeau"
+    - "Heidi Peck"
+    - "Ian G Barr"
+    - "Janet A Englund"
+    - "Scott E Hensley"
+    - "Trevor Bedford"
+    - "Jesse D Bloom"
+journal: "bioRxiv"
+doi: "10.1101/2025.03.04.641544"
+link: "https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2025.03.04.641544v1"
+image: "/assets/papers/2025_kikawa.jpg"
+keywords:
+    - "Influenza"
+    - "Immunity"
+    - "Sequencing-based neutralization"
+selected: true
+---
+
+## Abstract
+Human influenza viruses rapidly acquire mutations in their hemagglutinin (HA) protein that erode neutralization by antibodies from prior exposures. Here, we use a sequencing-based assay to measure neutralization titers for 78 recent H3N2 HA strains against a large set of children and adult sera, measuring ~10,000 total titers. There is substantial person-to-person heterogeneity in the titers against different viral strains, both within and across age cohorts. The growth rates of H3N2 strains in the human population in 2023 are highly correlated with the fraction of sera with low titers against each strain. Notably, strain growth rates are less correlated with neutralization titers against pools of human sera, demonstrating the importance of population heterogeneity in shaping viral evolution. Overall, these results suggest that high-throughput neutralization measurements of human sera against many different viral strains can help explain the evolution of human influenza.

posts/2025-03-12_h3-seqneut.md

@@ -0,0 +1,20 @@
+---
+layout: post
+title: High-throughput neutralization measurements correlate strongly with evolutionary success of human influenza strains
+date: 2025-03-12
+author: Jesse Bloom
+---
+
+In a new study [posted on bioRxiv today](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2025.03.04.641544v1), we used high-throughput sequencing-based neutralization assays to measure ~10,000 titers representing the ability of different human sera to neutralize different H3N2 influenza strains.
+We then showed that these titers correlate with the actual evolutionary success of these viral strains in the real world, suggesting such experiments could be useful for helping inform vaccine-strain selection.
+
+---
+
+For accessible summaries of the study, see:
+
+  - [This Bluesky thread](https://bsky.app/profile/jbloomlab.bsky.social/post/3lk7rg263rc2u), which can be read more easily in [threaded form here](https://skywriter.blue/pages/jbloomlab.bsky.social/post/3lk7rg263rc2u)
+  - [This X thread](https://x.com/jbloom_lab/status/1899973909694595437)
+
+This study was the product of exciting work by Caroline Kikawa and Andrea Loes in our group to develop better ways to measure the ability of serum neutralization to many viral strains, and then apply that work to understand influenza evolution.
+
+We are especially excited to continue the work with newer libraries and sera sets chosen on a timeline that can actually inform the twice-per-year influenza vaccine strain selection choices.