Rebuilt for cross-posting link

Author: krivard

content/blog/2021-09-30-ensemble-analysis.html

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+<p><em>(This is cross-posted from the IIF blog; <a href="https://forecasters.org/blog/2021/09/28/on-the-predictability-of-covid-19/">see here</a> for the original blog post.)</em></p>
 <p>The <a href="https://covid19forecasthub.org/">US COVID-19 Forecast Hub</a> has served as a central repository for forecasts of COVID-19 in since April 2020, collecting predictions of state-level cases, hospitalizations and deaths for 4 weeks into the future. We conducted an analysis that evaluated probabilistic accuracy of the ensemble forecast generated by the Hub each week. Short-term forecasts of COVID-19 deaths showed reliable performance across all horizons. However, forecasts of cases and hospitalizations showed repeated, sustained lapses in accuracy for longer-term forecasts, especially at key points during some the larger pandemic waves. Therefore, starting in September 2021, the Hub decided to suspend the inclusion of 2 through 4 week ahead case forecasts and 15 through 28 day ahead hospitalization forecasts in the official ensemble that is generated every week. Modelers and forecasters should continue to innovate and investigate so we can continue to build our understanding of how models can be used to anticipate changes in COVID trends and serve the needs of decision-makers and the general public.</p>
 <div id="a-brief-history-of-covid-19-forecasting-in-the-us" class="section level2">
 <h2>A Brief History of COVID-19 Forecasting in the US</h2>