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evaluation.md

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Evaluation protocol

Question

Does the simplified kernel improve delivery outcomes, and does routing among GPT-5.6 Luna, Terra, and Sol add value beyond using Sol medium for every task?

Arms

  1. Sol medium without the playbook.
  2. Sol medium with the simplified kernel.
  3. Routed GPT-5.6 family with the simplified kernel.
  4. Sol Ultra high-compute comparison.

Corpus

Use frozen tasks across mechanical, bounded implementation, ambiguous architecture, high-risk review, and broad decomposable work. Each task includes a hidden reference outcome, deterministic checks where possible, and a fixed authority boundary. Run arms in fresh contexts, randomize order, and use at least three repetitions per task and arm when cost permits.

Measures

  • acceptance-criterion completion
  • critical and non-critical defects in the actual diff
  • focused fix cycles before acceptance
  • unsupported claims about tests, routes, or review
  • elapsed time and token usage when the runtime exposes them
  • total model cost or credits when the runtime exposes them
  • human intervention and unresolved decisions
  • accepted, rejected, and duplicative delegated lanes

Do not substitute narrative quality for code/evidence quality. Report unavailable telemetry as unavailable.

Review

Use task-specific deterministic checks first. Use blinded human review for consequential qualitative judgments. A fresh Sol context may provide an additional review signal, but same-family review is not labeled independent.

Decision rules

  • If arm 2 does not materially outperform arm 1 on drift, defects, or human burden, simplify the kernel further.
  • If arm 3 does not reduce total cost or time without degrading quality versus arm 2, remove most explicit tier routing.
  • If arm 4 dominates quality and total economics on representative work, prefer Sol Ultra and retain only the intent and evidence controls.
  • If confidence intervals overlap materially or the corpus is too small, record the result as inconclusive rather than claiming a win.

Reporting

Publish task-level results, aggregate medians and rates, route observations, failures, exclusions, and the frozen protocol version. Do not publish cost or quality claims that the collected evidence cannot reproduce.

Protocol version

Protocol version: 1.0.

Before the first run, record the materiality threshold for each decision metric and freeze it with the task corpus. Do not change the four arms or decision rules without recording a new protocol version.

Run sheet

Record one row for every arm, task, and repetition with these exact fields:

protocolVersion, taskId, taskStratum, arm, repetition, randomizedOrder,
promptSha256, baseCommit, requestedModel, requestedEffort, requestedTopology,
observedModel, observedEffort, observedRuntimePreset, routeSource,
startedAt, endedAt, elapsedSeconds, inputTokens, cachedTokens, outputTokens,
modelCostOrCredits, acceptancePassed, acceptanceTotal, criticalDefects,
nonCriticalDefects, fixCycles, unsupportedClaims, humanInterventions,
acceptedLanes, rejectedLanes, duplicativeLanes, outcome, exclusions, notes

Use unavailable for telemetry that the runtime does not expose. Record route observations rather than inferring them from the requested route.

Aggregate result table

Publish one row per arm and task stratum:

arm task stratum repetitions completion rate median acceptance rate critical-defect rate median fix cycles median human interventions median elapsed time median tokens median cost/credits completion confidence interval defect confidence interval cost/time confidence interval
example only example only 0 unavailable unavailable unavailable unavailable unavailable unavailable unavailable unavailable unavailable unavailable unavailable

Freeze the materiality threshold for every decision metric with the corpus before collecting results.