CFB-EPA_AKE.ipynb

{
 "cells": [
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 1,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
      "text/plain": [
       "'0.23.0'"
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 1,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "# note: old version of sklearn in conda environment\n",
    "\n",
    "import sklearn\n",
    "sklearn.__version__"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 2,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "import pandas as pd\n",
    "import numpy as np\n",
    "import xgboost as xgb\n",
    "import time\n",
    "from sklearn.ensemble import GradientBoostingClassifier\n",
    "import joblib\n",
    "# import statsmodels.api as sm\n",
    "# import statsmodels.formula.api as smf\n",
    "pd.options.display.max_columns = 999\n",
    "pd.options.display.max_rows = 999\n",
    "\n",
    "# first one here is from https://github.com/meysubb/cfbscrapR-MISC/blob/master/EPA_WPA/02-EPA-Model.R#L245\n",
    "reg_equation_cfb = 'next_drive_point ~ time_remaining + adjusted_yardline + C(down) + log_distance + goal_to_go + under_two + log_distance*C(down) + adjusted_yardline*C(down) + goal_to_go*log_distance'\n",
    "reg_equation_spl = 'drive_point ~ C(down) + distance + adjusted_yardline + C(down):distance + C(down):adjusted_yardline + period + margin'\n",
    "reg_equation_ake = 'drive_point ~ C(down) + distance + adjusted_yardline + C(down):distance + C(down):adjusted_yardline + period + margin + time_remaining'\n",
    "reg_equation = reg_equation_cfb\n",
    "\n",
    "\n"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 3,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "Total Games: 6644\n",
      "Total Drives: 171692\n",
      "Total Plays: 1210147\n"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "drive_data = pd.DataFrame()\n",
    "game_data = pd.DataFrame()\n",
    "play_data = pd.DataFrame()\n",
    "\n",
    "# downloaded files from collegefootballdata.com\n",
    "def retrieveCfbDataFile(endpoint, year):\n",
    "    return pd.read_csv(f\"data/{endpoint}/{year}.csv\", encoding='latin-1')\n",
    "\n",
    "for i in range(2012, 2020):\n",
    "    drive = retrieveCfbDataFile('drives',i)\n",
    "    drive['year'] = i\n",
    "    drive_data = drive_data.append(drive, sort=False)\n",
    "    \n",
    "    gm = retrieveCfbDataFile('games',i)\n",
    "    gm['year'] = i\n",
    "    game_data = game_data.append(gm, sort=False)\n",
    "    \n",
    "    plys = retrieveCfbDataFile('pbp',i)\n",
    "    plys['year'] = i\n",
    "    plys[\"play_id\"] = plys.id.astype(int)\n",
    "    plys.id = plys.id.astype(int)\n",
    "    play_data = play_data.append(plys, sort=False)\n",
    "\n",
    "print(f\"Total Games: {len(game_data)}\")\n",
    "print(f\"Total Drives: {len(drive_data)}\")\n",
    "print(f\"Total Plays: {len(play_data)}\")"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 4,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "Total FBS Plays: 1055257\n"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "# drop FCS games \n",
    "play_data = play_data[(play_data['offense_conference'].notna()) & (play_data['defense_conference'].notna())]\n",
    "print(f\"Total FBS Plays: {len(play_data)}\")"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 5,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "game_data['game_id'] = game_data['id']\n",
    "data = pd.merge(drive_data,game_data,on='game_id')\n",
    "data['drive_id'] = data['id_x']"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 6,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "pbp_data = pd.merge(play_data,data[['home_team','drive_id']],how='left',on='drive_id')"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 7,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "pbp_data['coef'] = (pbp_data['home_team'] == pbp_data['defense']).astype(int)\n",
    "pbp_data['adjusted_yardline'] = 100*(1-pbp_data['coef']) +  (2*pbp_data['coef']-1)*pbp_data['yard_line'] #yard_line is defined by home team in API\n",
    "pbp_data['margin'] = pbp_data['offense_score'] - pbp_data['defense_score']\n",
    "pbp_data.loc[pbp_data.down > 4, 'down'] = 4\n",
    "pbp_data.loc[pbp_data.period > 4, 'period'] = 5\n",
    "pbp_data = pbp_data.sort_values(by=\"play_id\", ascending=True)"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 8,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "# from cfbscrapR\n",
    "pbp_data[\"clock.minutes\"] = pbp_data.apply(lambda x: 15 + x[\"clock.minutes\"] if (x.period in [1,3]) else x[\"clock.minutes\"], axis=1)\n",
    "pbp_data[\"time_remaining\"] = pbp_data.apply(lambda x: (60 * x[\"clock.minutes\"] + x[\"clock.seconds\"]) if (x.period <= 4) else 0, axis=1)\n",
    "pbp_data[\"log_distance\"] = pbp_data.distance.apply(lambda x: np.log(0.5) if x == 0 else np.log(x))\n",
    "pbp_data[\"goal_to_go\"] = pbp_data.apply(lambda x: (x.distance >= (x.adjusted_yardline - 17)) if (\"Field Goal\" in x.play_type) else (x.distance >= x.adjusted_yardline), axis=1)\n",
    "pbp_data[\"under_two\"] = pbp_data.time_remaining.apply(lambda x: x <= 120)\n",
    "\n",
    "pbp_data[\"abs_diff\"] = abs(pbp_data.offense_score - pbp_data.defense_score)\n",
    "pbp_data[\"ScoreDiff_W\"] = (max(pbp_data.abs_diff) - pbp_data.abs_diff) / (max(pbp_data.abs_diff) - min(pbp_data.abs_diff))\n",
    "\n"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 9,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "data['drive_point'] = data.drive_result.apply(lambda x: 7 if (x == 'TD' or x == 'PUNT TD' or x == 'RUSHING TD' or x == 'PASSING TD') else (3 if (x == 'FG' or x == 'FG GOOD') else (-2 if x == 'SF' else -7 if ( x ==   'PUNT RETURN TD' or x == 'MISSED FG TD' or x == 'INT TD' or x == 'FUMBLE RETURN TD' or x == 'FUMBLE TD' or x == 'DOWNS TD' or x == 'INT RETURN TOUCH'  or x == 'FG MISSED TD' or x =='PUNT TD' or x == 'TURNOVER ON DOWNS TD' or x == 'DOWNS TD') else 0 )))"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 10,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "Index(['offense', 'offense_conference', 'defense', 'defense_conference',\n",
      "       'game_id', 'id_x', 'scoring', 'start_period', 'start_yardline',\n",
      "       'start_time.minutes', 'start_time.seconds', 'end_period',\n",
      "       'end_yardline', 'end_time.minutes', 'end_time.seconds',\n",
      "       'elapsed.minutes', 'elapsed.seconds', 'plays', 'yards', 'drive_result',\n",
      "       'year_x', 'id_y', 'season', 'week', 'season_type', 'start_date',\n",
      "       'neutral_site', 'conference_game', 'attendance', 'venue_id', 'venue',\n",
      "       'home_team', 'home_conference', 'home_points', 'home_line_scores[0]',\n",
      "       'home_line_scores[1]', 'home_line_scores[2]', 'home_line_scores[3]',\n",
      "       'home_post_win_prob', 'away_team', 'away_conference', 'away_points',\n",
      "       'away_line_scores[0]', 'away_line_scores[1]', 'away_line_scores[2]',\n",
      "       'away_line_scores[3]', 'away_post_win_prob', 'year_y', 'drive_id',\n",
      "       'drive_point'],\n",
      "      dtype='object')\n"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "print(data.columns)"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 11,
   "metadata": {
    "scrolled": true
   },
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "def find_game_next_score_half(drive_df):\n",
    "    drive_df.drive_id = drive_df.drive_id.astype(int)\n",
    "    drive_df = drive_df.sort_values(by=\"drive_id\", ascending=True).reset_index()\n",
    "    score_plays = drive_df[\n",
    "        (drive_df.scoring == True)\n",
    "        & (~drive_df.drive_result.str.contains(\"END OF\"))\n",
    "    ].drop_duplicates('drive_id').index.to_series()\n",
    "    \n",
    "    final_df = pd.DataFrame()\n",
    "    for x in range(0, len(drive_df)):\n",
    "        tmp_df = find_next_score(x, score_plays, drive_df)\n",
    "        final_df = final_df.append(tmp_df)\n",
    "#     print(final_df)\n",
    "    \n",
    "    final_df2 = pd.merge(drive_df, final_df, left_index=True, right_index=True)\n",
    "    final_df2['Drive_Score_Dist'] = final_df2.DSH - final_df2.drive_id.astype(int)\n",
    "    final_df2['Drive_Score_Dist_W'] = (max(final_df2.Drive_Score_Dist) - final_df2.Drive_Score_Dist) / (max(final_df2.Drive_Score_Dist) - min(final_df2.Drive_Score_Dist))\n",
    "    return final_df2\n",
    "\n",
    "def find_next_score(play_i, score_plays, dat_drive):\n",
    "    defense_tds = [\"FUMBLE RETURN TD\", \"FUMBLE TD\", \"INT RETURN TOUCH\", \"\"]\n",
    "    next_score_i = None\n",
    "    try:\n",
    "        next_score_i = score_plays[\n",
    "            score_plays >= play_i\n",
    "        ].iloc[0]\n",
    "    except IndexError:\n",
    "        next_score_i = None\n",
    "        \n",
    "#     print(f\"Checking play index: {play_i}\")\n",
    "#     print(f\"Checking next score index: {next_score_i}\")\n",
    "    try:\n",
    "        test = dat_drive.iloc[play_i]\n",
    "    except IndexError:\n",
    "        print(f\"play_i {play_i} out of bounds in dat_drive (size: {len(dat_drive)})\")\n",
    "        \n",
    "    if (next_score_i != None):\n",
    "        try:\n",
    "            test = dat_drive.iloc[next_score_i]\n",
    "        except IndexError:\n",
    "            print(f\"next_score_i {next_score_i} out of bounds in dat_drive (size: {len(dat_drive)})\")\n",
    "        \n",
    "        \n",
    "    if ((next_score_i == None) \n",
    "        or (dat_drive.iloc[play_i].start_period <= 2 and dat_drive.iloc[next_score_i].start_period in [3,4])\n",
    "       or (dat_drive.iloc[play_i].start_period in [3,4] and dat_drive.iloc[next_score_i].start_period > 4)):\n",
    "        score_drive = dat_drive.iloc[play_i].drive_id\n",
    "        next_score = 0\n",
    "        return pd.DataFrame({\"NSH\" : next_score, \"DSH\" : score_drive}, index=[play_i])\n",
    "    else:\n",
    "        next_score = 0\n",
    "        score_drive = dat_drive.iloc[next_score_i].drive_id\n",
    "        current_team = dat_drive.iloc[play_i].offense\n",
    "        \n",
    "        next_score_team = dat_drive.iloc[next_score_i].offense\n",
    "        if (dat_drive.iloc[next_score_i].drive_result in defense_tds):\n",
    "            next_score_team = dat_drive.iloc[next_score_i].defense\n",
    "        \n",
    "        if (\"RETURN TD\" in dat_drive.iloc[next_score_i].drive_result):\n",
    "            if (current_team == next_score_team):\n",
    "                next_score = -1 * dat_drive.iloc[next_score_i].drive_point\n",
    "            else:\n",
    "                next_score = dat_drive.iloc[next_score_i].drive_point\n",
    "        else:\n",
    "            if (current_team == next_score_team):\n",
    "                next_score = dat_drive.iloc[next_score_i].drive_point\n",
    "            else:\n",
    "                next_score = -1 * dat_drive.iloc[next_score_i].drive_point\n",
    "        return pd.DataFrame({\"NSH\" : next_score, \"DSH\" : score_drive}, index=[play_i])\n",
    "    \n",
    "data = find_game_next_score_half(data)\n",
    "# data19"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 12,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "171692\n",
      "97359\n",
      "17557\n"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "print(len(data))\n",
    "print(len(data[data.Drive_Score_Dist_W < 1.0]))\n",
    "print(len(data[data.NSH == -3]))"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 13,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "# data.loc[data.drive_point == 0, 'drive_point'] = data['NSH']"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 14,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
      "text/html": [
       "<div>\n",
       "<style scoped>\n",
       "    .dataframe tbody tr th:only-of-type {\n",
       "        vertical-align: middle;\n",
       "    }\n",
       "\n",
       "    .dataframe tbody tr th {\n",
       "        vertical-align: top;\n",
       "    }\n",
       "\n",
       "    .dataframe thead th {\n",
       "        text-align: right;\n",
       "    }\n",
       "</style>\n",
       "<table border=\"1\" class=\"dataframe\">\n",
       "  <thead>\n",
       "    <tr style=\"text-align: right;\">\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th>id</th>\n",
       "      <th>offense</th>\n",
       "      <th>offense_conference</th>\n",
       "      <th>defense</th>\n",
       "      <th>defense_conference</th>\n",
       "      <th>home</th>\n",
       "      <th>away</th>\n",
       "      <th>offense_score</th>\n",
       "      <th>defense_score</th>\n",
       "      <th>drive_id</th>\n",
       "      <th>period</th>\n",
       "      <th>clock.minutes</th>\n",
       "      <th>clock.seconds</th>\n",
       "      <th>yard_line</th>\n",
       "      <th>down</th>\n",
       "      <th>distance</th>\n",
       "      <th>yards_gained</th>\n",
       "      <th>play_type</th>\n",
       "      <th>play_text</th>\n",
       "      <th>ppa</th>\n",
       "      <th>year</th>\n",
       "      <th>play_id</th>\n",
       "      <th>home_team</th>\n",
       "      <th>coef</th>\n",
       "      <th>adjusted_yardline</th>\n",
       "      <th>margin</th>\n",
       "      <th>time_remaining</th>\n",
       "      <th>log_distance</th>\n",
       "      <th>goal_to_go</th>\n",
       "      <th>under_two</th>\n",
       "      <th>abs_diff</th>\n",
       "      <th>ScoreDiff_W</th>\n",
       "      <th>game_id</th>\n",
       "      <th>DSH</th>\n",
       "      <th>drive_point</th>\n",
       "      <th>drive_result</th>\n",
       "      <th>next_drive_point</th>\n",
       "      <th>Drive_Score_Dist_W</th>\n",
       "      <th>Total_W</th>\n",
       "      <th>Total_W_Scaled</th>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "  </thead>\n",
       "  <tbody>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>0</th>\n",
       "      <td>4005478320</td>\n",
       "      <td>Wake Forest</td>\n",
       "      <td>ACC</td>\n",
       "      <td>Army</td>\n",
       "      <td>FBS Independents</td>\n",
       "      <td>Wake Forest</td>\n",
       "      <td>Army</td>\n",
       "      <td>14</td>\n",
       "      <td>21</td>\n",
       "      <td>40054783210</td>\n",
       "      <td>2</td>\n",
       "      <td>2</td>\n",
       "      <td>14</td>\n",
       "      <td>39</td>\n",
       "      <td>2</td>\n",
       "      <td>10</td>\n",
       "      <td>15</td>\n",
       "      <td>Penalty</td>\n",
       "      <td>ARMY Penalty, personal foul (N/A) to the WFrst...</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>2014</td>\n",
       "      <td>4005478320</td>\n",
       "      <td>Wake Forest</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>61</td>\n",
       "      <td>-7</td>\n",
       "      <td>134</td>\n",
       "      <td>2.302585</td>\n",
       "      <td>False</td>\n",
       "      <td>False</td>\n",
       "      <td>7</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.915663</td>\n",
       "      <td>400547832</td>\n",
       "      <td>40054783210</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>INT</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>1.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>1.915663</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.936364</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>1</th>\n",
       "      <td>400547832102977603</td>\n",
       "      <td>Army</td>\n",
       "      <td>FBS Independents</td>\n",
       "      <td>Wake Forest</td>\n",
       "      <td>ACC</td>\n",
       "      <td>Wake Forest</td>\n",
       "      <td>Army</td>\n",
       "      <td>21</td>\n",
       "      <td>14</td>\n",
       "      <td>40054783210</td>\n",
       "      <td>2</td>\n",
       "      <td>2</td>\n",
       "      <td>23</td>\n",
       "      <td>65</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>38</td>\n",
       "      <td>Kickoff</td>\n",
       "      <td>Daniel Grochowski kickoff for 64 yds , Tyler H...</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>2014</td>\n",
       "      <td>400547832102977603</td>\n",
       "      <td>Wake Forest</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>65</td>\n",
       "      <td>7</td>\n",
       "      <td>143</td>\n",
       "      <td>-0.693147</td>\n",
       "      <td>False</td>\n",
       "      <td>False</td>\n",
       "      <td>7</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.915663</td>\n",
       "      <td>400547832</td>\n",
       "      <td>40054783210</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>INT</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>1.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>1.915663</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.936364</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>2</th>\n",
       "      <td>400547832102978501</td>\n",
       "      <td>Wake Forest</td>\n",
       "      <td>ACC</td>\n",
       "      <td>Army</td>\n",
       "      <td>FBS Independents</td>\n",
       "      <td>Wake Forest</td>\n",
       "      <td>Army</td>\n",
       "      <td>14</td>\n",
       "      <td>21</td>\n",
       "      <td>40054783210</td>\n",
       "      <td>2</td>\n",
       "      <td>2</td>\n",
       "      <td>14</td>\n",
       "      <td>39</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>10</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>Pass Incompletion</td>\n",
       "      <td>John Wolford pass incomplete to E.J. Scott</td>\n",
       "      <td>-1.107768</td>\n",
       "      <td>2014</td>\n",
       "      <td>400547832102978501</td>\n",
       "      <td>Wake Forest</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>61</td>\n",
       "      <td>-7</td>\n",
       "      <td>134</td>\n",
       "      <td>2.302585</td>\n",
       "      <td>False</td>\n",
       "      <td>False</td>\n",
       "      <td>7</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.915663</td>\n",
       "      <td>400547832</td>\n",
       "      <td>40054783210</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>INT</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>1.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>1.915663</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.936364</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>3</th>\n",
       "      <td>4005478910</td>\n",
       "      <td>Texas</td>\n",
       "      <td>Big 12</td>\n",
       "      <td>Oklahoma State</td>\n",
       "      <td>Big 12</td>\n",
       "      <td>Oklahoma State</td>\n",
       "      <td>Texas</td>\n",
       "      <td>13</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>4005478915</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>23</td>\n",
       "      <td>7</td>\n",
       "      <td>65</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>65</td>\n",
       "      <td>10</td>\n",
       "      <td>Penalty</td>\n",
       "      <td>OKLAHOMA ST Penalty, illegal block (10 Yards) ...</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>2014</td>\n",
       "      <td>4005478910</td>\n",
       "      <td>Oklahoma State</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>65</td>\n",
       "      <td>13</td>\n",
       "      <td>1387</td>\n",
       "      <td>4.174387</td>\n",
       "      <td>True</td>\n",
       "      <td>False</td>\n",
       "      <td>13</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.843373</td>\n",
       "      <td>400547891</td>\n",
       "      <td>4005478916</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>PUNT</td>\n",
       "      <td>-3</td>\n",
       "      <td>1.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>1.843373</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.881818</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>4</th>\n",
       "      <td>400547891101976604</td>\n",
       "      <td>Oklahoma State</td>\n",
       "      <td>Big 12</td>\n",
       "      <td>Texas</td>\n",
       "      <td>Big 12</td>\n",
       "      <td>Oklahoma State</td>\n",
       "      <td>Texas</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>13</td>\n",
       "      <td>4005478915</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>17</td>\n",
       "      <td>33</td>\n",
       "      <td>9</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>10</td>\n",
       "      <td>21</td>\n",
       "      <td>Pass Reception</td>\n",
       "      <td>Daxx Garman pass complete to Brandon Sheperd f...</td>\n",
       "      <td>1.129399</td>\n",
       "      <td>2014</td>\n",
       "      <td>400547891101976604</td>\n",
       "      <td>Oklahoma State</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>91</td>\n",
       "      <td>-13</td>\n",
       "      <td>1053</td>\n",
       "      <td>2.302585</td>\n",
       "      <td>False</td>\n",
       "      <td>False</td>\n",
       "      <td>13</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.843373</td>\n",
       "      <td>400547891</td>\n",
       "      <td>4005478916</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>PUNT</td>\n",
       "      <td>-3</td>\n",
       "      <td>1.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>1.843373</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.881818</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "  </tbody>\n",
       "</table>\n",
       "</div>"
      ],
      "text/plain": [
       "                   id         offense offense_conference         defense  \\\n",
       "0          4005478320     Wake Forest                ACC            Army   \n",
       "1  400547832102977603            Army   FBS Independents     Wake Forest   \n",
       "2  400547832102978501     Wake Forest                ACC            Army   \n",
       "3          4005478910           Texas             Big 12  Oklahoma State   \n",
       "4  400547891101976604  Oklahoma State             Big 12           Texas   \n",
       "\n",
       "  defense_conference            home   away  offense_score  defense_score  \\\n",
       "0   FBS Independents     Wake Forest   Army             14             21   \n",
       "1                ACC     Wake Forest   Army             21             14   \n",
       "2   FBS Independents     Wake Forest   Army             14             21   \n",
       "3             Big 12  Oklahoma State  Texas             13              0   \n",
       "4             Big 12  Oklahoma State  Texas              0             13   \n",
       "\n",
       "      drive_id  period  clock.minutes  clock.seconds  yard_line  down  \\\n",
       "0  40054783210       2              2             14         39     2   \n",
       "1  40054783210       2              2             23         65     1   \n",
       "2  40054783210       2              2             14         39     1   \n",
       "3   4005478915       1             23              7         65     1   \n",
       "4   4005478915       1             17             33          9     1   \n",
       "\n",
       "   distance  yards_gained          play_type  \\\n",
       "0        10            15            Penalty   \n",
       "1         0            38            Kickoff   \n",
       "2        10             0  Pass Incompletion   \n",
       "3        65            10            Penalty   \n",
       "4        10            21     Pass Reception   \n",
       "\n",
       "                                           play_text       ppa  year  \\\n",
       "0  ARMY Penalty, personal foul (N/A) to the WFrst...       NaN  2014   \n",
       "1  Daniel Grochowski kickoff for 64 yds , Tyler H...       NaN  2014   \n",
       "2         John Wolford pass incomplete to E.J. Scott -1.107768  2014   \n",
       "3  OKLAHOMA ST Penalty, illegal block (10 Yards) ...       NaN  2014   \n",
       "4  Daxx Garman pass complete to Brandon Sheperd f...  1.129399  2014   \n",
       "\n",
       "              play_id       home_team  coef  adjusted_yardline  margin  \\\n",
       "0          4005478320     Wake Forest     0                 61      -7   \n",
       "1  400547832102977603     Wake Forest     1                 65       7   \n",
       "2  400547832102978501     Wake Forest     0                 61      -7   \n",
       "3          4005478910  Oklahoma State     1                 65      13   \n",
       "4  400547891101976604  Oklahoma State     0                 91     -13   \n",
       "\n",
       "   time_remaining  log_distance  goal_to_go  under_two  abs_diff  ScoreDiff_W  \\\n",
       "0             134      2.302585       False      False         7     0.915663   \n",
       "1             143     -0.693147       False      False         7     0.915663   \n",
       "2             134      2.302585       False      False         7     0.915663   \n",
       "3            1387      4.174387        True      False        13     0.843373   \n",
       "4            1053      2.302585       False      False        13     0.843373   \n",
       "\n",
       "     game_id          DSH  drive_point drive_result  next_drive_point  \\\n",
       "0  400547832  40054783210            0          INT                 0   \n",
       "1  400547832  40054783210            0          INT                 0   \n",
       "2  400547832  40054783210            0          INT                 0   \n",
       "3  400547891   4005478916            0         PUNT                -3   \n",
       "4  400547891   4005478916            0         PUNT                -3   \n",
       "\n",
       "   Drive_Score_Dist_W   Total_W  Total_W_Scaled  \n",
       "0                 1.0  1.915663        0.936364  \n",
       "1                 1.0  1.915663        0.936364  \n",
       "2                 1.0  1.915663        0.936364  \n",
       "3                 1.0  1.843373        0.881818  \n",
       "4                 1.0  1.843373        0.881818  "
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 14,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "drive_stuff = data[['drive_id','game_id','DSH','drive_point','drive_result','NSH','Drive_Score_Dist_W']]\n",
    "drive_stuff.columns = ['drive_id','game_id','DSH','drive_point','drive_result','next_drive_point','Drive_Score_Dist_W']\n",
    "\n",
    "pbp_data = pd.merge(pbp_data, drive_stuff, left_on='drive_id',right_on='drive_id')\n",
    "pbp_data['Total_W'] = pbp_data.Drive_Score_Dist_W + pbp_data.ScoreDiff_W\n",
    "pbp_data['Total_W_Scaled'] = (pbp_data.Total_W - min(pbp_data.Total_W)) / (max(pbp_data.Total_W) - min(pbp_data.Total_W))\n",
    "pbp_data.head()"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 15,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "exclude_playtype = [\n",
    "#     'Kickoff',  \n",
    "#     'End Period',\n",
    "#     'Kickoff Return (Offense)',\n",
    "#     'Kickoff Return Touchdown', \n",
    "#     'End of Half', \n",
    "#     'Defensive 2pt Conversion',\n",
    "#     'Uncategorized', \n",
    "#     'End of Game', \n",
    "#     'Timeout',\n",
    "#     'placeholder'\n",
    "    \"Extra Point Missed\",\n",
    "    \"Extra Point Good\",\n",
    "    \"Timeout\",\n",
    "    \"End of Half\",\n",
    "    \"End of Game\",\n",
    "    \"Uncategorized\",\n",
    "    #\"Kickoff\",\n",
    "    \"Penalty\"\n",
    "    #\"Kickoff Return (Offense)\",\n",
    "    #\"Kickoff Return Touchdown\"\n",
    "]\n",
    "\n",
    "# game_end_drive = ['END OF HALF', 'END OF GAME', 'Uncategorized','END OF 4TH QUARTER', 'DOWNS TD','POSSESSION (FOR OT DRIVES)',\"END OF 4TH QUARTER\"]\n",
    "\n",
    "regression_df = pbp_data[\n",
    "    (pbp_data.down > 0)\n",
    "    & (pbp_data.year >= 2014)\n",
    "    & ~(pbp_data.play_type.isin(exclude_playtype)) \n",
    "    & (pbp_data.down.notna())\n",
    "    & (pbp_data.time_remaining.notna())\n",
    "    & (pbp_data.game_id.notna())\n",
    "    & (pbp_data.log_distance.notna() & pbp_data.log_distance != -float('inf'))\n",
    "    & (pbp_data.game_id != 400603838)\n",
    "].dropna()"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 16,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
      "text/plain": [
       "Index(['Intercept', 'C(down)[T.2]', 'C(down)[T.3]', 'C(down)[T.4]',\n",
       "       'goal_to_go[T.True]', 'under_two[T.True]', 'time_remaining',\n",
       "       'adjusted_yardline', 'adjusted_yardline:C(down)[T.2]',\n",
       "       'adjusted_yardline:C(down)[T.3]', 'adjusted_yardline:C(down)[T.4]',\n",
       "       'log_distance', 'log_distance:C(down)[T.2]',\n",
       "       'log_distance:C(down)[T.3]', 'log_distance:C(down)[T.4]',\n",
       "       'goal_to_go[T.True]:log_distance'],\n",
       "      dtype='object')"
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 16,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "from patsy import dmatrices\n",
    "# int_conv = regression_df.astype({\"drive_point\":int, \"down\": int, \"distance\":int, \"adjusted_yardline\": int, \"period\": int, \"margin\": int, \"time_remaining\": int})\n",
    "y, X = dmatrices(reg_equation, regression_df, return_type='dataframe')\n",
    "X.columns"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 17,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "# feature_cols = [\"Intercept\", \"C(down)[T.2]\", \"C(down)[T.3]\", \"C(down)[T.4]\", \"distance\", \"C(down)[T.2]:distance\", \"C(down)[T.3]:distance\", \"C(down)[T.4]:distance\", \"adjusted_yardline\", \"C(down)[T.2]:adjusted_yardline\", \"C(down)[T.3]:adjusted_yardline\", \"C(down)[T.4]:adjusted_yardline\", \"period\", \"margin\"]\n",
    "for c in X.columns:\n",
    "    X[c] = X[c].astype(int)\n",
    "y.next_drive_point = y.next_drive_point.astype(int)\n"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 18,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "X.columns = ['Intercept', 'down2', 'down3', 'down4',\n",
    "       'goal_to_go', 'under_two', 'time_remaining',\n",
    "       'adjusted_yardline', 'adjusted_yardline_down_2',\n",
    "       'adjusted_yardline_down_3', 'adjusted_yardline_down_4',\n",
    "       'log_distance', 'log_distance_down_2',\n",
    "       'log_distance_down_3', 'log_distance_down_4',\n",
    "       'goal_to_go_log_distance']"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 19,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "Base drive point\n",
      "  7    125425\n",
      "-7     78990\n",
      " 3     46858\n",
      "-3     27196\n",
      " 0     15874\n",
      " 2       929\n",
      "-2       569\n",
      "Name: next_drive_point, dtype: int64\n"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "print(\"Base drive point\\n\",y.next_drive_point.value_counts())"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 20,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "Mapped drive point\n",
      " 0    125425\n",
      "1     78990\n",
      "2     46858\n",
      "3     27196\n",
      "4     15874\n",
      "5       929\n",
      "6       569\n",
      "Name: next_drive_point, dtype: int64\n"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "class_to_score_mapping = {\n",
    "    0: 7,\n",
    "    1: -7,\n",
    "    2: 3,\n",
    "    3: -3,\n",
    "    4: 0,\n",
    "    5: 2,\n",
    "    6: -2\n",
    "}\n",
    "score_to_class_mapping = {\n",
    "    7: 0,\n",
    "    -7: 1,\n",
    "    3: 2,\n",
    "    -3: 3,\n",
    "    0: 4,\n",
    "    2: 5,\n",
    "    -2: 6\n",
    "}\n",
    "class_to_name_mapping = {\n",
    "    0: \"TD\",\n",
    "    1: \"Opp_TD\",\n",
    "    2: \"FG\",\n",
    "    3: \"Opp_FG\",\n",
    "    4: \"No_Score\",\n",
    "    5: \"Safety\",\n",
    "    6: \"Opp_Safety\"\n",
    "}\n",
    "score_to_name_mapping = {\n",
    "    7: \"TD\",\n",
    "    -7: \"Opp_TD\",\n",
    "    3: \"FG\",\n",
    "    -3: \"Opp_FG\",\n",
    "    0: \"No_Score\",\n",
    "    2: \"Safety\",\n",
    "    -2: \"Opp_Safety\"\n",
    "}\n",
    "y.next_drive_point = y.next_drive_point.apply(lambda x: score_to_class_mapping[x])\n",
    "print(\"Mapped drive point\\n\",y.next_drive_point.value_counts())"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 21,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "nrounds = 300\n",
    "params = {\n",
    "    'objective': 'multi:softprob',\n",
    "    'booster' : 'gbtree',\n",
    "    'eval_metric' : ['mlogloss'],\n",
    "    \"num_class\" : y.next_drive_point.nunique(),\n",
    "    \"eta\": 0.025,\n",
    "    \"gamma\": 1,\n",
    "    \"subsample\": 0.8,\n",
    "    \"colsample_bytree\": 0.8,\n",
    "    \"max_depth\": 5,\n",
    "    \"min_child_weight\": 1\n",
    "}\n",
    "\n",
    "dtrain = xgb.DMatrix(X, weight=regression_df.Total_W_Scaled, label=y.next_drive_point)\n",
    "\n",
    "xgb_model = xgb.train(params, dtrain, num_boost_round=nrounds, verbose_eval=2)\n",
    "# save for debug\n",
    "xgb_model.dump_model('xgb_dump.json', with_stats=True, dump_format='json')\n",
    "xgb_model.save_model('ep_model.json')"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 22,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "special_team_play_type = ['Kickoff','Punt','Kickoff Return (Offense)', 'Kickoff Return Touchdown','Field Goal Good', 'Field Goal Missed', 'Blocked Field Goal',\n",
    "                          'Blocked Punt','Punt Return Touchdown','Blocked Punt Touchdown','Missed Field Goal Return','Uncategorized', 'Missed Field Goal Return Touchdown','Defensive 2pt Conversion']\n",
    "timing_play_type = ['End Period','End of Game','Timeout','End of Half',\"END OF GAME\"]\n",
    "turnover_play_type = ['Fumble Recovery (Opponent)','Pass Interception Return','Interception Return Touchdown','Fumble Return Touchdown','Safety','Interception','Pass Interception','Punt',\n",
    "                     'Field Goal Missed', 'Blocked Field Goal', 'Blocked Punt','Punt Return Touchdown','Blocked Punt Touchdown','Missed Field Goal Return', 'Missed Field Goal Return Touchdown']\n",
    "regular_play_type = ['Pass', 'Rush', 'Sack', 'Pass Reception', 'Passing Touchdown','Pass Incompletion', 'Fumble Recovery (Own)','Rushing Touchdown','Pass Interception','Pass Completion']\n",
    "time_play = ['End Period','Timeout','End of Half','End of Game',\"END OF GAME\"]\n",
    "PAT_miss_type= [ 'PAT MISSED','PAT failed', 'PAT blocked', 'PAT BLOCKED']\n",
    "off_TD = ['Passing Touchdown','Rushing Touchdown']\n",
    "def_TD = ['Interception Return Touchdown','Fumble Return Touchdown', 'Missed Field Goal Return Touchdown','Blocked Punt Touchdown','Punt Return Touchdown']"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 23,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "925438\n"
     ]
    },
    {
     "data": {
      "text/html": [
       "<div>\n",
       "<style scoped>\n",
       "    .dataframe tbody tr th:only-of-type {\n",
       "        vertical-align: middle;\n",
       "    }\n",
       "\n",
       "    .dataframe tbody tr th {\n",
       "        vertical-align: top;\n",
       "    }\n",
       "\n",
       "    .dataframe thead th {\n",
       "        text-align: right;\n",
       "    }\n",
       "</style>\n",
       "<table border=\"1\" class=\"dataframe\">\n",
       "  <thead>\n",
       "    <tr style=\"text-align: right;\">\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th>id</th>\n",
       "      <th>offense</th>\n",
       "      <th>offense_conference</th>\n",
       "      <th>defense</th>\n",
       "      <th>defense_conference</th>\n",
       "      <th>home</th>\n",
       "      <th>away</th>\n",
       "      <th>offense_score</th>\n",
       "      <th>defense_score</th>\n",
       "      <th>drive_id</th>\n",
       "      <th>period</th>\n",
       "      <th>clock.minutes</th>\n",
       "      <th>clock.seconds</th>\n",
       "      <th>yard_line</th>\n",
       "      <th>down</th>\n",
       "      <th>distance</th>\n",
       "      <th>yards_gained</th>\n",
       "      <th>play_type</th>\n",
       "      <th>play_text</th>\n",
       "      <th>ppa</th>\n",
       "      <th>year</th>\n",
       "      <th>play_id</th>\n",
       "      <th>home_team</th>\n",
       "      <th>coef</th>\n",
       "      <th>adjusted_yardline</th>\n",
       "      <th>margin</th>\n",
       "      <th>time_remaining</th>\n",
       "      <th>log_distance</th>\n",
       "      <th>goal_to_go</th>\n",
       "      <th>under_two</th>\n",
       "      <th>abs_diff</th>\n",
       "      <th>ScoreDiff_W</th>\n",
       "      <th>game_id</th>\n",
       "      <th>DSH</th>\n",
       "      <th>drive_point</th>\n",
       "      <th>drive_result</th>\n",
       "      <th>next_drive_point</th>\n",
       "      <th>Drive_Score_Dist_W</th>\n",
       "      <th>Total_W</th>\n",
       "      <th>Total_W_Scaled</th>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "  </thead>\n",
       "  <tbody>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>0</th>\n",
       "      <td>4005478320</td>\n",
       "      <td>Wake Forest</td>\n",
       "      <td>ACC</td>\n",
       "      <td>Army</td>\n",
       "      <td>FBS Independents</td>\n",
       "      <td>Wake Forest</td>\n",
       "      <td>Army</td>\n",
       "      <td>14</td>\n",
       "      <td>21</td>\n",
       "      <td>40054783210</td>\n",
       "      <td>2</td>\n",
       "      <td>2</td>\n",
       "      <td>14</td>\n",
       "      <td>39</td>\n",
       "      <td>2</td>\n",
       "      <td>10</td>\n",
       "      <td>15</td>\n",
       "      <td>Penalty</td>\n",
       "      <td>ARMY Penalty, personal foul (N/A) to the WFrst...</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>2014</td>\n",
       "      <td>4005478320</td>\n",
       "      <td>Wake Forest</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>61</td>\n",
       "      <td>-7</td>\n",
       "      <td>134</td>\n",
       "      <td>2.302585</td>\n",
       "      <td>False</td>\n",
       "      <td>False</td>\n",
       "      <td>7</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.915663</td>\n",
       "      <td>400547832</td>\n",
       "      <td>40054783210</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>INT</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>1.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>1.915663</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.936364</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>2</th>\n",
       "      <td>400547832102978501</td>\n",
       "      <td>Wake Forest</td>\n",
       "      <td>ACC</td>\n",
       "      <td>Army</td>\n",
       "      <td>FBS Independents</td>\n",
       "      <td>Wake Forest</td>\n",
       "      <td>Army</td>\n",
       "      <td>14</td>\n",
       "      <td>21</td>\n",
       "      <td>40054783210</td>\n",
       "      <td>2</td>\n",
       "      <td>2</td>\n",
       "      <td>14</td>\n",
       "      <td>39</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>10</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>Pass Incompletion</td>\n",
       "      <td>John Wolford pass incomplete to E.J. Scott</td>\n",
       "      <td>-1.107768</td>\n",
       "      <td>2014</td>\n",
       "      <td>400547832102978501</td>\n",
       "      <td>Wake Forest</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>61</td>\n",
       "      <td>-7</td>\n",
       "      <td>134</td>\n",
       "      <td>2.302585</td>\n",
       "      <td>False</td>\n",
       "      <td>False</td>\n",
       "      <td>7</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.915663</td>\n",
       "      <td>400547832</td>\n",
       "      <td>40054783210</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>INT</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>1.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>1.915663</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.936364</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>3</th>\n",
       "      <td>4005478910</td>\n",
       "      <td>Texas</td>\n",
       "      <td>Big 12</td>\n",
       "      <td>Oklahoma State</td>\n",
       "      <td>Big 12</td>\n",
       "      <td>Oklahoma State</td>\n",
       "      <td>Texas</td>\n",
       "      <td>13</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>4005478915</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>23</td>\n",
       "      <td>7</td>\n",
       "      <td>65</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>65</td>\n",
       "      <td>10</td>\n",
       "      <td>Penalty</td>\n",
       "      <td>OKLAHOMA ST Penalty, illegal block (10 Yards) ...</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>2014</td>\n",
       "      <td>4005478910</td>\n",
       "      <td>Oklahoma State</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>65</td>\n",
       "      <td>13</td>\n",
       "      <td>1387</td>\n",
       "      <td>4.174387</td>\n",
       "      <td>True</td>\n",
       "      <td>False</td>\n",
       "      <td>13</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.843373</td>\n",
       "      <td>400547891</td>\n",
       "      <td>4005478916</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>PUNT</td>\n",
       "      <td>-3</td>\n",
       "      <td>1.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>1.843373</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.881818</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>4</th>\n",
       "      <td>400547891101976604</td>\n",
       "      <td>Oklahoma State</td>\n",
       "      <td>Big 12</td>\n",
       "      <td>Texas</td>\n",
       "      <td>Big 12</td>\n",
       "      <td>Oklahoma State</td>\n",
       "      <td>Texas</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>13</td>\n",
       "      <td>4005478915</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>17</td>\n",
       "      <td>33</td>\n",
       "      <td>9</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>10</td>\n",
       "      <td>21</td>\n",
       "      <td>Pass Reception</td>\n",
       "      <td>Daxx Garman pass complete to Brandon Sheperd f...</td>\n",
       "      <td>1.129399</td>\n",
       "      <td>2014</td>\n",
       "      <td>400547891101976604</td>\n",
       "      <td>Oklahoma State</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>91</td>\n",
       "      <td>-13</td>\n",
       "      <td>1053</td>\n",
       "      <td>2.302585</td>\n",
       "      <td>False</td>\n",
       "      <td>False</td>\n",
       "      <td>13</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.843373</td>\n",
       "      <td>400547891</td>\n",
       "      <td>4005478916</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>PUNT</td>\n",
       "      <td>-3</td>\n",
       "      <td>1.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>1.843373</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.881818</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>5</th>\n",
       "      <td>400547891101976605</td>\n",
       "      <td>Oklahoma State</td>\n",
       "      <td>Big 12</td>\n",
       "      <td>Texas</td>\n",
       "      <td>Big 12</td>\n",
       "      <td>Oklahoma State</td>\n",
       "      <td>Texas</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>13</td>\n",
       "      <td>4005478915</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>17</td>\n",
       "      <td>33</td>\n",
       "      <td>30</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>10</td>\n",
       "      <td>-15</td>\n",
       "      <td>Penalty</td>\n",
       "      <td>Hill, Tyreek rush for 5 yards to the OSU35 (Ha...</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>2014</td>\n",
       "      <td>400547891101976605</td>\n",
       "      <td>Oklahoma State</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>70</td>\n",
       "      <td>-13</td>\n",
       "      <td>1053</td>\n",
       "      <td>2.302585</td>\n",
       "      <td>False</td>\n",
       "      <td>False</td>\n",
       "      <td>13</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.843373</td>\n",
       "      <td>400547891</td>\n",
       "      <td>4005478916</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>PUNT</td>\n",
       "      <td>-3</td>\n",
       "      <td>1.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>1.843373</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.881818</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "  </tbody>\n",
       "</table>\n",
       "</div>"
      ],
      "text/plain": [
       "                   id         offense offense_conference         defense  \\\n",
       "0          4005478320     Wake Forest                ACC            Army   \n",
       "2  400547832102978501     Wake Forest                ACC            Army   \n",
       "3          4005478910           Texas             Big 12  Oklahoma State   \n",
       "4  400547891101976604  Oklahoma State             Big 12           Texas   \n",
       "5  400547891101976605  Oklahoma State             Big 12           Texas   \n",
       "\n",
       "  defense_conference            home   away  offense_score  defense_score  \\\n",
       "0   FBS Independents     Wake Forest   Army             14             21   \n",
       "2   FBS Independents     Wake Forest   Army             14             21   \n",
       "3             Big 12  Oklahoma State  Texas             13              0   \n",
       "4             Big 12  Oklahoma State  Texas              0             13   \n",
       "5             Big 12  Oklahoma State  Texas              0             13   \n",
       "\n",
       "      drive_id  period  clock.minutes  clock.seconds  yard_line  down  \\\n",
       "0  40054783210       2              2             14         39     2   \n",
       "2  40054783210       2              2             14         39     1   \n",
       "3   4005478915       1             23              7         65     1   \n",
       "4   4005478915       1             17             33          9     1   \n",
       "5   4005478915       1             17             33         30     1   \n",
       "\n",
       "   distance  yards_gained          play_type  \\\n",
       "0        10            15            Penalty   \n",
       "2        10             0  Pass Incompletion   \n",
       "3        65            10            Penalty   \n",
       "4        10            21     Pass Reception   \n",
       "5        10           -15            Penalty   \n",
       "\n",
       "                                           play_text       ppa  year  \\\n",
       "0  ARMY Penalty, personal foul (N/A) to the WFrst...       NaN  2014   \n",
       "2         John Wolford pass incomplete to E.J. Scott -1.107768  2014   \n",
       "3  OKLAHOMA ST Penalty, illegal block (10 Yards) ...       NaN  2014   \n",
       "4  Daxx Garman pass complete to Brandon Sheperd f...  1.129399  2014   \n",
       "5  Hill, Tyreek rush for 5 yards to the OSU35 (Ha...       NaN  2014   \n",
       "\n",
       "              play_id       home_team  coef  adjusted_yardline  margin  \\\n",
       "0          4005478320     Wake Forest     0                 61      -7   \n",
       "2  400547832102978501     Wake Forest     0                 61      -7   \n",
       "3          4005478910  Oklahoma State     1                 65      13   \n",
       "4  400547891101976604  Oklahoma State     0                 91     -13   \n",
       "5  400547891101976605  Oklahoma State     0                 70     -13   \n",
       "\n",
       "   time_remaining  log_distance  goal_to_go  under_two  abs_diff  ScoreDiff_W  \\\n",
       "0             134      2.302585       False      False         7     0.915663   \n",
       "2             134      2.302585       False      False         7     0.915663   \n",
       "3            1387      4.174387        True      False        13     0.843373   \n",
       "4            1053      2.302585       False      False        13     0.843373   \n",
       "5            1053      2.302585       False      False        13     0.843373   \n",
       "\n",
       "     game_id          DSH  drive_point drive_result  next_drive_point  \\\n",
       "0  400547832  40054783210            0          INT                 0   \n",
       "2  400547832  40054783210            0          INT                 0   \n",
       "3  400547891   4005478916            0         PUNT                -3   \n",
       "4  400547891   4005478916            0         PUNT                -3   \n",
       "5  400547891   4005478916            0         PUNT                -3   \n",
       "\n",
       "   Drive_Score_Dist_W   Total_W  Total_W_Scaled  \n",
       "0                 1.0  1.915663        0.936364  \n",
       "2                 1.0  1.915663        0.936364  \n",
       "3                 1.0  1.843373        0.881818  \n",
       "4                 1.0  1.843373        0.881818  \n",
       "5                 1.0  1.843373        0.881818  "
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 23,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "regular_play = pbp_data[~pbp_data.play_type.str.contains('Kickoff') & ~(pbp_data.play_type.isin(time_play)) &(pbp_data.down > 0) & (pbp_data.distance > 0)]\n",
    "# regular_play.to_csv(\"./regular_pbp.csv\", index=False,encoding=\"utf8\")\n",
    "print(len(regular_play.Total_W_Scaled))\n",
    "regular_play.head()"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 24,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "CFB_teams_list = pd.read_csv('https://raw.githubusercontent.com/903124/CFB_EPA_data/master/.ipynb_checkpoints/cfb_teams_list-checkpoint.csv',encoding='utf-8')"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 25,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
      "text/plain": [
       "array(['Abilene Christian', 'Air Force', 'Akron', 'Alabama',\n",
       "       'Alabama A&M', 'Albany', 'Alcorn State', 'Appalachian State',\n",
       "       'Arizona', 'Arizona State', 'Arkansas', 'Arkansas State',\n",
       "       'Arkansas-Pine Bluff', 'Army', 'Auburn', 'Austin Peay', 'BYU',\n",
       "       'Ball State', 'Baylor', 'Bethune-Cookman', 'Boise State',\n",
       "       'Boston College', 'Bowling Green', 'Buffalo', 'California',\n",
       "       'Campbell', 'Central Arkansas', 'Central Connecticut',\n",
       "       'Central Michigan', 'Charleston Southern', 'Charlotte',\n",
       "       'Cincinnati', 'Clemson', 'Coastal Carolina', 'Colorado',\n",
       "       'Colorado State', 'Connecticut', 'Delaware State', 'Drake', 'Duke',\n",
       "       'Duquesne', 'East Carolina', 'Eastern Illinois',\n",
       "       'Eastern Kentucky', 'Eastern Michigan', 'Eastern Washington',\n",
       "       'Elon', 'Florida', 'Florida Atlantic', 'Florida International',\n",
       "       'Florida State', 'Fordham', 'Fresno State', 'Gardner-Webb',\n",
       "       'Georgia', 'Georgia Southern', 'Georgia State', 'Georgia Tech',\n",
       "       'Grambling', \"Hawai'i\", 'Houston', 'Houston Baptist', 'Howard',\n",
       "       'Idaho', 'Idaho State', 'Illinois', 'Illinois State', 'Indiana',\n",
       "       'Iowa', 'Iowa State', 'Jackson State', 'James Madison', 'Kansas',\n",
       "       'Kansas State', 'Kennesaw State', 'Kent State', 'Kentucky', 'LSU',\n",
       "       'Lafayette', 'Lehigh', 'Liberty', 'Louisiana', 'Louisiana Monroe',\n",
       "       'Louisiana Tech', 'Louisville', 'Maine', 'Marshall', 'Maryland',\n",
       "       'McNeese', 'Memphis', 'Mercer', 'Miami', 'Miami (OH)', 'Michigan',\n",
       "       'Michigan State', 'Middle Tennessee', 'Minnesota',\n",
       "       'Mississippi State', 'Missouri', 'Missouri State', 'Monmouth',\n",
       "       'Murray State', 'NC State', 'Navy', 'Nebraska', 'Nevada',\n",
       "       'New Hampshire', 'New Mexico', 'New Mexico State', 'Nicholls',\n",
       "       'Norfolk State', 'North Carolina', 'North Carolina A&T',\n",
       "       'North Carolina Central', 'North Texas', 'Northern Arizona',\n",
       "       'Northern Illinois', 'Northern Iowa', 'Northwestern',\n",
       "       'Northwestern State', 'Notre Dame', 'Ohio', 'Ohio State',\n",
       "       'Oklahoma', 'Oklahoma State', 'Old Dominion', 'Ole Miss', 'Oregon',\n",
       "       'Oregon State', 'Penn State', 'Pittsburgh', 'Portland State',\n",
       "       'Prairie View', 'Purdue', 'Rhode Island', 'Rice', 'Richmond',\n",
       "       'Rutgers', 'SMU', 'San Diego State', 'San José State',\n",
       "       'Savannah State', 'South Alabama', 'South Carolina',\n",
       "       'South Carolina State', 'South Dakota', 'South Florida',\n",
       "       'Southeast Missouri State', 'Southeastern Louisiana', 'Southern',\n",
       "       'Southern Mississippi', 'Southern Utah', 'Stanford',\n",
       "       'Stephen F. Austin', 'Stony Brook', 'Syracuse', 'TCU', 'Temple',\n",
       "       'Tennessee', 'Tennessee State', 'Tennessee Tech', 'Texas',\n",
       "       'Texas A&M', 'Texas Southern', 'Texas State', 'Texas Tech',\n",
       "       'Toledo', 'Troy', 'Tulane', 'Tulsa', 'UAB', 'UC Davis', 'UCF',\n",
       "       'UCLA', 'UMass', 'UNLV', 'USC', 'UT Martin', 'UT San Antonio',\n",
       "       'UTEP', 'Utah', 'Utah State', 'VMI', 'Vanderbilt', 'Villanova',\n",
       "       'Virginia', 'Virginia Tech', 'Wake Forest', 'Washington',\n",
       "       'Washington State', 'Weber State', 'West Virginia',\n",
       "       'Western Kentucky', 'Western Michigan', 'Wisconsin', 'Wofford',\n",
       "       'Wyoming'], dtype=object)"
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 25,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "CFB_teams_list.full_name.unique()"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 26,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "regular_play = pd.merge(regular_play,CFB_teams_list,left_on=['offense'],right_on=['full_name'])\n",
    "regular_play.rename(columns={'abbreviation':'off_abbr', 'full_name': 'off_full_name'}, inplace=True)\n",
    "regular_play = pd.merge(regular_play,CFB_teams_list,left_on=['defense'],right_on=['full_name'])\n",
    "regular_play.rename(columns={'abbreviation':'def_abbr', 'full_name': 'def_full_name'}, inplace=True)"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 27,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
      "text/html": [
       "<div>\n",
       "<style scoped>\n",
       "    .dataframe tbody tr th:only-of-type {\n",
       "        vertical-align: middle;\n",
       "    }\n",
       "\n",
       "    .dataframe tbody tr th {\n",
       "        vertical-align: top;\n",
       "    }\n",
       "\n",
       "    .dataframe thead th {\n",
       "        text-align: right;\n",
       "    }\n",
       "</style>\n",
       "<table border=\"1\" class=\"dataframe\">\n",
       "  <thead>\n",
       "    <tr style=\"text-align: right;\">\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th>id</th>\n",
       "      <th>offense</th>\n",
       "      <th>offense_conference</th>\n",
       "      <th>defense</th>\n",
       "      <th>defense_conference</th>\n",
       "      <th>home</th>\n",
       "      <th>away</th>\n",
       "      <th>offense_score</th>\n",
       "      <th>defense_score</th>\n",
       "      <th>drive_id</th>\n",
       "      <th>period</th>\n",
       "      <th>clock.minutes</th>\n",
       "      <th>clock.seconds</th>\n",
       "      <th>yard_line</th>\n",
       "      <th>down</th>\n",
       "      <th>distance</th>\n",
       "      <th>yards_gained</th>\n",
       "      <th>play_type</th>\n",
       "      <th>play_text</th>\n",
       "      <th>ppa</th>\n",
       "      <th>year</th>\n",
       "      <th>play_id</th>\n",
       "      <th>home_team</th>\n",
       "      <th>coef</th>\n",
       "      <th>adjusted_yardline</th>\n",
       "      <th>margin</th>\n",
       "      <th>time_remaining</th>\n",
       "      <th>log_distance</th>\n",
       "      <th>goal_to_go</th>\n",
       "      <th>under_two</th>\n",
       "      <th>abs_diff</th>\n",
       "      <th>ScoreDiff_W</th>\n",
       "      <th>game_id</th>\n",
       "      <th>DSH</th>\n",
       "      <th>drive_point</th>\n",
       "      <th>drive_result</th>\n",
       "      <th>next_drive_point</th>\n",
       "      <th>Drive_Score_Dist_W</th>\n",
       "      <th>Total_W</th>\n",
       "      <th>Total_W_Scaled</th>\n",
       "      <th>off_full_name</th>\n",
       "      <th>off_abbr</th>\n",
       "      <th>def_full_name</th>\n",
       "      <th>def_abbr</th>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "  </thead>\n",
       "  <tbody>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>1</th>\n",
       "      <td>400547832102978501</td>\n",
       "      <td>Wake Forest</td>\n",
       "      <td>ACC</td>\n",
       "      <td>Army</td>\n",
       "      <td>FBS Independents</td>\n",
       "      <td>Wake Forest</td>\n",
       "      <td>Army</td>\n",
       "      <td>14</td>\n",
       "      <td>21</td>\n",
       "      <td>40054783210</td>\n",
       "      <td>2</td>\n",
       "      <td>2</td>\n",
       "      <td>14</td>\n",
       "      <td>39</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>10</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>Pass Incompletion</td>\n",
       "      <td>John Wolford pass incomplete to E.J. Scott</td>\n",
       "      <td>-1.107768</td>\n",
       "      <td>2014</td>\n",
       "      <td>400547832102978501</td>\n",
       "      <td>Wake Forest</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>61</td>\n",
       "      <td>-7</td>\n",
       "      <td>134</td>\n",
       "      <td>2.302585</td>\n",
       "      <td>False</td>\n",
       "      <td>False</td>\n",
       "      <td>7</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.915663</td>\n",
       "      <td>400547832</td>\n",
       "      <td>40054783210</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>INT</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>1.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>1.915663</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.936364</td>\n",
       "      <td>Wake Forest</td>\n",
       "      <td>WFrst</td>\n",
       "      <td>Army</td>\n",
       "      <td>Army</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>2</th>\n",
       "      <td>322660154017</td>\n",
       "      <td>Wake Forest</td>\n",
       "      <td>ACC</td>\n",
       "      <td>Army</td>\n",
       "      <td>FBS Independents</td>\n",
       "      <td>Wake Forest</td>\n",
       "      <td>Army</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>6</td>\n",
       "      <td>32266015402</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>26</td>\n",
       "      <td>35</td>\n",
       "      <td>18</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>10</td>\n",
       "      <td>6</td>\n",
       "      <td>Pass Completion</td>\n",
       "      <td>Tanner Price pass complete to Michael Campanar...</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.271467</td>\n",
       "      <td>2012</td>\n",
       "      <td>322660154017</td>\n",
       "      <td>Wake Forest</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>82</td>\n",
       "      <td>-6</td>\n",
       "      <td>1595</td>\n",
       "      <td>2.302585</td>\n",
       "      <td>False</td>\n",
       "      <td>False</td>\n",
       "      <td>6</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.927711</td>\n",
       "      <td>322660154</td>\n",
       "      <td>32266015402</td>\n",
       "      <td>7</td>\n",
       "      <td>RUSHING TD</td>\n",
       "      <td>7</td>\n",
       "      <td>1.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>1.927711</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.945455</td>\n",
       "      <td>Wake Forest</td>\n",
       "      <td>WFrst</td>\n",
       "      <td>Army</td>\n",
       "      <td>Army</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>3</th>\n",
       "      <td>322660154018</td>\n",
       "      <td>Wake Forest</td>\n",
       "      <td>ACC</td>\n",
       "      <td>Army</td>\n",
       "      <td>FBS Independents</td>\n",
       "      <td>Wake Forest</td>\n",
       "      <td>Army</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>6</td>\n",
       "      <td>32266015402</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>25</td>\n",
       "      <td>56</td>\n",
       "      <td>24</td>\n",
       "      <td>2</td>\n",
       "      <td>4</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>Pass Incompletion</td>\n",
       "      <td>Tanner Price pass incomplete to Sherman Raglan...</td>\n",
       "      <td>-0.654563</td>\n",
       "      <td>2012</td>\n",
       "      <td>322660154018</td>\n",
       "      <td>Wake Forest</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>76</td>\n",
       "      <td>-6</td>\n",
       "      <td>1556</td>\n",
       "      <td>1.386294</td>\n",
       "      <td>False</td>\n",
       "      <td>False</td>\n",
       "      <td>6</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.927711</td>\n",
       "      <td>322660154</td>\n",
       "      <td>32266015402</td>\n",
       "      <td>7</td>\n",
       "      <td>RUSHING TD</td>\n",
       "      <td>7</td>\n",
       "      <td>1.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>1.927711</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.945455</td>\n",
       "      <td>Wake Forest</td>\n",
       "      <td>WFrst</td>\n",
       "      <td>Army</td>\n",
       "      <td>Army</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>4</th>\n",
       "      <td>322660154019</td>\n",
       "      <td>Wake Forest</td>\n",
       "      <td>ACC</td>\n",
       "      <td>Army</td>\n",
       "      <td>FBS Independents</td>\n",
       "      <td>Wake Forest</td>\n",
       "      <td>Army</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>6</td>\n",
       "      <td>32266015402</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>25</td>\n",
       "      <td>45</td>\n",
       "      <td>24</td>\n",
       "      <td>3</td>\n",
       "      <td>4</td>\n",
       "      <td>47</td>\n",
       "      <td>Pass Completion</td>\n",
       "      <td>Tanner Price pass complete to Brandon Terry fo...</td>\n",
       "      <td>4.083093</td>\n",
       "      <td>2012</td>\n",
       "      <td>322660154019</td>\n",
       "      <td>Wake Forest</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>76</td>\n",
       "      <td>-6</td>\n",
       "      <td>1545</td>\n",
       "      <td>1.386294</td>\n",
       "      <td>False</td>\n",
       "      <td>False</td>\n",
       "      <td>6</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.927711</td>\n",
       "      <td>322660154</td>\n",
       "      <td>32266015402</td>\n",
       "      <td>7</td>\n",
       "      <td>RUSHING TD</td>\n",
       "      <td>7</td>\n",
       "      <td>1.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>1.927711</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.945455</td>\n",
       "      <td>Wake Forest</td>\n",
       "      <td>WFrst</td>\n",
       "      <td>Army</td>\n",
       "      <td>Army</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>5</th>\n",
       "      <td>322660154020</td>\n",
       "      <td>Wake Forest</td>\n",
       "      <td>ACC</td>\n",
       "      <td>Army</td>\n",
       "      <td>FBS Independents</td>\n",
       "      <td>Wake Forest</td>\n",
       "      <td>Army</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>6</td>\n",
       "      <td>32266015402</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>25</td>\n",
       "      <td>25</td>\n",
       "      <td>71</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>10</td>\n",
       "      <td>10</td>\n",
       "      <td>Rush</td>\n",
       "      <td>Michael Campanaro rush for 10 yards to the Arm...</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>2012</td>\n",
       "      <td>322660154020</td>\n",
       "      <td>Wake Forest</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>29</td>\n",
       "      <td>-6</td>\n",
       "      <td>1525</td>\n",
       "      <td>2.302585</td>\n",
       "      <td>False</td>\n",
       "      <td>False</td>\n",
       "      <td>6</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.927711</td>\n",
       "      <td>322660154</td>\n",
       "      <td>32266015402</td>\n",
       "      <td>7</td>\n",
       "      <td>RUSHING TD</td>\n",
       "      <td>7</td>\n",
       "      <td>1.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>1.927711</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.945455</td>\n",
       "      <td>Wake Forest</td>\n",
       "      <td>WFrst</td>\n",
       "      <td>Army</td>\n",
       "      <td>Army</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "  </tbody>\n",
       "</table>\n",
       "</div>"
      ],
      "text/plain": [
       "                   id      offense offense_conference defense  \\\n",
       "1  400547832102978501  Wake Forest                ACC    Army   \n",
       "2        322660154017  Wake Forest                ACC    Army   \n",
       "3        322660154018  Wake Forest                ACC    Army   \n",
       "4        322660154019  Wake Forest                ACC    Army   \n",
       "5        322660154020  Wake Forest                ACC    Army   \n",
       "\n",
       "  defense_conference         home  away  offense_score  defense_score  \\\n",
       "1   FBS Independents  Wake Forest  Army             14             21   \n",
       "2   FBS Independents  Wake Forest  Army              0              6   \n",
       "3   FBS Independents  Wake Forest  Army              0              6   \n",
       "4   FBS Independents  Wake Forest  Army              0              6   \n",
       "5   FBS Independents  Wake Forest  Army              0              6   \n",
       "\n",
       "      drive_id  period  clock.minutes  clock.seconds  yard_line  down  \\\n",
       "1  40054783210       2              2             14         39     1   \n",
       "2  32266015402       1             26             35         18     1   \n",
       "3  32266015402       1             25             56         24     2   \n",
       "4  32266015402       1             25             45         24     3   \n",
       "5  32266015402       1             25             25         71     1   \n",
       "\n",
       "   distance  yards_gained          play_type  \\\n",
       "1        10             0  Pass Incompletion   \n",
       "2        10             6    Pass Completion   \n",
       "3         4             0  Pass Incompletion   \n",
       "4         4            47    Pass Completion   \n",
       "5        10            10               Rush   \n",
       "\n",
       "                                           play_text       ppa  year  \\\n",
       "1         John Wolford pass incomplete to E.J. Scott -1.107768  2014   \n",
       "2  Tanner Price pass complete to Michael Campanar...  0.271467  2012   \n",
       "3  Tanner Price pass incomplete to Sherman Raglan... -0.654563  2012   \n",
       "4  Tanner Price pass complete to Brandon Terry fo...  4.083093  2012   \n",
       "5  Michael Campanaro rush for 10 yards to the Arm...       NaN  2012   \n",
       "\n",
       "              play_id    home_team  coef  adjusted_yardline  margin  \\\n",
       "1  400547832102978501  Wake Forest     0                 61      -7   \n",
       "2        322660154017  Wake Forest     0                 82      -6   \n",
       "3        322660154018  Wake Forest     0                 76      -6   \n",
       "4        322660154019  Wake Forest     0                 76      -6   \n",
       "5        322660154020  Wake Forest     0                 29      -6   \n",
       "\n",
       "   time_remaining  log_distance  goal_to_go  under_two  abs_diff  ScoreDiff_W  \\\n",
       "1             134      2.302585       False      False         7     0.915663   \n",
       "2            1595      2.302585       False      False         6     0.927711   \n",
       "3            1556      1.386294       False      False         6     0.927711   \n",
       "4            1545      1.386294       False      False         6     0.927711   \n",
       "5            1525      2.302585       False      False         6     0.927711   \n",
       "\n",
       "     game_id          DSH  drive_point drive_result  next_drive_point  \\\n",
       "1  400547832  40054783210            0          INT                 0   \n",
       "2  322660154  32266015402            7   RUSHING TD                 7   \n",
       "3  322660154  32266015402            7   RUSHING TD                 7   \n",
       "4  322660154  32266015402            7   RUSHING TD                 7   \n",
       "5  322660154  32266015402            7   RUSHING TD                 7   \n",
       "\n",
       "   Drive_Score_Dist_W   Total_W  Total_W_Scaled off_full_name off_abbr  \\\n",
       "1                 1.0  1.915663        0.936364   Wake Forest    WFrst   \n",
       "2                 1.0  1.927711        0.945455   Wake Forest    WFrst   \n",
       "3                 1.0  1.927711        0.945455   Wake Forest    WFrst   \n",
       "4                 1.0  1.927711        0.945455   Wake Forest    WFrst   \n",
       "5                 1.0  1.927711        0.945455   Wake Forest    WFrst   \n",
       "\n",
       "  def_full_name def_abbr  \n",
       "1          Army     Army  \n",
       "2          Army     Army  \n",
       "3          Army     Army  \n",
       "4          Army     Army  \n",
       "5          Army     Army  "
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 27,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "# there are some plays in prev seasons that have no drive_point set (and ended up being at the end of a game); this broke the produced dmatrices bc it drops NAs in the outcome var\n",
    "# regular_play[regular_play.drive_point.isna() == True]\n",
    "regular_play.loc[regular_play.drive_point.isna() == True, \"drive_point\"] = 0.0\n",
    "\n",
    "invalid_types = [\"Uncategorized\", \"placeholder\"]\n",
    "\n",
    "regular_play = regular_play[\n",
    "    (regular_play.play_text.notna())\n",
    "    & (regular_play.play_type.notna())\n",
    "]\n",
    "regular_play = regular_play[\n",
    "    (regular_play.play_type != 'Penalty')\n",
    "    & (regular_play.play_type != 'Interception') \n",
    "    & ~(regular_play.play_text.str.lower().str.contains('penalty')) \n",
    "    & ~(regular_play.play_type.str.lower().str.contains('uncategorized')) \n",
    "    & ~(regular_play.play_type.str.lower().str.contains('placeholder'))\n",
    "]\n",
    "regular_play.head()"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": null,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": []
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 28,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "turnover_plays = [\n",
    "    \"Blocked Field Goal\",\n",
    "    \"Blocked Field Goal Touchdown\",    \n",
    "    \"Blocked Punt\",\n",
    "    \"Blocked Punt Touchdown\",\n",
    "    \"Field Goal Missed\",\n",
    "    \"Missed Field Goal Return\",\n",
    "    \"Missed Field Goal Return Touchdown\",    \n",
    "    \"Fumble Recovery (Opponent)\",\n",
    "    \"Fumble Recovery (Opponent) Touchdown\",\n",
    "    \"Fumble Return Touchdown\",\n",
    "    \"Fumble Return Touchdown Touchdown\",\n",
    "    \"Defensive 2pt Conversion\",\n",
    "    \"Pass Interception\",\n",
    "    \"Interception\",\n",
    "    \"Interception Return Touchdown\",\n",
    "    \"Pass Interception Return\",\n",
    "    \"Pass Interception Return Touchdown\",\n",
    "    \"Punt\",\n",
    "    \"Punt Return Touchdown\",\n",
    "    \"Sack Touchdown\",\n",
    "    \"Uncategorized Touchdown\"\n",
    "]\n",
    "\n",
    "defense_score_vec = [\n",
    "    \"Blocked Punt Touchdown\",\n",
    "    \"Blocked Field Goal Touchdown\",\n",
    "    \"Missed Field Goal Return Touchdown\",\n",
    "    \"Punt Return Touchdown\",\n",
    "    \"Fumble Recovery (Opponent) Touchdown\",    \n",
    "    \"Fumble Return Touchdown\",\n",
    "    \"Fumble Return Touchdown Touchdown\",\n",
    "    \"Defensive 2pt Conversion\",\n",
    "    \"Safety\",\n",
    "    \"Sack Touchdown\",    \n",
    "    \"Interception Return Touchdown\",\n",
    "    \"Pass Interception Return Touchdown\",\n",
    "    \"Uncategorized Touchdown\"\n",
    "]\n",
    "\n",
    "normal_play = [\n",
    "    \"Rush\",\n",
    "    \"Pass\",\n",
    "    \"Pass Completion\",\n",
    "    \"Pass Reception\",\n",
    "    \"Pass Incompletion\",\n",
    "    \"Sack\",\n",
    "    \"Fumble Recovery (Own)\"\n",
    "]\n",
    "\n",
    "score = [\n",
    "    \"Passing Touchdown\", \n",
    "    \"Rushing Touchdown\", \n",
    "    \"Field Goal Good\",\n",
    "    \"Pass Reception Touchdown\",\n",
    "    \"Fumble Recovery (Own) Touchdown\",\n",
    "    \"Punt Touchdown\",\n",
    "    \"Rushing Touchdown Touchdown\"         \n",
    "]\n",
    "\n",
    "kickoff = [\n",
    "    \"Kickoff\",\n",
    "    \"Kickoff Return (Offense)\",\n",
    "    \"Kickoff Return Touchdown\",\n",
    "    \"Kickoff Touchdown\"\n",
    "]\n",
    "\n",
    "def determine_new_down(row):\n",
    "    if ((row.play_type in score) or (row.play_type in kickoff) or (row.play_type in turnover_plays) or (row.play_type in defense_score_vec)):\n",
    "        return 1\n",
    "    elif ((row.play_type in normal_play) & (row.yards_gained >= row.distance)):\n",
    "        return 1\n",
    "    elif ((row.play_type in normal_play) & (row.yards_gained < row.distance) & (row.down <= 3)):\n",
    "        return row.down + 1\n",
    "    elif ((row.play_type in normal_play) & (row.yards_gained < row.distance) & (row.down == 4)):\n",
    "        return 1\n",
    "    else:\n",
    "        return None\n",
    "    \n",
    "def determine_new_distance(row):\n",
    "    if ((row.play_type in normal_play) & (row.yards_gained >= row.distance) & (row.adjusted_yardline - row.yards_gained >= 10)):\n",
    "        return 10\n",
    "    elif ((row.play_type in normal_play) & (row.yards_gained >= row.distance) & (row.adjusted_yardline - row.yards_gained <= 10)):\n",
    "        return row.adjusted_yardline\n",
    "    elif ((row.play_type in normal_play) & (row.yards_gained < row.distance) & (row.down <= 3)):\n",
    "        return row.distance - row.yards_gained\n",
    "    elif ((row.play_type in normal_play) & (row.yards_gained < row.distance) & (row.down == 4) & (100 - (row.adjusted_yardline - row.yards_gained) > 10)):\n",
    "        return 10\n",
    "    elif ((row.play_type in normal_play) & (row.yards_gained < row.distance) & (row.down == 4) & (100 - (row.adjusted_yardline - row.yards_gained) <= 10)):\n",
    "        return 100 - row.adjusted_yardline\n",
    "    elif (row.play_type in turnover_plays):\n",
    "        return 10\n",
    "    elif (row.play_type in defense_score_vec):\n",
    "        return 0\n",
    "    elif (row.play_type in score):\n",
    "        return 0\n",
    "    elif (row.play_type in kickoff):\n",
    "        return 10\n",
    "    else:\n",
    "        return None\n",
    "\n",
    "def determine_new_yardline(row):\n",
    "    if (row.play_type in normal_play):\n",
    "        return row.adjusted_yardline - row.yards_gained\n",
    "    elif (row.play_type in score):\n",
    "        return 0\n",
    "    elif (row.play_type in defense_score_vec):\n",
    "        return 0\n",
    "    elif (row.play_type in kickoff):\n",
    "        return 75\n",
    "    elif (row.play_type in turnover_plays):\n",
    "        return 100 - row.adjusted_yardline + row.yards_gained\n",
    "    else:\n",
    "        return None\n",
    "\n",
    "def determine_turnover_indicator(row):\n",
    "    return 1 if ((row.play_type in turnover_plays) or (row.play_type in defense_score_vec) or ((row.play_type in normal_play) & row.yards_gained < row.distance & row.down == 4)) else 0\n",
    "\n",
    "import re\n",
    "def determine_punt_yardline(row):\n",
    "    try:\n",
    "        yds_punted = re.search('(?<=for)[^,]+ (\\d+)', row.play_text).group(1).astype(float)\n",
    "    except:\n",
    "        yds_punted = 0\n",
    "    return 100 - ((row.yard_line - yds_punted) if (row.yard_line > 50) else (row.yard_line + yds_punted))\n",
    "\n",
    "def prep_end_vars(dat):\n",
    "    print(\"starting basic setup of end vars\")\n",
    "    dat.play_id = dat.play_id.astype(int)\n",
    "    dat.id = dat.id.astype(int)\n",
    "    dat = dat.sort_values(by=[\"game_id\",\"play_id\"], ascending=True)\n",
    "    dat['half'] = dat.period.apply(lambda x: 1 if (x <= 2) else 2)\n",
    "    dat['new_yardline'] = 0\n",
    "    dat['new_down'] = 0\n",
    "    dat['new_distance'] = 0\n",
    "    dat['turnover_end'] = False\n",
    "    dat['next_offense'] = dat.offense.shift(-1)\n",
    "\n",
    "    dat.loc[((dat.play_type.isin(turnover_plays)) | (dat.next_offense != dat.offense)), \"turnover_end\"] = True\n",
    "    dat['turnover_indicator'] = dat.apply(lambda x: determine_turnover_indicator(x), axis = 1)\n",
    "    dat.loc[dat.play_type.str.contains(\"Kickoff\"), 'down'] = 5\n",
    "    dat['new_down'] = dat.apply(lambda row: determine_new_down(row), axis=1)\n",
    "    dat['new_distance'] = dat.apply(lambda row: determine_new_distance(row), axis=1)\n",
    "    dat['new_yardline'] = dat.apply(lambda row: determine_new_yardline(row), axis=1)\n",
    "    dat['new_time_remaining'] = dat.time_remaining.shift(-1)\n",
    "    dat.loc[dat.new_time_remaining.isna(), 'new_time_remaining'] = 0\n",
    "    dat['new_log_distance'] = dat.new_distance.apply(lambda x: np.log(0.5) if x == 0 else np.log(x)) #np.log(0.5) if (dat.new_distance == 0) else np.log(dat.new_distance)\n",
    "    dat['new_goal_to_go'] = (dat.new_yardline <= dat.new_distance)\n",
    "    dat['new_under_two'] = (dat.new_time_remaining <= 120)\n",
    "    dat[\"end_half_game\"] = False\n",
    "    print(\"done with basic setup\")\n",
    "    \n",
    "    print(\"Updating punt stuff\")\n",
    "#     is_punt = dat.play_type.str.contains(\"Punt\")\n",
    "#     is_punt_touchback = is_punt & (dat.play_text.str.contains(\"touchback\"))\n",
    "#     yds_gained_more_0 = (dat.yards_gained > 0) & is_punt\n",
    "    dat.loc[dat.play_type.str.contains(\"Punt\"), \"new_down\"] = 1\n",
    "    dat.loc[dat.play_type.str.contains(\"Punt\"), \"new_distance\"] = 10\n",
    "    dat.loc[dat.play_type.str.contains(\"Punt\"), \"new_log_distance\"] = np.log(10)\n",
    "    dat.loc[dat.play_type.str.contains(\"Punt\"), \"new_goal_to_go\"] = False\n",
    "    dat.loc[(dat.play_type.str.contains(\"Punt\") & (dat.play_text.str.contains(\"touchback\"))), \"new_yardline\"] = 80\n",
    "    dat.loc[(dat.play_type.str.contains(\"Punt\") & (dat.yards_gained > 0)), \"new_yardline\"] = 100 - (dat.adjusted_yardline - dat.yards_gained)\n",
    "    \n",
    "    dat.loc[(dat.yards_gained == 0) & (dat.play_type.str.contains(\"Punt\")) & ~((dat.play_type.str.contains(\"Punt\")) & (dat.play_text.str.contains(\"touchback\"))), \"new_yardline\"] = dat.apply(lambda x: determine_punt_yardline(x), axis=1)\n",
    "\n",
    "    print(\"Updating end of half stuff\")\n",
    "#     end_of_half_plays = (dat.new_time_remaining == 0)\n",
    "#     if (end_of_half_plays.any()):\n",
    "    dat.loc[(dat.new_time_remaining == 0), \"new_yardline\"] = 99\n",
    "    dat.loc[(dat.new_time_remaining == 0), \"new_down\"] = 4\n",
    "    dat.loc[(dat.new_time_remaining == 0), \"new_distance\"] = 99\n",
    "    dat.loc[(dat.new_time_remaining == 0), \"end_half_game\"] = 1\n",
    "    dat.loc[(dat.new_time_remaining == 0), \"new_log_distance\"] = np.log(99)\n",
    "#         dat[end_of_half_plays, \"new_goal_to_go\"] = False\n",
    "    dat.loc[(dat.new_time_remaining == 0), \"new_under_two\"] = (dat.new_time_remaining <= 120)\n",
    "    dat.loc[(dat.new_time_remaining == 0), \"end_half_game\"] = True\n",
    "    \n",
    "    print(\"Fixing misc stuff with bad values\")\n",
    "#     na_yd_line = dat[(dat.new_yardline.isna()) or (dat.new_yardline >= 100)]\n",
    "    dat.loc[(dat.new_yardline.isna()) | (dat.new_yardline >= 100), \"new_yardline\"] = dat.new_yardline.shift(-1)\n",
    "    \n",
    "#     neg_distance = dat[(dat.new_distance < 0)]\n",
    "    dat.loc[(dat.new_distance < 0), \"new_distance\"] = dat.new_distance.shift(-1)\n",
    "    dat.loc[(dat.new_distance < 0), \"new_log_distance\"] = dat.new_distance.apply(lambda x: np.log(0.5) if x == 0 else np.log(x))\n",
    "    \n",
    "#     missing_yd_line = (dat.new_yardline == 0) or (dat.new_yardline.isna())\n",
    "    dat.loc[(dat.new_yardline == 0) | (dat.new_yardline.isna()), \"new_yardline\"] = 99\n",
    "    dat.loc[(dat.new_yardline == 0) | (dat.new_yardline.isna()), \"new_log_distance\"] = np.log(99)\n",
    "    \n",
    "    print(\"Done!\")\n",
    "    return dat\n",
    "#     return dat[[\"play_id\",\"game_id\", \"drive_id\", \"new_time_remaining\",\"new_down\",\"new_distance\",\"new_yardline\",\"new_log_distance\",\"new_goal_to_go\",\"new_under_two\",\"end_half_game\",\"turnover\",\"Total_W_Scaled\"]]    "
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 29,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "starting basic setup of end vars\n",
      "done with basic setup\n",
      "Updating punt stuff\n",
      "Updating end of half stuff\n",
      "Fixing misc stuff with bad values\n",
      "Done!\n"
     ]
    },
    {
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       "      <td>40118379316</td>\n",
       "      <td>4</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>57</td>\n",
       "      <td>73</td>\n",
       "      <td>2</td>\n",
       "      <td>3</td>\n",
       "      <td>27</td>\n",
       "      <td>Passing Touchdown</td>\n",
       "      <td>Trae Hall pass complete to Aaron Molina for 27...</td>\n",
       "      <td>2.552144</td>\n",
       "      <td>2019</td>\n",
       "      <td>401183793104984201</td>\n",
       "      <td>New Mexico</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>27</td>\n",
       "      <td>-22</td>\n",
       "      <td>117</td>\n",
       "      <td>1.098612</td>\n",
       "      <td>False</td>\n",
       "      <td>True</td>\n",
       "      <td>22</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.734940</td>\n",
       "      <td>401183793</td>\n",
       "      <td>40118379316</td>\n",
       "      <td>7</td>\n",
       "      <td>TD</td>\n",
       "      <td>7</td>\n",
       "      <td>1.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>1.734940</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.800000</td>\n",
       "      <td>New Mexico</td>\n",
       "      <td>NMex</td>\n",
       "      <td>Air Force</td>\n",
       "      <td>AFA</td>\n",
       "      <td>2</td>\n",
       "      <td>99.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>True</td>\n",
       "      <td>Air Force</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>117.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>-0.693147</td>\n",
       "      <td>True</td>\n",
       "      <td>True</td>\n",
       "      <td>False</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>182964</th>\n",
       "      <td>401183793104984204</td>\n",
       "      <td>Air Force</td>\n",
       "      <td>Mountain West</td>\n",
       "      <td>New Mexico</td>\n",
       "      <td>Mountain West</td>\n",
       "      <td>New Mexico</td>\n",
       "      <td>Air Force</td>\n",
       "      <td>44</td>\n",
       "      <td>22</td>\n",
       "      <td>40118379317</td>\n",
       "      <td>4</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>57</td>\n",
       "      <td>75</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>10</td>\n",
       "      <td>6</td>\n",
       "      <td>Rush</td>\n",
       "      <td>Mike Schmidt run for 6 yds to the AFA 31</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.333375</td>\n",
       "      <td>2019</td>\n",
       "      <td>401183793104984204</td>\n",
       "      <td>New Mexico</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>75</td>\n",
       "      <td>22</td>\n",
       "      <td>117</td>\n",
       "      <td>2.302585</td>\n",
       "      <td>False</td>\n",
       "      <td>True</td>\n",
       "      <td>22</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.734940</td>\n",
       "      <td>401183793</td>\n",
       "      <td>40118379317</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>END OF GAME</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>1.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>1.734940</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.800000</td>\n",
       "      <td>Air Force</td>\n",
       "      <td>AFA</td>\n",
       "      <td>New Mexico</td>\n",
       "      <td>NMex</td>\n",
       "      <td>2</td>\n",
       "      <td>69.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>2</td>\n",
       "      <td>4</td>\n",
       "      <td>False</td>\n",
       "      <td>Air Force</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>117.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>1.386294</td>\n",
       "      <td>False</td>\n",
       "      <td>True</td>\n",
       "      <td>False</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>182965</th>\n",
       "      <td>401183793104984205</td>\n",
       "      <td>Air Force</td>\n",
       "      <td>Mountain West</td>\n",
       "      <td>New Mexico</td>\n",
       "      <td>Mountain West</td>\n",
       "      <td>New Mexico</td>\n",
       "      <td>Air Force</td>\n",
       "      <td>44</td>\n",
       "      <td>22</td>\n",
       "      <td>40118379317</td>\n",
       "      <td>4</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>57</td>\n",
       "      <td>69</td>\n",
       "      <td>2</td>\n",
       "      <td>4</td>\n",
       "      <td>-2</td>\n",
       "      <td>Rush</td>\n",
       "      <td>TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the AFA 29</td>\n",
       "      <td>-1.098568</td>\n",
       "      <td>2019</td>\n",
       "      <td>401183793104984205</td>\n",
       "      <td>New Mexico</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>69</td>\n",
       "      <td>22</td>\n",
       "      <td>117</td>\n",
       "      <td>1.386294</td>\n",
       "      <td>False</td>\n",
       "      <td>True</td>\n",
       "      <td>22</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.734940</td>\n",
       "      <td>401183793</td>\n",
       "      <td>40118379317</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>END OF GAME</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>1.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>1.734940</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.800000</td>\n",
       "      <td>Air Force</td>\n",
       "      <td>AFA</td>\n",
       "      <td>New Mexico</td>\n",
       "      <td>NMex</td>\n",
       "      <td>2</td>\n",
       "      <td>71.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>3</td>\n",
       "      <td>6</td>\n",
       "      <td>False</td>\n",
       "      <td>Air Force</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>117.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>1.791759</td>\n",
       "      <td>False</td>\n",
       "      <td>True</td>\n",
       "      <td>False</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>182966</th>\n",
       "      <td>401183793104984206</td>\n",
       "      <td>Air Force</td>\n",
       "      <td>Mountain West</td>\n",
       "      <td>New Mexico</td>\n",
       "      <td>Mountain West</td>\n",
       "      <td>New Mexico</td>\n",
       "      <td>Air Force</td>\n",
       "      <td>44</td>\n",
       "      <td>22</td>\n",
       "      <td>40118379317</td>\n",
       "      <td>4</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>57</td>\n",
       "      <td>71</td>\n",
       "      <td>3</td>\n",
       "      <td>6</td>\n",
       "      <td>-2</td>\n",
       "      <td>Rush</td>\n",
       "      <td>TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the AFA 27</td>\n",
       "      <td>-0.390428</td>\n",
       "      <td>2019</td>\n",
       "      <td>401183793104984206</td>\n",
       "      <td>New Mexico</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>71</td>\n",
       "      <td>22</td>\n",
       "      <td>117</td>\n",
       "      <td>1.791759</td>\n",
       "      <td>False</td>\n",
       "      <td>True</td>\n",
       "      <td>22</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.734940</td>\n",
       "      <td>401183793</td>\n",
       "      <td>40118379317</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>END OF GAME</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>1.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>1.734940</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.800000</td>\n",
       "      <td>Air Force</td>\n",
       "      <td>AFA</td>\n",
       "      <td>New Mexico</td>\n",
       "      <td>NMex</td>\n",
       "      <td>2</td>\n",
       "      <td>99.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>4</td>\n",
       "      <td>99</td>\n",
       "      <td>True</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>4.595120</td>\n",
       "      <td>False</td>\n",
       "      <td>True</td>\n",
       "      <td>True</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "  </tbody>\n",
       "</table>\n",
       "<p>859583 rows × 56 columns</p>\n",
       "</div>"
      ],
      "text/plain": [
       "                        id      offense offense_conference      defense  \\\n",
       "657094        322430041002        UMass       Mid-American  Connecticut   \n",
       "657095        322430041003        UMass       Mid-American  Connecticut   \n",
       "657096        322430041005        UMass       Mid-American  Connecticut   \n",
       "657097        322430041006        UMass       Mid-American  Connecticut   \n",
       "570576        322430041008  Connecticut           Big East        UMass   \n",
       "...                    ...          ...                ...          ...   \n",
       "540574  401183793104925609   New Mexico      Mountain West    Air Force   \n",
       "540575  401183793104984201   New Mexico      Mountain West    Air Force   \n",
       "182964  401183793104984204    Air Force      Mountain West   New Mexico   \n",
       "182965  401183793104984205    Air Force      Mountain West   New Mexico   \n",
       "182966  401183793104984206    Air Force      Mountain West   New Mexico   \n",
       "\n",
       "       defense_conference         home       away  offense_score  \\\n",
       "657094           Big East  Connecticut      UMass              0   \n",
       "657095           Big East  Connecticut      UMass              0   \n",
       "657096           Big East  Connecticut      UMass              0   \n",
       "657097           Big East  Connecticut      UMass              0   \n",
       "570576       Mid-American  Connecticut      UMass              0   \n",
       "...                   ...          ...        ...            ...   \n",
       "540574      Mountain West   New Mexico  Air Force             16   \n",
       "540575      Mountain West   New Mexico  Air Force             22   \n",
       "182964      Mountain West   New Mexico  Air Force             44   \n",
       "182965      Mountain West   New Mexico  Air Force             44   \n",
       "182966      Mountain West   New Mexico  Air Force             44   \n",
       "\n",
       "        defense_score     drive_id  period  clock.minutes  clock.seconds  \\\n",
       "657094              0  32243004101       1             29             45   \n",
       "657095              0  32243004101       1             29             20   \n",
       "657096              0  32243004101       1             29             10   \n",
       "657097              0  32243004101       1             28             28   \n",
       "570576              0  32243004102       1             28             20   \n",
       "...               ...          ...     ...            ...            ...   \n",
       "540574             44  40118379316       4              7             43   \n",
       "540575             44  40118379316       4              1             57   \n",
       "182964             22  40118379317       4              1             57   \n",
       "182965             22  40118379317       4              1             57   \n",
       "182966             22  40118379317       4              1             57   \n",
       "\n",
       "        yard_line  down  distance  yards_gained          play_type  \\\n",
       "657094         80     1        10             1               Rush   \n",
       "657095         79     2         9             0  Pass Incompletion   \n",
       "657096         79     3         9             5    Pass Completion   \n",
       "657097         74     4         4            -2               Punt   \n",
       "570576         25     1        10             5               Rush   \n",
       "...           ...   ...       ...           ...                ...   \n",
       "540574         66     1        10             7               Rush   \n",
       "540575         73     2         3            27  Passing Touchdown   \n",
       "182964         75     1        10             6               Rush   \n",
       "182965         69     2         4            -2               Rush   \n",
       "182966         71     3         6            -2               Rush   \n",
       "\n",
       "                                                play_text       ppa  year  \\\n",
       "657094       Chris Burns rush for 1 yard to the UMass 21. -0.468828  2012   \n",
       "657095                       Mike Wegzyn pass incomplete. -0.310093  2012   \n",
       "657096  Mike Wegzyn pass complete to Marken Michel for...  0.019784  2012   \n",
       "657097  Jeff Strait punt for 47 yards, returned by Nic...       NaN  2012   \n",
       "570576     Lyle McCombs rush for 5 yards to the UConn 30.  0.094545  2012   \n",
       "...                                                   ...       ...   ...   \n",
       "540574         Chad Alexander run for 7 yds to the AFA 27  0.384582  2019   \n",
       "540575  Trae Hall pass complete to Aaron Molina for 27...  2.552144  2019   \n",
       "182964           Mike Schmidt run for 6 yds to the AFA 31  0.333375  2019   \n",
       "182965       TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the AFA 29 -1.098568  2019   \n",
       "182966       TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the AFA 27 -0.390428  2019   \n",
       "\n",
       "                   play_id    home_team  coef  adjusted_yardline  margin  \\\n",
       "657094        322430041002  Connecticut     1                 80       0   \n",
       "657095        322430041003  Connecticut     1                 79       0   \n",
       "657096        322430041005  Connecticut     1                 79       0   \n",
       "657097        322430041006  Connecticut     1                 74       0   \n",
       "570576        322430041008  Connecticut     0                 75       0   \n",
       "...                    ...          ...   ...                ...     ...   \n",
       "540574  401183793104925609   New Mexico     0                 34     -28   \n",
       "540575  401183793104984201   New Mexico     0                 27     -22   \n",
       "182964  401183793104984204   New Mexico     1                 75      22   \n",
       "182965  401183793104984205   New Mexico     1                 69      22   \n",
       "182966  401183793104984206   New Mexico     1                 71      22   \n",
       "\n",
       "        time_remaining  log_distance  goal_to_go  under_two  abs_diff  \\\n",
       "657094            1785      2.302585       False      False         0   \n",
       "657095            1760      2.197225       False      False         0   \n",
       "657096            1750      2.197225       False      False         0   \n",
       "657097            1708      1.386294       False      False         0   \n",
       "570576            1700      2.302585       False      False         0   \n",
       "...                ...           ...         ...        ...       ...   \n",
       "540574             463      2.302585       False      False        28   \n",
       "540575             117      1.098612       False       True        22   \n",
       "182964             117      2.302585       False       True        22   \n",
       "182965             117      1.386294       False       True        22   \n",
       "182966             117      1.791759       False       True        22   \n",
       "\n",
       "        ScoreDiff_W    game_id          DSH  drive_point drive_result  \\\n",
       "657094     1.000000  322430041  32243004102            0         PUNT   \n",
       "657095     1.000000  322430041  32243004102            0         PUNT   \n",
       "657096     1.000000  322430041  32243004102            0         PUNT   \n",
       "657097     1.000000  322430041  32243004102            0         PUNT   \n",
       "570576     1.000000  322430041  32243004102            7   RUSHING TD   \n",
       "...             ...        ...          ...          ...          ...   \n",
       "540574     0.662651  401183793  40118379316            7           TD   \n",
       "540575     0.734940  401183793  40118379316            7           TD   \n",
       "182964     0.734940  401183793  40118379317            0  END OF GAME   \n",
       "182965     0.734940  401183793  40118379317            0  END OF GAME   \n",
       "182966     0.734940  401183793  40118379317            0  END OF GAME   \n",
       "\n",
       "        next_drive_point  Drive_Score_Dist_W   Total_W  Total_W_Scaled  \\\n",
       "657094                -7                 1.0  2.000000        1.000000   \n",
       "657095                -7                 1.0  2.000000        1.000000   \n",
       "657096                -7                 1.0  2.000000        1.000000   \n",
       "657097                -7                 1.0  2.000000        1.000000   \n",
       "570576                 7                 1.0  2.000000        1.000000   \n",
       "...                  ...                 ...       ...             ...   \n",
       "540574                 7                 1.0  1.662651        0.745455   \n",
       "540575                 7                 1.0  1.734940        0.800000   \n",
       "182964                 0                 1.0  1.734940        0.800000   \n",
       "182965                 0                 1.0  1.734940        0.800000   \n",
       "182966                 0                 1.0  1.734940        0.800000   \n",
       "\n",
       "       off_full_name off_abbr def_full_name def_abbr  half  new_yardline  \\\n",
       "657094         UMass    UMass   Connecticut    UConn     1          79.0   \n",
       "657095         UMass    UMass   Connecticut    UConn     1          79.0   \n",
       "657096         UMass    UMass   Connecticut    UConn     1          74.0   \n",
       "657097         UMass    UMass   Connecticut    UConn     1          24.0   \n",
       "570576   Connecticut    UConn         UMass    UMass     1          70.0   \n",
       "...              ...      ...           ...      ...   ...           ...   \n",
       "540574    New Mexico     NMex     Air Force      AFA     2          27.0   \n",
       "540575    New Mexico     NMex     Air Force      AFA     2          99.0   \n",
       "182964     Air Force      AFA    New Mexico     NMex     2          69.0   \n",
       "182965     Air Force      AFA    New Mexico     NMex     2          71.0   \n",
       "182966     Air Force      AFA    New Mexico     NMex     2          99.0   \n",
       "\n",
       "        new_down  new_distance  turnover_end next_offense  turnover_indicator  \\\n",
       "657094         2             9         False        UMass                   0   \n",
       "657095         3             9         False        UMass                   0   \n",
       "657096         4             4         False        UMass                   0   \n",
       "657097         1            10          True  Connecticut                   1   \n",
       "570576         2             5         False  Connecticut                   0   \n",
       "...          ...           ...           ...          ...                 ...   \n",
       "540574         2             3         False   New Mexico                   0   \n",
       "540575         1             0          True    Air Force                   0   \n",
       "182964         2             4         False    Air Force                   0   \n",
       "182965         3             6         False    Air Force                   0   \n",
       "182966         4            99          True          NaN                   0   \n",
       "\n",
       "        new_time_remaining  new_log_distance  new_goal_to_go  new_under_two  \\\n",
       "657094              1760.0          2.197225           False          False   \n",
       "657095              1750.0          2.197225           False          False   \n",
       "657096              1708.0          1.386294           False          False   \n",
       "657097              1700.0          2.302585           False          False   \n",
       "570576              1666.0          1.609438           False          False   \n",
       "...                    ...               ...             ...            ...   \n",
       "540574               117.0          1.098612           False           True   \n",
       "540575               117.0         -0.693147            True           True   \n",
       "182964               117.0          1.386294           False           True   \n",
       "182965               117.0          1.791759           False           True   \n",
       "182966                 0.0          4.595120           False           True   \n",
       "\n",
       "       end_half_game  \n",
       "657094         False  \n",
       "657095         False  \n",
       "657096         False  \n",
       "657097         False  \n",
       "570576         False  \n",
       "...              ...  \n",
       "540574         False  \n",
       "540575         False  \n",
       "182964         False  \n",
       "182965         False  \n",
       "182966          True  \n",
       "\n",
       "[859583 rows x 56 columns]"
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 29,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "regular_play = prep_end_vars(regular_play)\n",
    "regular_play #= pd.merge(regular_play, base_end, left_on=\"play_id\", right_on=\"play_id\")"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 30,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
      "text/plain": [
       "859583"
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 30,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "len(regular_play.Total_W_Scaled)"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 31,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "# regular_play[(regular_play.yards_gained == 0) & (regular_play.play_type.str.contains(\"Punt\")) & ~((regular_play.play_type.str.contains(\"Punt\")) & (regular_play.play_text.str.contains(\"touchback\")))].new_yardline = 100 if (punt_yd_line > 50) else \n"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 32,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "y_test, X_test = dmatrices(reg_equation, regular_play, return_type='dataframe')\n",
    "X_test.columns = ['Intercept', 'down2', 'down3', 'down4',\n",
    "       'goal_to_go', 'under_two', 'time_remaining',\n",
    "       'adjusted_yardline', 'adjusted_yardline_down_2',\n",
    "       'adjusted_yardline_down_3', 'adjusted_yardline_down_4',\n",
    "       'log_distance', 'log_distance_down_2',\n",
    "       'log_distance_down_3', 'log_distance_down_4',\n",
    "       'goal_to_go_log_distance']\n",
    "\n",
    "dtest = xgb.DMatrix(X_test, weight=regular_play.Total_W_Scaled, label=y_test)\n",
    "EP_predict_start = xgb_model.predict(dtest)\n",
    "EP_predict_start\n",
    "\n",
    "EP_start = EP_predict_start[:,0] * class_to_score_mapping[0] + EP_predict_start[:,1] * class_to_score_mapping[1] + EP_predict_start[:,2] * class_to_score_mapping[2] + EP_predict_start[:,3] * class_to_score_mapping[3] + EP_predict_start[:,4] * class_to_score_mapping[4] + EP_predict_start[:,5] * class_to_score_mapping[5] + EP_predict_start[:,6] * class_to_score_mapping[6]\n",
    "# print(len(EP))\n",
    "regular_play['EP_start'] = EP_start\n",
    "\n",
    "for c in range(0, 7):\n",
    "    regular_play[class_to_name_mapping[c]] = EP_predict_start[:,c]\n",
    "    "
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 33,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
      "text/plain": [
       "Series([], Name: play_type, dtype: int64)"
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 33,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "out_df = pd.DataFrame({'play_type':regular_play['play_type'],'play_text':regular_play['play_text'],'yards_gained':regular_play['yards_gained'], 'down':regular_play['new_down'],'distance':regular_play['new_distance'],'adjusted_yardline':regular_play['new_yardline'],'margin':regular_play['margin'], 'period':regular_play['period'],'drive_point':regular_play['drive_point'],'next_drive_point':regular_play['next_drive_point'], 'log_distance':regular_play['new_log_distance'],'goal_to_go':regular_play['new_goal_to_go'],'time_remaining':regular_play['new_time_remaining'], 'under_two':regular_play['new_under_two'], \"Total_W_Scaled\" : regular_play.Total_W_Scaled})\n",
    "out_df[out_df.down.isna()].play_type.value_counts()"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 34,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
      "text/plain": [
       "859583"
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 34,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "y_end, X_end = dmatrices(reg_equation, out_df, return_type='dataframe')\n",
    "\n",
    "X_end.columns = ['Intercept', 'down2', 'down3', 'down4',\n",
    "       'goal_to_go', 'under_two', 'time_remaining',\n",
    "       'adjusted_yardline', 'adjusted_yardline_down_2',\n",
    "       'adjusted_yardline_down_3', 'adjusted_yardline_down_4',\n",
    "       'log_distance', 'log_distance_down_2',\n",
    "       'log_distance_down_3', 'log_distance_down_4',\n",
    "       'goal_to_go_log_distance']\n",
    "len(X_end)"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 35,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "dtest_end = xgb.DMatrix(X_end, weight=out_df.Total_W_Scaled, label=y_end)\n",
    "EP_predict_end = xgb_model.predict(dtest_end)"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 36,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "EP_end = EP_predict_end[:,0] * class_to_score_mapping[0] + EP_predict_end[:,1] * class_to_score_mapping[1] + EP_predict_end[:,2] * class_to_score_mapping[2] + EP_predict_end[:,3] * class_to_score_mapping[3] + EP_predict_end[:,4] * class_to_score_mapping[4] + EP_predict_end[:,5] * class_to_score_mapping[5] + EP_predict_end[:,6] * class_to_score_mapping[6]\n",
    "\n",
    "regular_play['EP_end'] = EP_end"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 37,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "# turnover_ps = (regular_play.turnover_end == True) and ~(regular_play.play_type == 'Kickoff')\n",
    "regular_play.loc[(regular_play.turnover_end == True), \"EP_end\"] = -1 * regular_play.EP_end\n",
    "\n",
    "regular_play.loc[(regular_play.end_half_game == True), \"EP_end\"] = 0"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 38,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "regular_play.loc[(regular_play.play_type.isin(off_TD)),'EP_end'] = 7\n",
    "regular_play.loc[(regular_play.play_type.isin(def_TD)),'EP_end'] = -7\n",
    "regular_play.loc[regular_play.play_type == 'Safety','EP_end'] = -2\n",
    "regular_play.loc[(regular_play.play_type.isin(PAT_miss_type)),'EP_end'] = 6\n",
    "regular_play.loc[regular_play.play_type == 'Field Goal Good','EP_end'] = 3"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 39,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "regular_play['EPA'] = regular_play['EP_end'] - regular_play['EP_start']"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 40,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "pass_play_type = [\"Interception Return Touchdown\",\"Pass Interception\",\"Pass Incompletion\",\"Pass Interception Return\",\"Pass Reception\",\"Pass Completion\",\"Pass\",\"Passing Touchdown\",\"Sack\"]\n",
    "rush_play_type = ['Fumble Recovery (Opponent)','Fumble Recovery (Own)','Fumble Return Touchdown','Rush','Rushing Touchdown']"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 41,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
      "text/plain": [
       "0.09776391834020615"
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 41,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "# cfbscrapR value for this filter: 0.1202821\n",
    "regular_play[regular_play.play_type.isin(pass_play_type)]['EPA'].mean()"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 42,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
      "text/plain": [
       "-0.13126854598522186"
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 42,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "# cfbscrapR value for this filter: -0.04072027\n",
    "regular_play[regular_play.play_type.isin(rush_play_type)]['EPA'].mean()"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 43,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
      "text/plain": [
       "play_type\n",
       "Blocked Field Goal                   -0.369392\n",
       "Blocked Field Goal Touchdown          0.927339\n",
       "Blocked Punt                         -0.651105\n",
       "Blocked Punt Touchdown               -5.162414\n",
       "Defensive 2pt Conversion             -4.715701\n",
       "Field Goal Good                       2.917672\n",
       "Field Goal Missed                    -0.233752\n",
       "Fumble Recovery (Opponent)           -2.966131\n",
       "Fumble Recovery (Own)                -0.935137\n",
       "Fumble Return Touchdown              -7.145353\n",
       "Interception Return Touchdown        -6.973184\n",
       "Missed Field Goal Return              0.512435\n",
       "Missed Field Goal Return Touchdown   -6.531981\n",
       "Pass                                 -3.158928\n",
       "Pass Completion                       0.540609\n",
       "Pass Incompletion                    -0.922729\n",
       "Pass Interception                    -2.158391\n",
       "Pass Interception Return             -2.210950\n",
       "Pass Reception                        0.880414\n",
       "Passing Touchdown                     4.127422\n",
       "Punt                                 -0.692173\n",
       "Punt Return Touchdown                -5.999754\n",
       "Rush                                 -0.200240\n",
       "Rushing Touchdown                     2.681510\n",
       "Sack                                 -1.190471\n",
       "Safety                               -0.566602\n",
       "Name: EPA, dtype: float32"
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 43,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "regular_play.groupby('play_type')['EPA'].mean()"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 44,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
      "text/plain": [
       "0.16998962783460378"
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 44,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "regular_play[regular_play.play_type.isin(pass_play_type)]['ppa'].mean()"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 45,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
      "text/plain": [
       "0.06823612722365852"
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 45,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "regular_play[regular_play.play_type.isin(rush_play_type)]['ppa'].mean()"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 46,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
      "text/plain": [
       "play_type\n",
       "Fumble Recovery (Opponent)   -2.966131\n",
       "Pass Interception Return     -2.210950\n",
       "Sack                         -1.190471\n",
       "Name: EPA, dtype: float32"
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 46,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "# turnovers\n",
    "regular_play[regular_play.play_type.isin([\"Fumble Recovery (Opponent)\",\"Pass Interception Return\",\"Sack\"])].groupby('play_type')['EPA'].mean()"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 47,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
      "text/plain": [
       "play_type\n",
       "Pass                       -3.158928\n",
       "Pass Completion             0.540609\n",
       "Pass Incompletion          -0.922729\n",
       "Pass Interception          -2.158391\n",
       "Pass Interception Return   -2.210950\n",
       "Pass Reception              0.880414\n",
       "Passing Touchdown           4.127422\n",
       "Sack                       -1.190471\n",
       "Name: EPA, dtype: float32"
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 47,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "# passes\n",
    "regular_play[(regular_play.play_type.isin(pass_play_type)) & (~regular_play.play_type.isin([\"Fumble Recovery (Own)\", \"Interception Return Touchdown\"]))].groupby('play_type')['EPA'].mean()\n"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 48,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
      "text/plain": [
       "play_type\n",
       "Fumble Recovery (Opponent)   -2.966131\n",
       "Rush                         -0.200240\n",
       "Rushing Touchdown             2.681510\n",
       "Name: EPA, dtype: float32"
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 48,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "# Rushes\n",
    "regular_play[(regular_play.play_type.isin(rush_play_type)) & (~regular_play.play_type.isin([\"Fumble Recovery (Own)\", \"Fumble Return Touchdown\"]))].groupby('play_type')['EPA'].mean()\n"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 49,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "regular_play.to_csv(\"./results/base-epa.csv\", encoding=\"utf-8\",index=False)"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 50,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
      "text/html": [
       "<div>\n",
       "<style scoped>\n",
       "    .dataframe tbody tr th:only-of-type {\n",
       "        vertical-align: middle;\n",
       "    }\n",
       "\n",
       "    .dataframe tbody tr th {\n",
       "        vertical-align: top;\n",
       "    }\n",
       "\n",
       "    .dataframe thead th {\n",
       "        text-align: right;\n",
       "    }\n",
       "</style>\n",
       "<table border=\"1\" class=\"dataframe\">\n",
       "  <thead>\n",
       "    <tr style=\"text-align: right;\">\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th>id</th>\n",
       "      <th>offense</th>\n",
       "      <th>offense_conference</th>\n",
       "      <th>defense</th>\n",
       "      <th>defense_conference</th>\n",
       "      <th>home</th>\n",
       "      <th>away</th>\n",
       "      <th>offense_score</th>\n",
       "      <th>defense_score</th>\n",
       "      <th>drive_id</th>\n",
       "      <th>period</th>\n",
       "      <th>clock.minutes</th>\n",
       "      <th>clock.seconds</th>\n",
       "      <th>yard_line</th>\n",
       "      <th>down</th>\n",
       "      <th>distance</th>\n",
       "      <th>yards_gained</th>\n",
       "      <th>play_type</th>\n",
       "      <th>play_text</th>\n",
       "      <th>ppa</th>\n",
       "      <th>year</th>\n",
       "      <th>play_id</th>\n",
       "      <th>home_team</th>\n",
       "      <th>coef</th>\n",
       "      <th>adjusted_yardline</th>\n",
       "      <th>margin</th>\n",
       "      <th>time_remaining</th>\n",
       "      <th>log_distance</th>\n",
       "      <th>goal_to_go</th>\n",
       "      <th>under_two</th>\n",
       "      <th>abs_diff</th>\n",
       "      <th>ScoreDiff_W</th>\n",
       "      <th>game_id</th>\n",
       "      <th>DSH</th>\n",
       "      <th>drive_point</th>\n",
       "      <th>drive_result</th>\n",
       "      <th>next_drive_point</th>\n",
       "      <th>Drive_Score_Dist_W</th>\n",
       "      <th>Total_W</th>\n",
       "      <th>Total_W_Scaled</th>\n",
       "      <th>off_full_name</th>\n",
       "      <th>off_abbr</th>\n",
       "      <th>def_full_name</th>\n",
       "      <th>def_abbr</th>\n",
       "      <th>half</th>\n",
       "      <th>new_yardline</th>\n",
       "      <th>new_down</th>\n",
       "      <th>new_distance</th>\n",
       "      <th>turnover_end</th>\n",
       "      <th>next_offense</th>\n",
       "      <th>turnover_indicator</th>\n",
       "      <th>new_time_remaining</th>\n",
       "      <th>new_log_distance</th>\n",
       "      <th>new_goal_to_go</th>\n",
       "      <th>new_under_two</th>\n",
       "      <th>end_half_game</th>\n",
       "      <th>EP_start</th>\n",
       "      <th>TD</th>\n",
       "      <th>Opp_TD</th>\n",
       "      <th>FG</th>\n",
       "      <th>Opp_FG</th>\n",
       "      <th>No_Score</th>\n",
       "      <th>Safety</th>\n",
       "      <th>Opp_Safety</th>\n",
       "      <th>EP_end</th>\n",
       "      <th>EPA</th>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "  </thead>\n",
       "  <tbody>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>124604</th>\n",
       "      <td>400547917103965201</td>\n",
       "      <td>Bowling Green</td>\n",
       "      <td>Mid-American</td>\n",
       "      <td>Indiana</td>\n",
       "      <td>Big Ten</td>\n",
       "      <td>Bowling Green</td>\n",
       "      <td>Indiana</td>\n",
       "      <td>26</td>\n",
       "      <td>21</td>\n",
       "      <td>40054791721</td>\n",
       "      <td>3</td>\n",
       "      <td>18</td>\n",
       "      <td>47</td>\n",
       "      <td>95</td>\n",
       "      <td>2</td>\n",
       "      <td>5</td>\n",
       "      <td>5</td>\n",
       "      <td>Rushing Touchdown</td>\n",
       "      <td>Travis Greene run for 5 yds for a TD, (Tyler T...</td>\n",
       "      <td>2.438578</td>\n",
       "      <td>2014</td>\n",
       "      <td>400547917103965201</td>\n",
       "      <td>Bowling Green</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>5</td>\n",
       "      <td>5</td>\n",
       "      <td>1127</td>\n",
       "      <td>1.609438</td>\n",
       "      <td>True</td>\n",
       "      <td>False</td>\n",
       "      <td>5</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.939759</td>\n",
       "      <td>400547917</td>\n",
       "      <td>40054791721</td>\n",
       "      <td>7</td>\n",
       "      <td>TD</td>\n",
       "      <td>7</td>\n",
       "      <td>1.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>1.939759</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.954545</td>\n",
       "      <td>Bowling Green</td>\n",
       "      <td>BwGrn</td>\n",
       "      <td>Indiana</td>\n",
       "      <td>Ind</td>\n",
       "      <td>2</td>\n",
       "      <td>99.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>True</td>\n",
       "      <td>Indiana</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>1113.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>-0.693147</td>\n",
       "      <td>True</td>\n",
       "      <td>False</td>\n",
       "      <td>False</td>\n",
       "      <td>4.813544</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.613056</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.047959</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.305986</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.020547</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.005462</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.003883</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.003108</td>\n",
       "      <td>7.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>2.186456</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "  </tbody>\n",
       "</table>\n",
       "</div>"
      ],
      "text/plain": [
       "                        id        offense offense_conference  defense  \\\n",
       "124604  400547917103965201  Bowling Green       Mid-American  Indiana   \n",
       "\n",
       "       defense_conference           home     away  offense_score  \\\n",
       "124604            Big Ten  Bowling Green  Indiana             26   \n",
       "\n",
       "        defense_score     drive_id  period  clock.minutes  clock.seconds  \\\n",
       "124604             21  40054791721       3             18             47   \n",
       "\n",
       "        yard_line  down  distance  yards_gained          play_type  \\\n",
       "124604         95     2         5             5  Rushing Touchdown   \n",
       "\n",
       "                                                play_text       ppa  year  \\\n",
       "124604  Travis Greene run for 5 yds for a TD, (Tyler T...  2.438578  2014   \n",
       "\n",
       "                   play_id      home_team  coef  adjusted_yardline  margin  \\\n",
       "124604  400547917103965201  Bowling Green     0                  5       5   \n",
       "\n",
       "        time_remaining  log_distance  goal_to_go  under_two  abs_diff  \\\n",
       "124604            1127      1.609438        True      False         5   \n",
       "\n",
       "        ScoreDiff_W    game_id          DSH  drive_point drive_result  \\\n",
       "124604     0.939759  400547917  40054791721            7           TD   \n",
       "\n",
       "        next_drive_point  Drive_Score_Dist_W   Total_W  Total_W_Scaled  \\\n",
       "124604                 7                 1.0  1.939759        0.954545   \n",
       "\n",
       "        off_full_name off_abbr def_full_name def_abbr  half  new_yardline  \\\n",
       "124604  Bowling Green    BwGrn       Indiana      Ind     2          99.0   \n",
       "\n",
       "        new_down  new_distance  turnover_end next_offense  turnover_indicator  \\\n",
       "124604         1             0          True      Indiana                   0   \n",
       "\n",
       "        new_time_remaining  new_log_distance  new_goal_to_go  new_under_two  \\\n",
       "124604              1113.0         -0.693147            True          False   \n",
       "\n",
       "       end_half_game  EP_start        TD    Opp_TD        FG    Opp_FG  \\\n",
       "124604         False  4.813544  0.613056  0.047959  0.305986  0.020547   \n",
       "\n",
       "        No_Score    Safety  Opp_Safety  EP_end       EPA  \n",
       "124604  0.005462  0.003883    0.003108     7.0  2.186456  "
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 50,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "regular_play[regular_play.play_type.str.contains(\"Touchdown\") & (regular_play.yard_line == 95) & (regular_play.play_text.str.contains(\"Greene\"))].head()"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 51,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "# regular_play[(~regular_play.play_text.str.contains(\"penalty\")) & (regular_play.down == 1) & (regular_play.yard_line == 25) & (regular_play.distance == 10) & (regular_play.yards_gained >= 10)].head()\n"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 52,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "# import coremltools\n",
    "\n",
    "# y_end, X_end = dmatrices(reg_equation, out_df, return_type='dataframe')\n",
    "\n",
    "# coreml_model = coremltools.converters.sklearn.convert(clf, X_end.columns.to_list(), \"drive_point\")\n",
    "# coreml_model\n"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 53,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stderr",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "WARNING:root:scikit-learn version 0.23.0 is not supported. Minimum required version: 0.17. Maximum required version: 0.19.2. Disabling scikit-learn conversion API.\n"
     ]
    },
    {
     "data": {
      "text/plain": [
       "input {\n",
       "  name: \"Intercept\"\n",
       "  shortDescription: \"Constant.\"\n",
       "  type {\n",
       "    doubleType {\n",
       "    }\n",
       "  }\n",
       "}\n",
       "input {\n",
       "  name: \"down2\"\n",
       "  shortDescription: \"Signifies second down.\"\n",
       "  type {\n",
       "    doubleType {\n",
       "    }\n",
       "  }\n",
       "}\n",
       "input {\n",
       "  name: \"down3\"\n",
       "  shortDescription: \"Signifies third down.\"\n",
       "  type {\n",
       "    doubleType {\n",
       "    }\n",
       "  }\n",
       "}\n",
       "input {\n",
       "  name: \"down4\"\n",
       "  shortDescription: \"Signifies fourth down.\"\n",
       "  type {\n",
       "    doubleType {\n",
       "    }\n",
       "  }\n",
       "}\n",
       "input {\n",
       "  name: \"goal_to_go\"\n",
       "  shortDescription: \"Signifies that the number of yards to gain for a first down is fewer than the number of yards left to gain for a touchdown.\"\n",
       "  type {\n",
       "    doubleType {\n",
       "    }\n",
       "  }\n",
       "}\n",
       "input {\n",
       "  name: \"under_two\"\n",
       "  shortDescription: \"Notes that there are under two minutes remaining in the game.\"\n",
       "  type {\n",
       "    doubleType {\n",
       "    }\n",
       "  }\n",
       "}\n",
       "input {\n",
       "  name: \"time_remaining\"\n",
       "  shortDescription: \"The time remaining in the game.\"\n",
       "  type {\n",
       "    doubleType {\n",
       "    }\n",
       "  }\n",
       "}\n",
       "input {\n",
       "  name: \"adjusted_yardline\"\n",
       "  shortDescription: \"The yards left to gain towards the end zone.\"\n",
       "  type {\n",
       "    doubleType {\n",
       "    }\n",
       "  }\n",
       "}\n",
       "input {\n",
       "  name: \"adjusted_yardline_down_2\"\n",
       "  shortDescription: \"The yards left to gain towards the end zone on second down.\"\n",
       "  type {\n",
       "    doubleType {\n",
       "    }\n",
       "  }\n",
       "}\n",
       "input {\n",
       "  name: \"adjusted_yardline_down_3\"\n",
       "  shortDescription: \"The yards left to gain towards the end zone on third down.\"\n",
       "  type {\n",
       "    doubleType {\n",
       "    }\n",
       "  }\n",
       "}\n",
       "input {\n",
       "  name: \"adjusted_yardline_down_4\"\n",
       "  shortDescription: \"The yards left to gain towards the end zone on fourth down.\"\n",
       "  type {\n",
       "    doubleType {\n",
       "    }\n",
       "  }\n",
       "}\n",
       "input {\n",
       "  name: \"log_distance\"\n",
       "  shortDescription: \"The logarithm of the number of yards to gain a first down.\"\n",
       "  type {\n",
       "    doubleType {\n",
       "    }\n",
       "  }\n",
       "}\n",
       "input {\n",
       "  name: \"log_distance_down_2\"\n",
       "  shortDescription: \"The logarithm of the number of yards to gain a first down on second down.\"\n",
       "  type {\n",
       "    doubleType {\n",
       "    }\n",
       "  }\n",
       "}\n",
       "input {\n",
       "  name: \"log_distance_down_3\"\n",
       "  shortDescription: \"The logarithm of the number of yards to gain a first down on third down\"\n",
       "  type {\n",
       "    doubleType {\n",
       "    }\n",
       "  }\n",
       "}\n",
       "input {\n",
       "  name: \"log_distance_down_4\"\n",
       "  shortDescription: \"The logarithm of the number of yards to gain a first down on fourth down\"\n",
       "  type {\n",
       "    doubleType {\n",
       "    }\n",
       "  }\n",
       "}\n",
       "input {\n",
       "  name: \"goal_to_go_log_distance\"\n",
       "  shortDescription: \"The logarithm of the number of yards to gain a first down when in goal-to-go situations.\"\n",
       "  type {\n",
       "    doubleType {\n",
       "    }\n",
       "  }\n",
       "}\n",
       "output {\n",
       "  name: \"next_drive_point\"\n",
       "  shortDescription: \"The outcome of the drive, in points.\"\n",
       "  type {\n",
       "    int64Type {\n",
       "    }\n",
       "  }\n",
       "}\n",
       "output {\n",
       "  name: \"classProbability\"\n",
       "  type {\n",
       "    dictionaryType {\n",
       "      int64KeyType {\n",
       "      }\n",
       "    }\n",
       "  }\n",
       "}\n",
       "predictedFeatureName: \"next_drive_point\"\n",
       "predictedProbabilitiesName: \"classProbability\"\n",
       "metadata {\n",
       "  shortDescription: \"Predicts expected points added by a football play given its context and activity. Translated from R, original model available as part of https://github.com/saiemgilani/cfbscrapR/.\"\n",
       "  author: \"Saiem Gilani, Meyappan Subbiah, and Parker Fleming for R code; Parker Fleming for original Python model; Akshay Easwaran for updates.\"\n",
       "  license: \"MIT\"\n",
       "  userDefined {\n",
       "    key: \"com.github.apple.coremltools.source\"\n",
       "    value: \"xgboost==1.2.0\"\n",
       "  }\n",
       "  userDefined {\n",
       "    key: \"com.github.apple.coremltools.version\"\n",
       "    value: \"4.0\"\n",
       "  }\n",
       "}"
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 53,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "# # CoreML model\n",
    "# classes : 7,-7,3,-3,0,2,-2\n",
    "\n",
    "import coremltools as cml\n",
    "cml_model = cml.converters.xgboost.convert(xgb_model, force_32bit_float=False, mode=\"classifier\", class_labels=[7,-7,3,-3,0,2,-2], n_classes=len(class_to_score_mapping), feature_names=['Intercept', 'down2', 'down3', 'down4',\n",
    "       'goal_to_go', 'under_two', 'time_remaining',\n",
    "       'adjusted_yardline', 'adjusted_yardline_down_2',\n",
    "       'adjusted_yardline_down_3', 'adjusted_yardline_down_4',\n",
    "       'log_distance', 'log_distance_down_2',\n",
    "       'log_distance_down_3', 'log_distance_down_4',\n",
    "       'goal_to_go_log_distance'], target=\"next_drive_point\")\n",
    "cml_model.author = 'Saiem Gilani, Meyappan Subbiah, and Parker Fleming for R code; Parker Fleming for original Python model; Akshay Easwaran for updates.'\n",
    "cml_model.license = 'MIT'\n",
    "cml_model.short_description = 'Predicts expected points added by a football play given its context and activity. Translated from R, original model available as part of https://github.com/saiemgilani/cfbscrapR/.'\n",
    "\n",
    "\n",
    "# Set feature descriptions manually\n",
    "cml_model.input_description['Intercept'] = 'Constant.'\n",
    "cml_model.input_description['down2'] = 'Signifies second down.'\n",
    "cml_model.input_description['down3'] = 'Signifies third down.'\n",
    "cml_model.input_description['down4'] = 'Signifies fourth down.'\n",
    "cml_model.input_description['goal_to_go'] = 'Signifies that the number of yards to gain for a first down is fewer than the number of yards left to gain for a touchdown.'\n",
    "cml_model.input_description['under_two'] = 'Notes that there are under two minutes remaining in the game.'\n",
    "cml_model.input_description['time_remaining'] = 'The time remaining in the game.'\n",
    "cml_model.input_description['adjusted_yardline'] = 'The yards left to gain towards the end zone.'\n",
    "cml_model.input_description['adjusted_yardline_down_2'] = 'The yards left to gain towards the end zone on second down.'\n",
    "cml_model.input_description['adjusted_yardline_down_3'] = 'The yards left to gain towards the end zone on third down.'\n",
    "cml_model.input_description['adjusted_yardline_down_4'] = 'The yards left to gain towards the end zone on fourth down.'\n",
    "cml_model.input_description['log_distance'] = 'The logarithm of the number of yards to gain a first down.'\n",
    "cml_model.input_description['log_distance_down_2'] = 'The logarithm of the number of yards to gain a first down on second down.'\n",
    "cml_model.input_description['log_distance_down_3'] = 'The logarithm of the number of yards to gain a first down on third down'\n",
    "cml_model.input_description['log_distance_down_4'] = 'The logarithm of the number of yards to gain a first down on fourth down'\n",
    "cml_model.input_description['goal_to_go_log_distance'] = 'The logarithm of the number of yards to gain a first down when in goal-to-go situations.'\n",
    "\n",
    "# Set the output descriptions\n",
    "cml_model.output_description['next_drive_point'] = 'The outcome of the drive, in points.'\n",
    "\n",
    "# Save the model\n",
    "cml_model.save('CFBEPA.mlmodel')\n",
    "cml_model"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 54,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "# pd.merge(out_df, X_end, left_index=True, right_index=True)"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 55,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
      "text/plain": [
       "Intercept                     1.000000\n",
       "down2                         0.000000\n",
       "down3                         0.000000\n",
       "down4                         0.000000\n",
       "goal_to_go                    0.000000\n",
       "under_two                     0.000000\n",
       "time_remaining              160.000000\n",
       "adjusted_yardline            75.000000\n",
       "adjusted_yardline_down_2      0.000000\n",
       "adjusted_yardline_down_3      0.000000\n",
       "adjusted_yardline_down_4      0.000000\n",
       "log_distance                  2.302585\n",
       "log_distance_down_2           0.000000\n",
       "log_distance_down_3           0.000000\n",
       "log_distance_down_4           0.000000\n",
       "goal_to_go_log_distance       0.000000\n",
       "Name: 785837, dtype: float64"
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 55,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "X_test.iloc[6311]"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 56,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
      "text/plain": [
       "play_type\n",
       "Blocked Field Goal                   -0.399965\n",
       "Blocked Field Goal Touchdown          0.927339\n",
       "Blocked Punt                         -0.651105\n",
       "Blocked Punt Touchdown               -5.162414\n",
       "Defensive 2pt Conversion             -4.715701\n",
       "Field Goal Good                       2.899123\n",
       "Field Goal Missed                    -0.265684\n",
       "Fumble Recovery (Opponent)           -2.967243\n",
       "Fumble Recovery (Own)                -0.932030\n",
       "Fumble Return Touchdown              -7.162140\n",
       "Interception Return Touchdown        -6.972565\n",
       "Missed Field Goal Return              0.512435\n",
       "Missed Field Goal Return Touchdown   -6.531981\n",
       "Pass                                 -3.158928\n",
       "Pass Completion                       0.548036\n",
       "Pass Incompletion                    -0.919882\n",
       "Pass Interception                    -2.159480\n",
       "Pass Interception Return             -2.214118\n",
       "Pass Reception                        0.885147\n",
       "Passing Touchdown                     4.119479\n",
       "Punt                                 -0.692173\n",
       "Punt Return Touchdown                -5.999754\n",
       "Rush                                 -0.191592\n",
       "Rushing Touchdown                     2.675199\n",
       "Sack                                 -1.190083\n",
       "Safety                               -0.556274\n",
       "Name: EPA, dtype: float32"
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 56,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "grouped_plays = regular_play[(regular_play.down < 5) & (regular_play.period < 5) & (~((regular_play.play_text.str.contains(\"penalty\")) | (regular_play.play_text.str.contains(\"PENALTY\"))))].groupby('play_type')\n",
    "grouped_plays['EPA'].mean()"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 57,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stderr",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "/Users/akeaswaran/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/ipykernel_launcher.py:6: SettingWithCopyWarning: \n",
      "A value is trying to be set on a copy of a slice from a DataFrame.\n",
      "Try using .loc[row_indexer,col_indexer] = value instead\n",
      "\n",
      "See the caveats in the documentation: https://pandas.pydata.org/pandas-docs/stable/user_guide/indexing.html#returning-a-view-versus-a-copy\n",
      "  \n"
     ]
    },
    {
     "data": {
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       "<style scoped>\n",
       "    .dataframe tbody tr th:only-of-type {\n",
       "        vertical-align: middle;\n",
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       "\n",
       "    .dataframe tbody tr th {\n",
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       "<table border=\"1\" class=\"dataframe\">\n",
       "  <thead>\n",
       "    <tr style=\"text-align: right;\">\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th>id</th>\n",
       "      <th>offense</th>\n",
       "      <th>offense_conference</th>\n",
       "      <th>defense</th>\n",
       "      <th>defense_conference</th>\n",
       "      <th>home</th>\n",
       "      <th>away</th>\n",
       "      <th>offense_score</th>\n",
       "      <th>defense_score</th>\n",
       "      <th>drive_id</th>\n",
       "      <th>period</th>\n",
       "      <th>clock.minutes</th>\n",
       "      <th>clock.seconds</th>\n",
       "      <th>yard_line</th>\n",
       "      <th>down</th>\n",
       "      <th>distance</th>\n",
       "      <th>yards_gained</th>\n",
       "      <th>play_type</th>\n",
       "      <th>play_text</th>\n",
       "      <th>ppa</th>\n",
       "      <th>year</th>\n",
       "      <th>play_id</th>\n",
       "      <th>home_team</th>\n",
       "      <th>coef</th>\n",
       "      <th>adjusted_yardline</th>\n",
       "      <th>margin</th>\n",
       "      <th>time_remaining</th>\n",
       "      <th>log_distance</th>\n",
       "      <th>goal_to_go</th>\n",
       "      <th>under_two</th>\n",
       "      <th>abs_diff</th>\n",
       "      <th>ScoreDiff_W</th>\n",
       "      <th>game_id</th>\n",
       "      <th>DSH</th>\n",
       "      <th>drive_point</th>\n",
       "      <th>drive_result</th>\n",
       "      <th>next_drive_point</th>\n",
       "      <th>Drive_Score_Dist_W</th>\n",
       "      <th>Total_W</th>\n",
       "      <th>Total_W_Scaled</th>\n",
       "      <th>off_full_name</th>\n",
       "      <th>off_abbr</th>\n",
       "      <th>def_full_name</th>\n",
       "      <th>def_abbr</th>\n",
       "      <th>half</th>\n",
       "      <th>new_yardline</th>\n",
       "      <th>new_down</th>\n",
       "      <th>new_distance</th>\n",
       "      <th>turnover_end</th>\n",
       "      <th>next_offense</th>\n",
       "      <th>turnover_indicator</th>\n",
       "      <th>new_time_remaining</th>\n",
       "      <th>new_log_distance</th>\n",
       "      <th>new_goal_to_go</th>\n",
       "      <th>new_under_two</th>\n",
       "      <th>end_half_game</th>\n",
       "      <th>EP_start</th>\n",
       "      <th>TD</th>\n",
       "      <th>Opp_TD</th>\n",
       "      <th>FG</th>\n",
       "      <th>Opp_FG</th>\n",
       "      <th>No_Score</th>\n",
       "      <th>Safety</th>\n",
       "      <th>Opp_Safety</th>\n",
       "      <th>EP_end</th>\n",
       "      <th>EPA</th>\n",
       "      <th>time_spent</th>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "  </thead>\n",
       "  <tbody>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>5</th>\n",
       "      <td>400548186102999902</td>\n",
       "      <td>Auburn</td>\n",
       "      <td>SEC</td>\n",
       "      <td>San José State</td>\n",
       "      <td>Mountain West</td>\n",
       "      <td>Auburn</td>\n",
       "      <td>San José State</td>\n",
       "      <td>38</td>\n",
       "      <td>10</td>\n",
       "      <td>40054818614</td>\n",
       "      <td>2</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>89</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>10</td>\n",
       "      <td>27</td>\n",
       "      <td>Field Goal Good</td>\n",
       "      <td>Daniel Carlson 27 yd FG GOOD</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>2014</td>\n",
       "      <td>400548186102999902</td>\n",
       "      <td>Auburn</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>11</td>\n",
       "      <td>28</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>2.302585</td>\n",
       "      <td>True</td>\n",
       "      <td>True</td>\n",
       "      <td>28</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.662651</td>\n",
       "      <td>400548186</td>\n",
       "      <td>40054818614</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>END OF HALF</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>1.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>1.662651</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.745455</td>\n",
       "      <td>Auburn</td>\n",
       "      <td>Aub</td>\n",
       "      <td>San José State</td>\n",
       "      <td>SJSt</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>99.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>True</td>\n",
       "      <td>San José State</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>1770.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>-0.693147</td>\n",
       "      <td>True</td>\n",
       "      <td>False</td>\n",
       "      <td>False</td>\n",
       "      <td>3.528567</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.589268</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.121716</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.160365</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.075858</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.045998</td>\n",
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       "      <td>0.002852</td>\n",
       "      <td>3.000000</td>\n",
       "      <td>-0.528567</td>\n",
       "      <td>-1770.0</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>6</th>\n",
       "      <td>401117528101917801</td>\n",
       "      <td>Fresno State</td>\n",
       "      <td>Mountain West</td>\n",
       "      <td>UNLV</td>\n",
       "      <td>Mountain West</td>\n",
       "      <td>Fresno State</td>\n",
       "      <td>UNLV</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>3</td>\n",
       "      <td>4011175284</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>23</td>\n",
       "      <td>21</td>\n",
       "      <td>71</td>\n",
       "      <td>4</td>\n",
       "      <td>7</td>\n",
       "      <td>46</td>\n",
       "      <td>Field Goal Missed</td>\n",
       "      <td>Cesar Silva 46 yd FG MISSED</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>2019</td>\n",
       "      <td>401117528101917801</td>\n",
       "      <td>Fresno State</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>29</td>\n",
       "      <td>-3</td>\n",
       "      <td>1401</td>\n",
       "      <td>1.945910</td>\n",
       "      <td>False</td>\n",
       "      <td>False</td>\n",
       "      <td>3</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.963855</td>\n",
       "      <td>401117528</td>\n",
       "      <td>4011175286</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>MISSED FG</td>\n",
       "      <td>7</td>\n",
       "      <td>1.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>1.963855</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.972727</td>\n",
       "      <td>Fresno State</td>\n",
       "      <td>FrsSt</td>\n",
       "      <td>UNLV</td>\n",
       "      <td>UNLV</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>70.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>10</td>\n",
       "      <td>True</td>\n",
       "      <td>UNLV</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>1401.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>2.302585</td>\n",
       "      <td>False</td>\n",
       "      <td>False</td>\n",
       "      <td>False</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.388014</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.416812</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.345371</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.090791</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.127182</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.006720</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.005837</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.007287</td>\n",
       "      <td>-1.194128</td>\n",
       "      <td>-1.582142</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.0</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>9</th>\n",
       "      <td>400935294104947301</td>\n",
       "      <td>Washington State</td>\n",
       "      <td>Pac-12</td>\n",
       "      <td>California</td>\n",
       "      <td>Pac-12</td>\n",
       "      <td>California</td>\n",
       "      <td>Washington State</td>\n",
       "      <td>3</td>\n",
       "      <td>37</td>\n",
       "      <td>40093529424</td>\n",
       "      <td>4</td>\n",
       "      <td>5</td>\n",
       "      <td>26</td>\n",
       "      <td>58</td>\n",
       "      <td>4</td>\n",
       "      <td>4</td>\n",
       "      <td>26</td>\n",
       "      <td>Fumble Return Touchdown</td>\n",
       "      <td>Gerran Brown 26 Yd Fumble Return (Matt Anderso...</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>2017</td>\n",
       "      <td>400935294104947301</td>\n",
       "      <td>California</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>58</td>\n",
       "      <td>-34</td>\n",
       "      <td>326</td>\n",
       "      <td>1.386294</td>\n",
       "      <td>False</td>\n",
       "      <td>False</td>\n",
       "      <td>34</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.590361</td>\n",
       "      <td>400935294</td>\n",
       "      <td>40093529424</td>\n",
       "      <td>-7</td>\n",
       "      <td>FUMBLE RETURN TD</td>\n",
       "      <td>-7</td>\n",
       "      <td>1.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>1.590361</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.690909</td>\n",
       "      <td>Washington State</td>\n",
       "      <td>WshSt</td>\n",
       "      <td>California</td>\n",
       "      <td>Cal</td>\n",
       "      <td>2</td>\n",
       "      <td>99.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>10</td>\n",
       "      <td>True</td>\n",
       "      <td>Washington State</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>317.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>2.302585</td>\n",
       "      <td>True</td>\n",
       "      <td>False</td>\n",
       "      <td>False</td>\n",
       "      <td>-1.282102</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.269415</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.388632</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.064616</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.213911</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.053633</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.004971</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.004822</td>\n",
       "      <td>-7.000000</td>\n",
       "      <td>-5.717898</td>\n",
       "      <td>9.0</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>14</th>\n",
       "      <td>332430264111</td>\n",
       "      <td>Washington</td>\n",
       "      <td>Pac-12</td>\n",
       "      <td>Boise State</td>\n",
       "      <td>Mountain West</td>\n",
       "      <td>Washington</td>\n",
       "      <td>Boise State</td>\n",
       "      <td>10</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>33243026409</td>\n",
       "      <td>2</td>\n",
       "      <td>8</td>\n",
       "      <td>33</td>\n",
       "      <td>25</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>10</td>\n",
       "      <td>6</td>\n",
       "      <td>Pass Completion</td>\n",
       "      <td>Keith Price pass complete to Jaydon Mickens fo...</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.333375</td>\n",
       "      <td>2013</td>\n",
       "      <td>332430264111</td>\n",
       "      <td>Washington</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>75</td>\n",
       "      <td>10</td>\n",
       "      <td>513</td>\n",
       "      <td>2.302585</td>\n",
       "      <td>False</td>\n",
       "      <td>False</td>\n",
       "      <td>10</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.879518</td>\n",
       "      <td>332430264</td>\n",
       "      <td>33243026410</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>PUNT</td>\n",
       "      <td>-3</td>\n",
       "      <td>1.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>1.879518</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.909091</td>\n",
       "      <td>Washington</td>\n",
       "      <td>Wash</td>\n",
       "      <td>Boise State</td>\n",
       "      <td>BoiSt</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>69.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>2</td>\n",
       "      <td>4</td>\n",
       "      <td>False</td>\n",
       "      <td>Washington</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>513.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>1.386294</td>\n",
       "      <td>False</td>\n",
       "      <td>False</td>\n",
       "      <td>False</td>\n",
       "      <td>-0.315128</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.338380</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.373575</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.100407</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.124355</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.052563</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.006131</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.004590</td>\n",
       "      <td>-0.201595</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.113533</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.0</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>15</th>\n",
       "      <td>323150062002</td>\n",
       "      <td>Hawai'i</td>\n",
       "      <td>Mountain West</td>\n",
       "      <td>Boise State</td>\n",
       "      <td>Mountain West</td>\n",
       "      <td>Hawai'i</td>\n",
       "      <td>Boise State</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>32315006201</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>29</td>\n",
       "      <td>55</td>\n",
       "      <td>21</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>10</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>Pass Incompletion</td>\n",
       "      <td>Sean Schroeder pass incomplete to Joey Iosefa.</td>\n",
       "      <td>-0.585616</td>\n",
       "      <td>2012</td>\n",
       "      <td>323150062002</td>\n",
       "      <td>Hawai'i</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>79</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>1795</td>\n",
       "      <td>2.302585</td>\n",
       "      <td>False</td>\n",
       "      <td>False</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>1.000000</td>\n",
       "      <td>323150062</td>\n",
       "      <td>32315006202</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>PUNT</td>\n",
       "      <td>-7</td>\n",
       "      <td>1.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>2.000000</td>\n",
       "      <td>1.000000</td>\n",
       "      <td>Hawai'i</td>\n",
       "      <td>Hawa</td>\n",
       "      <td>Boise State</td>\n",
       "      <td>BoiSt</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>79.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>2</td>\n",
       "      <td>10</td>\n",
       "      <td>False</td>\n",
       "      <td>Hawai'i</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>1778.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>2.302585</td>\n",
       "      <td>False</td>\n",
       "      <td>False</td>\n",
       "      <td>False</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.719737</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.407483</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.320384</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.145742</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.109606</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.006987</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.005308</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.004490</td>\n",
       "      <td>-0.218460</td>\n",
       "      <td>-0.938197</td>\n",
       "      <td>17.0</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>16</th>\n",
       "      <td>322520183011</td>\n",
       "      <td>Syracuse</td>\n",
       "      <td>Big East</td>\n",
       "      <td>USC</td>\n",
       "      <td>Pac-12</td>\n",
       "      <td>Syracuse</td>\n",
       "      <td>USC</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>32252018302</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>27</td>\n",
       "      <td>4</td>\n",
       "      <td>67</td>\n",
       "      <td>3</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>2</td>\n",
       "      <td>Pass Interception</td>\n",
       "      <td>Ryan Nassib pass intercepted by Dion Bailey at...</td>\n",
       "      <td>-3.696941</td>\n",
       "      <td>2012</td>\n",
       "      <td>322520183011</td>\n",
       "      <td>Syracuse</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>33</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>1624</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.000000</td>\n",
       "      <td>False</td>\n",
       "      <td>False</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>1.000000</td>\n",
       "      <td>322520183</td>\n",
       "      <td>32252018307</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>INT</td>\n",
       "      <td>-7</td>\n",
       "      <td>1.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>2.000000</td>\n",
       "      <td>1.000000</td>\n",
       "      <td>Syracuse</td>\n",
       "      <td>Syrac</td>\n",
       "      <td>USC</td>\n",
       "      <td>USC</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>69.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>10</td>\n",
       "      <td>True</td>\n",
       "      <td>USC</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>1617.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>2.302585</td>\n",
       "      <td>False</td>\n",
       "      <td>False</td>\n",
       "      <td>False</td>\n",
       "      <td>3.229273</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.535605</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.153939</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.240652</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.055428</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.006754</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.004295</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.003325</td>\n",
       "      <td>-1.440102</td>\n",
       "      <td>-4.669375</td>\n",
       "      <td>7.0</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>19</th>\n",
       "      <td>400869602104885301</td>\n",
       "      <td>Kansas</td>\n",
       "      <td>Big 12</td>\n",
       "      <td>West Virginia</td>\n",
       "      <td>Big 12</td>\n",
       "      <td>West Virginia</td>\n",
       "      <td>Kansas</td>\n",
       "      <td>21</td>\n",
       "      <td>45</td>\n",
       "      <td>40086960225</td>\n",
       "      <td>4</td>\n",
       "      <td>11</td>\n",
       "      <td>46</td>\n",
       "      <td>11</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>10</td>\n",
       "      <td>11</td>\n",
       "      <td>Passing Touchdown</td>\n",
       "      <td>Steven Sims Jr. 11 Yd pass from Carter Stanley...</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>2016</td>\n",
       "      <td>400869602104885301</td>\n",
       "      <td>West Virginia</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>11</td>\n",
       "      <td>-24</td>\n",
       "      <td>706</td>\n",
       "      <td>2.302585</td>\n",
       "      <td>False</td>\n",
       "      <td>False</td>\n",
       "      <td>24</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.710843</td>\n",
       "      <td>400869602</td>\n",
       "      <td>40086960225</td>\n",
       "      <td>7</td>\n",
       "      <td>TD</td>\n",
       "      <td>7</td>\n",
       "      <td>1.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>1.710843</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.781818</td>\n",
       "      <td>Kansas</td>\n",
       "      <td>Kans</td>\n",
       "      <td>West Virginia</td>\n",
       "      <td>WVirg</td>\n",
       "      <td>2</td>\n",
       "      <td>99.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>True</td>\n",
       "      <td>West Virginia</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>686.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>-0.693147</td>\n",
       "      <td>True</td>\n",
       "      <td>False</td>\n",
       "      <td>False</td>\n",
       "      <td>4.680874</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.661967</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.077000</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.219728</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.025078</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.009042</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.004132</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.003054</td>\n",
       "      <td>7.000000</td>\n",
       "      <td>2.319126</td>\n",
       "      <td>20.0</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>20</th>\n",
       "      <td>400603829101967901</td>\n",
       "      <td>Louisville</td>\n",
       "      <td>ACC</td>\n",
       "      <td>Auburn</td>\n",
       "      <td>SEC</td>\n",
       "      <td>Auburn</td>\n",
       "      <td>Louisville</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>7</td>\n",
       "      <td>4006038295</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>18</td>\n",
       "      <td>20</td>\n",
       "      <td>76</td>\n",
       "      <td>4</td>\n",
       "      <td>18</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>Punt</td>\n",
       "      <td>Joshua Appleby punt for 41 yds, punt out-of-bo...</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>2015</td>\n",
       "      <td>400603829101967901</td>\n",
       "      <td>Auburn</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>76</td>\n",
       "      <td>-7</td>\n",
       "      <td>1100</td>\n",
       "      <td>2.890372</td>\n",
       "      <td>False</td>\n",
       "      <td>False</td>\n",
       "      <td>7</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.915663</td>\n",
       "      <td>400603829</td>\n",
       "      <td>4006038299</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>PUNT</td>\n",
       "      <td>7</td>\n",
       "      <td>1.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>1.915663</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.936364</td>\n",
       "      <td>Louisville</td>\n",
       "      <td>Lvile</td>\n",
       "      <td>Auburn</td>\n",
       "      <td>Aub</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>24.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>10</td>\n",
       "      <td>True</td>\n",
       "      <td>Auburn</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>1086.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>2.302585</td>\n",
       "      <td>False</td>\n",
       "      <td>False</td>\n",
       "      <td>False</td>\n",
       "      <td>-1.627083</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.259294</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.423679</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.055068</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.151915</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.007262</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.004929</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.097852</td>\n",
       "      <td>-4.092578</td>\n",
       "      <td>-2.465495</td>\n",
       "      <td>14.0</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>22</th>\n",
       "      <td>400547659102928901</td>\n",
       "      <td>Toledo</td>\n",
       "      <td>Mid-American</td>\n",
       "      <td>Cincinnati</td>\n",
       "      <td>American Athletic</td>\n",
       "      <td>Cincinnati</td>\n",
       "      <td>Toledo</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>34</td>\n",
       "      <td>4005476599</td>\n",
       "      <td>2</td>\n",
       "      <td>7</td>\n",
       "      <td>10</td>\n",
       "      <td>16</td>\n",
       "      <td>2</td>\n",
       "      <td>4</td>\n",
       "      <td>13</td>\n",
       "      <td>Rush</td>\n",
       "      <td>Kareem Hunt run for 13 yds to the Cincy 3 for ...</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.993806</td>\n",
       "      <td>2014</td>\n",
       "      <td>400547659102928901</td>\n",
       "      <td>Cincinnati</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>16</td>\n",
       "      <td>-34</td>\n",
       "      <td>430</td>\n",
       "      <td>1.386294</td>\n",
       "      <td>False</td>\n",
       "      <td>False</td>\n",
       "      <td>34</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.590361</td>\n",
       "      <td>400547659</td>\n",
       "      <td>4005476599</td>\n",
       "      <td>7</td>\n",
       "      <td>TD</td>\n",
       "      <td>7</td>\n",
       "      <td>1.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>1.590361</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.690909</td>\n",
       "      <td>Toledo</td>\n",
       "      <td>Toled</td>\n",
       "      <td>Cincinnati</td>\n",
       "      <td>Cincy</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>3.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>16</td>\n",
       "      <td>False</td>\n",
       "      <td>Toledo</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>415.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>2.772589</td>\n",
       "      <td>True</td>\n",
       "      <td>False</td>\n",
       "      <td>False</td>\n",
       "      <td>4.267842</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.609338</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.091221</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.242404</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.029389</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.020233</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.004203</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.003212</td>\n",
       "      <td>5.351572</td>\n",
       "      <td>1.083730</td>\n",
       "      <td>15.0</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>23</th>\n",
       "      <td>400787269101926501</td>\n",
       "      <td>New Mexico</td>\n",
       "      <td>Mountain West</td>\n",
       "      <td>San José State</td>\n",
       "      <td>Mountain West</td>\n",
       "      <td>San José State</td>\n",
       "      <td>New Mexico</td>\n",
       "      <td>7</td>\n",
       "      <td>7</td>\n",
       "      <td>4007872694</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>22</td>\n",
       "      <td>34</td>\n",
       "      <td>79</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>10</td>\n",
       "      <td>79</td>\n",
       "      <td>Rushing Touchdown</td>\n",
       "      <td>Teriyon Gipson run for 79 yds for a TD, (Zack ...</td>\n",
       "      <td>6.330535</td>\n",
       "      <td>2015</td>\n",
       "      <td>400787269101926501</td>\n",
       "      <td>San José State</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>79</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>1354</td>\n",
       "      <td>2.302585</td>\n",
       "      <td>False</td>\n",
       "      <td>False</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>1.000000</td>\n",
       "      <td>400787269</td>\n",
       "      <td>4007872694</td>\n",
       "      <td>7</td>\n",
       "      <td>TD</td>\n",
       "      <td>7</td>\n",
       "      <td>1.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>2.000000</td>\n",
       "      <td>1.000000</td>\n",
       "      <td>New Mexico</td>\n",
       "      <td>NMex</td>\n",
       "      <td>San José State</td>\n",
       "      <td>SJSt</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>99.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>True</td>\n",
       "      <td>San José State</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>1354.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>-0.693147</td>\n",
       "      <td>True</td>\n",
       "      <td>False</td>\n",
       "      <td>False</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.533216</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.400262</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.333928</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.133746</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.111860</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.008748</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.006533</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.004922</td>\n",
       "      <td>7.000000</td>\n",
       "      <td>6.466784</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.0</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>24</th>\n",
       "      <td>400757054102957310</td>\n",
       "      <td>Washington</td>\n",
       "      <td>Pac-12</td>\n",
       "      <td>Oregon</td>\n",
       "      <td>Pac-12</td>\n",
       "      <td>Washington</td>\n",
       "      <td>Oregon</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>13</td>\n",
       "      <td>40075705410</td>\n",
       "      <td>2</td>\n",
       "      <td>4</td>\n",
       "      <td>26</td>\n",
       "      <td>82</td>\n",
       "      <td>3</td>\n",
       "      <td>3</td>\n",
       "      <td>-4</td>\n",
       "      <td>Sack</td>\n",
       "      <td>Jake Browning sacked by Tui Talia for a loss o...</td>\n",
       "      <td>-1.168014</td>\n",
       "      <td>2015</td>\n",
       "      <td>400757054102957310</td>\n",
       "      <td>Washington</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>18</td>\n",
       "      <td>-13</td>\n",
       "      <td>266</td>\n",
       "      <td>1.098612</td>\n",
       "      <td>False</td>\n",
       "      <td>False</td>\n",
       "      <td>13</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.843373</td>\n",
       "      <td>400757054</td>\n",
       "      <td>40075705410</td>\n",
       "      <td>3</td>\n",
       "      <td>FG</td>\n",
       "      <td>3</td>\n",
       "      <td>1.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>1.843373</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.881818</td>\n",
       "      <td>Washington</td>\n",
       "      <td>Wash</td>\n",
       "      <td>Oregon</td>\n",
       "      <td>Oregn</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>22.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>4</td>\n",
       "      <td>7</td>\n",
       "      <td>False</td>\n",
       "      <td>Washington</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>66.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>1.945910</td>\n",
       "      <td>False</td>\n",
       "      <td>True</td>\n",
       "      <td>False</td>\n",
       "      <td>2.570655</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.393659</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.144760</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.340280</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.065158</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.047997</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.004821</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.003324</td>\n",
       "      <td>-1.575804</td>\n",
       "      <td>-4.146460</td>\n",
       "      <td>200.0</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>25</th>\n",
       "      <td>400548104101924101</td>\n",
       "      <td>Kent State</td>\n",
       "      <td>Mid-American</td>\n",
       "      <td>South Alabama</td>\n",
       "      <td>Sun Belt</td>\n",
       "      <td>Kent State</td>\n",
       "      <td>South Alabama</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>2</td>\n",
       "      <td>4005481045</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>22</td>\n",
       "      <td>58</td>\n",
       "      <td>5</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>10</td>\n",
       "      <td>-5</td>\n",
       "      <td>Safety</td>\n",
       "      <td>Davin Hawkins Safety</td>\n",
       "      <td>-2.081638</td>\n",
       "      <td>2014</td>\n",
       "      <td>400548104101924101</td>\n",
       "      <td>Kent State</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>95</td>\n",
       "      <td>-2</td>\n",
       "      <td>1378</td>\n",
       "      <td>2.302585</td>\n",
       "      <td>False</td>\n",
       "      <td>False</td>\n",
       "      <td>2</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.975904</td>\n",
       "      <td>400548104</td>\n",
       "      <td>4005481045</td>\n",
       "      <td>-2</td>\n",
       "      <td>SF</td>\n",
       "      <td>-2</td>\n",
       "      <td>1.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>1.975904</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.981818</td>\n",
       "      <td>Kent State</td>\n",
       "      <td>KntSt</td>\n",
       "      <td>South Alabama</td>\n",
       "      <td>SAlab</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>99.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>True</td>\n",
       "      <td>South Alabama</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>1372.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>-0.693147</td>\n",
       "      <td>True</td>\n",
       "      <td>False</td>\n",
       "      <td>False</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.042356</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.369843</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.343570</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.102974</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.128949</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.009305</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.006772</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.038588</td>\n",
       "      <td>-2.000000</td>\n",
       "      <td>-2.042356</td>\n",
       "      <td>6.0</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "  </tbody>\n",
       "</table>\n",
       "</div>"
      ],
      "text/plain": [
       "                    id           offense offense_conference         defense  \\\n",
       "5   400548186102999902            Auburn                SEC  San José State   \n",
       "6   401117528101917801      Fresno State      Mountain West            UNLV   \n",
       "9   400935294104947301  Washington State             Pac-12      California   \n",
       "14        332430264111        Washington             Pac-12     Boise State   \n",
       "15        323150062002           Hawai'i      Mountain West     Boise State   \n",
       "16        322520183011          Syracuse           Big East             USC   \n",
       "19  400869602104885301            Kansas             Big 12   West Virginia   \n",
       "20  400603829101967901        Louisville                ACC          Auburn   \n",
       "22  400547659102928901            Toledo       Mid-American      Cincinnati   \n",
       "23  400787269101926501        New Mexico      Mountain West  San José State   \n",
       "24  400757054102957310        Washington             Pac-12          Oregon   \n",
       "25  400548104101924101        Kent State       Mid-American   South Alabama   \n",
       "\n",
       "   defense_conference            home              away  offense_score  \\\n",
       "5       Mountain West          Auburn    San José State             38   \n",
       "6       Mountain West    Fresno State              UNLV              0   \n",
       "9              Pac-12      California  Washington State              3   \n",
       "14      Mountain West      Washington       Boise State             10   \n",
       "15      Mountain West         Hawai'i       Boise State              0   \n",
       "16             Pac-12        Syracuse               USC              0   \n",
       "19             Big 12   West Virginia            Kansas             21   \n",
       "20                SEC          Auburn        Louisville              0   \n",
       "22  American Athletic      Cincinnati            Toledo              0   \n",
       "23      Mountain West  San José State        New Mexico              7   \n",
       "24             Pac-12      Washington            Oregon              0   \n",
       "25           Sun Belt      Kent State     South Alabama              0   \n",
       "\n",
       "    defense_score     drive_id  period  clock.minutes  clock.seconds  \\\n",
       "5              10  40054818614       2              0              0   \n",
       "6               3   4011175284       1             23             21   \n",
       "9              37  40093529424       4              5             26   \n",
       "14              0  33243026409       2              8             33   \n",
       "15              0  32315006201       1             29             55   \n",
       "16              0  32252018302       1             27              4   \n",
       "19             45  40086960225       4             11             46   \n",
       "20              7   4006038295       1             18             20   \n",
       "22             34   4005476599       2              7             10   \n",
       "23              7   4007872694       1             22             34   \n",
       "24             13  40075705410       2              4             26   \n",
       "25              2   4005481045       1             22             58   \n",
       "\n",
       "    yard_line  down  distance  yards_gained                play_type  \\\n",
       "5          89     1        10            27          Field Goal Good   \n",
       "6          71     4         7            46        Field Goal Missed   \n",
       "9          58     4         4            26  Fumble Return Touchdown   \n",
       "14         25     1        10             6          Pass Completion   \n",
       "15         21     1        10             0        Pass Incompletion   \n",
       "16         67     3         1             2        Pass Interception   \n",
       "19         11     1        10            11        Passing Touchdown   \n",
       "20         76     4        18             0                     Punt   \n",
       "22         16     2         4            13                     Rush   \n",
       "23         79     1        10            79        Rushing Touchdown   \n",
       "24         82     3         3            -4                     Sack   \n",
       "25          5     1        10            -5                   Safety   \n",
       "\n",
       "                                            play_text       ppa  year  \\\n",
       "5                        Daniel Carlson 27 yd FG GOOD       NaN  2014   \n",
       "6                         Cesar Silva 46 yd FG MISSED       NaN  2019   \n",
       "9   Gerran Brown 26 Yd Fumble Return (Matt Anderso...       NaN  2017   \n",
       "14  Keith Price pass complete to Jaydon Mickens fo...  0.333375  2013   \n",
       "15     Sean Schroeder pass incomplete to Joey Iosefa. -0.585616  2012   \n",
       "16  Ryan Nassib pass intercepted by Dion Bailey at... -3.696941  2012   \n",
       "19  Steven Sims Jr. 11 Yd pass from Carter Stanley...       NaN  2016   \n",
       "20  Joshua Appleby punt for 41 yds, punt out-of-bo...       NaN  2015   \n",
       "22  Kareem Hunt run for 13 yds to the Cincy 3 for ...  0.993806  2014   \n",
       "23  Teriyon Gipson run for 79 yds for a TD, (Zack ...  6.330535  2015   \n",
       "24  Jake Browning sacked by Tui Talia for a loss o... -1.168014  2015   \n",
       "25                               Davin Hawkins Safety -2.081638  2014   \n",
       "\n",
       "               play_id       home_team  coef  adjusted_yardline  margin  \\\n",
       "5   400548186102999902          Auburn     0                 11      28   \n",
       "6   401117528101917801    Fresno State     0                 29      -3   \n",
       "9   400935294104947301      California     1                 58     -34   \n",
       "14        332430264111      Washington     0                 75      10   \n",
       "15        323150062002         Hawai'i     0                 79       0   \n",
       "16        322520183011        Syracuse     0                 33       0   \n",
       "19  400869602104885301   West Virginia     1                 11     -24   \n",
       "20  400603829101967901          Auburn     1                 76      -7   \n",
       "22  400547659102928901      Cincinnati     1                 16     -34   \n",
       "23  400787269101926501  San José State     1                 79       0   \n",
       "24  400757054102957310      Washington     0                 18     -13   \n",
       "25  400548104101924101      Kent State     0                 95      -2   \n",
       "\n",
       "    time_remaining  log_distance  goal_to_go  under_two  abs_diff  \\\n",
       "5                0      2.302585        True       True        28   \n",
       "6             1401      1.945910       False      False         3   \n",
       "9              326      1.386294       False      False        34   \n",
       "14             513      2.302585       False      False        10   \n",
       "15            1795      2.302585       False      False         0   \n",
       "16            1624      0.000000       False      False         0   \n",
       "19             706      2.302585       False      False        24   \n",
       "20            1100      2.890372       False      False         7   \n",
       "22             430      1.386294       False      False        34   \n",
       "23            1354      2.302585       False      False         0   \n",
       "24             266      1.098612       False      False        13   \n",
       "25            1378      2.302585       False      False         2   \n",
       "\n",
       "    ScoreDiff_W    game_id          DSH  drive_point      drive_result  \\\n",
       "5      0.662651  400548186  40054818614            0       END OF HALF   \n",
       "6      0.963855  401117528   4011175286            0         MISSED FG   \n",
       "9      0.590361  400935294  40093529424           -7  FUMBLE RETURN TD   \n",
       "14     0.879518  332430264  33243026410            0              PUNT   \n",
       "15     1.000000  323150062  32315006202            0              PUNT   \n",
       "16     1.000000  322520183  32252018307            0               INT   \n",
       "19     0.710843  400869602  40086960225            7                TD   \n",
       "20     0.915663  400603829   4006038299            0              PUNT   \n",
       "22     0.590361  400547659   4005476599            7                TD   \n",
       "23     1.000000  400787269   4007872694            7                TD   \n",
       "24     0.843373  400757054  40075705410            3                FG   \n",
       "25     0.975904  400548104   4005481045           -2                SF   \n",
       "\n",
       "    next_drive_point  Drive_Score_Dist_W   Total_W  Total_W_Scaled  \\\n",
       "5                  0                 1.0  1.662651        0.745455   \n",
       "6                  7                 1.0  1.963855        0.972727   \n",
       "9                 -7                 1.0  1.590361        0.690909   \n",
       "14                -3                 1.0  1.879518        0.909091   \n",
       "15                -7                 1.0  2.000000        1.000000   \n",
       "16                -7                 1.0  2.000000        1.000000   \n",
       "19                 7                 1.0  1.710843        0.781818   \n",
       "20                 7                 1.0  1.915663        0.936364   \n",
       "22                 7                 1.0  1.590361        0.690909   \n",
       "23                 7                 1.0  2.000000        1.000000   \n",
       "24                 3                 1.0  1.843373        0.881818   \n",
       "25                -2                 1.0  1.975904        0.981818   \n",
       "\n",
       "       off_full_name off_abbr   def_full_name def_abbr  half  new_yardline  \\\n",
       "5             Auburn      Aub  San José State     SJSt     1          99.0   \n",
       "6       Fresno State    FrsSt            UNLV     UNLV     1          70.0   \n",
       "9   Washington State    WshSt      California      Cal     2          99.0   \n",
       "14        Washington     Wash     Boise State    BoiSt     1          69.0   \n",
       "15           Hawai'i     Hawa     Boise State    BoiSt     1          79.0   \n",
       "16          Syracuse    Syrac             USC      USC     1          69.0   \n",
       "19            Kansas     Kans   West Virginia    WVirg     2          99.0   \n",
       "20        Louisville    Lvile          Auburn      Aub     1          24.0   \n",
       "22            Toledo    Toled      Cincinnati    Cincy     1           3.0   \n",
       "23        New Mexico     NMex  San José State     SJSt     1          99.0   \n",
       "24        Washington     Wash          Oregon    Oregn     1          22.0   \n",
       "25        Kent State    KntSt   South Alabama    SAlab     1          99.0   \n",
       "\n",
       "    new_down  new_distance  turnover_end      next_offense  \\\n",
       "5          1             0          True    San José State   \n",
       "6          1            10          True              UNLV   \n",
       "9          1            10          True  Washington State   \n",
       "14         2             4         False        Washington   \n",
       "15         2            10         False           Hawai'i   \n",
       "16         1            10          True               USC   \n",
       "19         1             0          True     West Virginia   \n",
       "20         1            10          True            Auburn   \n",
       "22         1            16         False            Toledo   \n",
       "23         1             0          True    San José State   \n",
       "24         4             7         False        Washington   \n",
       "25         1             0          True     South Alabama   \n",
       "\n",
       "    turnover_indicator  new_time_remaining  new_log_distance  new_goal_to_go  \\\n",
       "5                    0              1770.0         -0.693147            True   \n",
       "6                    1              1401.0          2.302585           False   \n",
       "9                    1               317.0          2.302585            True   \n",
       "14                   0               513.0          1.386294           False   \n",
       "15                   0              1778.0          2.302585           False   \n",
       "16                   1              1617.0          2.302585           False   \n",
       "19                   0               686.0         -0.693147            True   \n",
       "20                   1              1086.0          2.302585           False   \n",
       "22                   0               415.0          2.772589            True   \n",
       "23                   0              1354.0         -0.693147            True   \n",
       "24                   0                66.0          1.945910           False   \n",
       "25                   1              1372.0         -0.693147            True   \n",
       "\n",
       "    new_under_two end_half_game  EP_start        TD    Opp_TD        FG  \\\n",
       "5           False         False  3.528567  0.589268  0.121716  0.160365   \n",
       "6           False         False  0.388014  0.416812  0.345371  0.090791   \n",
       "9           False         False -1.282102  0.269415  0.388632  0.064616   \n",
       "14          False         False -0.315128  0.338380  0.373575  0.100407   \n",
       "15          False         False  0.719737  0.407483  0.320384  0.145742   \n",
       "16          False         False  3.229273  0.535605  0.153939  0.240652   \n",
       "19          False         False  4.680874  0.661967  0.077000  0.219728   \n",
       "20          False         False -1.627083  0.259294  0.423679  0.055068   \n",
       "22          False         False  4.267842  0.609338  0.091221  0.242404   \n",
       "23          False         False  0.533216  0.400262  0.333928  0.133746   \n",
       "24           True         False  2.570655  0.393659  0.144760  0.340280   \n",
       "25          False         False  0.042356  0.369843  0.343570  0.102974   \n",
       "\n",
       "      Opp_FG  No_Score    Safety  Opp_Safety    EP_end       EPA  time_spent  \n",
       "5   0.075858  0.045998  0.003942    0.002852  3.000000 -0.528567     -1770.0  \n",
       "6   0.127182  0.006720  0.005837    0.007287 -1.194128 -1.582142         0.0  \n",
       "9   0.213911  0.053633  0.004971    0.004822 -7.000000 -5.717898         9.0  \n",
       "14  0.124355  0.052563  0.006131    0.004590 -0.201595  0.113533         0.0  \n",
       "15  0.109606  0.006987  0.005308    0.004490 -0.218460 -0.938197        17.0  \n",
       "16  0.055428  0.006754  0.004295    0.003325 -1.440102 -4.669375         7.0  \n",
       "19  0.025078  0.009042  0.004132    0.003054  7.000000  2.319126        20.0  \n",
       "20  0.151915  0.007262  0.004929    0.097852 -4.092578 -2.465495        14.0  \n",
       "22  0.029389  0.020233  0.004203    0.003212  5.351572  1.083730        15.0  \n",
       "23  0.111860  0.008748  0.006533    0.004922  7.000000  6.466784         0.0  \n",
       "24  0.065158  0.047997  0.004821    0.003324 -1.575804 -4.146460       200.0  \n",
       "25  0.128949  0.009305  0.006772    0.038588 -2.000000 -2.042356         6.0  "
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 57,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "# \"Field Goal Good\",\"Passing Touchdown\",\"Pass Completion\",\"Fumble Return Touchdown\",\"Rushing Touchdown\",\"Interception\",\"Pass Incompletion\",\"Rush\"\n",
    "# ignore: Punt,\"Safety\",\"Sack\"\n",
    "selected_groups = [\"Passing Touchdown\",\"Fumble Return Touchdown\",\"Rushing Touchdown\",\"Pass Completion\",\"Field Goal Good\",\"Pass Interception\",\"Pass Incompletion\",\"Rush\",\"Field Goal Missed\",\"Punt\",\"Safety\",\"Sack\"]\n",
    "composite_df = grouped_plays.apply(lambda x: x.sample(1)).reset_index(drop=True)\n",
    "selection = composite_df[composite_df.play_type.isin(selected_groups)]\n",
    "selection['time_spent'] = selection.time_remaining - selection.new_time_remaining\n",
    "selection[[\"id\",\"offense\",\"defense\",\"home\",\"away\",\"offense_score\",\"defense_score\",\"period\",\"clock.minutes\",\"clock.seconds\",\"time_spent\",\"yard_line\",\"down\",\"distance\",\"yards_gained\",\"play_type\",\"play_text\",\"EPA\"]].to_json(\"./epa-model-test-items.json\", orient=\"records\")\n",
    "selection"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 58,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
      "text/plain": [
       "'{\"id\":{\"5\":400548186102999902,\"6\":401117528101917801,\"9\":400935294104947301,\"14\":332430264111,\"15\":323150062002,\"16\":322520183011,\"19\":400869602104885301,\"20\":400603829101967901,\"22\":400547659102928901,\"23\":400787269101926501,\"24\":400757054102957310,\"25\":400548104101924101},\"offense\":{\"5\":\"Auburn\",\"6\":\"Fresno State\",\"9\":\"Washington State\",\"14\":\"Washington\",\"15\":\"Hawai\\'i\",\"16\":\"Syracuse\",\"19\":\"Kansas\",\"20\":\"Louisville\",\"22\":\"Toledo\",\"23\":\"New Mexico\",\"24\":\"Washington\",\"25\":\"Kent State\"},\"offense_conference\":{\"5\":\"SEC\",\"6\":\"Mountain West\",\"9\":\"Pac-12\",\"14\":\"Pac-12\",\"15\":\"Mountain West\",\"16\":\"Big East\",\"19\":\"Big 12\",\"20\":\"ACC\",\"22\":\"Mid-American\",\"23\":\"Mountain West\",\"24\":\"Pac-12\",\"25\":\"Mid-American\"},\"defense\":{\"5\":\"San Jos\\\\u00e9 State\",\"6\":\"UNLV\",\"9\":\"California\",\"14\":\"Boise State\",\"15\":\"Boise State\",\"16\":\"USC\",\"19\":\"West Virginia\",\"20\":\"Auburn\",\"22\":\"Cincinnati\",\"23\":\"San Jos\\\\u00e9 State\",\"24\":\"Oregon\",\"25\":\"South Alabama\"},\"defense_conference\":{\"5\":\"Mountain West\",\"6\":\"Mountain West\",\"9\":\"Pac-12\",\"14\":\"Mountain West\",\"15\":\"Mountain West\",\"16\":\"Pac-12\",\"19\":\"Big 12\",\"20\":\"SEC\",\"22\":\"American Athletic\",\"23\":\"Mountain West\",\"24\":\"Pac-12\",\"25\":\"Sun Belt\"},\"home\":{\"5\":\"Auburn\",\"6\":\"Fresno State\",\"9\":\"California\",\"14\":\"Washington\",\"15\":\"Hawai\\'i\",\"16\":\"Syracuse\",\"19\":\"West Virginia\",\"20\":\"Auburn\",\"22\":\"Cincinnati\",\"23\":\"San Jos\\\\u00e9 State\",\"24\":\"Washington\",\"25\":\"Kent State\"},\"away\":{\"5\":\"San Jos\\\\u00e9 State\",\"6\":\"UNLV\",\"9\":\"Washington State\",\"14\":\"Boise State\",\"15\":\"Boise State\",\"16\":\"USC\",\"19\":\"Kansas\",\"20\":\"Louisville\",\"22\":\"Toledo\",\"23\":\"New Mexico\",\"24\":\"Oregon\",\"25\":\"South Alabama\"},\"offense_score\":{\"5\":38,\"6\":0,\"9\":3,\"14\":10,\"15\":0,\"16\":0,\"19\":21,\"20\":0,\"22\":0,\"23\":7,\"24\":0,\"25\":0},\"defense_score\":{\"5\":10,\"6\":3,\"9\":37,\"14\":0,\"15\":0,\"16\":0,\"19\":45,\"20\":7,\"22\":34,\"23\":7,\"24\":13,\"25\":2},\"drive_id\":{\"5\":40054818614,\"6\":4011175284,\"9\":40093529424,\"14\":33243026409,\"15\":32315006201,\"16\":32252018302,\"19\":40086960225,\"20\":4006038295,\"22\":4005476599,\"23\":4007872694,\"24\":40075705410,\"25\":4005481045},\"period\":{\"5\":2,\"6\":1,\"9\":4,\"14\":2,\"15\":1,\"16\":1,\"19\":4,\"20\":1,\"22\":2,\"23\":1,\"24\":2,\"25\":1},\"clock.minutes\":{\"5\":0,\"6\":23,\"9\":5,\"14\":8,\"15\":29,\"16\":27,\"19\":11,\"20\":18,\"22\":7,\"23\":22,\"24\":4,\"25\":22},\"clock.seconds\":{\"5\":0,\"6\":21,\"9\":26,\"14\":33,\"15\":55,\"16\":4,\"19\":46,\"20\":20,\"22\":10,\"23\":34,\"24\":26,\"25\":58},\"yard_line\":{\"5\":89,\"6\":71,\"9\":58,\"14\":25,\"15\":21,\"16\":67,\"19\":11,\"20\":76,\"22\":16,\"23\":79,\"24\":82,\"25\":5},\"down\":{\"5\":1,\"6\":4,\"9\":4,\"14\":1,\"15\":1,\"16\":3,\"19\":1,\"20\":4,\"22\":2,\"23\":1,\"24\":3,\"25\":1},\"distance\":{\"5\":10,\"6\":7,\"9\":4,\"14\":10,\"15\":10,\"16\":1,\"19\":10,\"20\":18,\"22\":4,\"23\":10,\"24\":3,\"25\":10},\"yards_gained\":{\"5\":27,\"6\":46,\"9\":26,\"14\":6,\"15\":0,\"16\":2,\"19\":11,\"20\":0,\"22\":13,\"23\":79,\"24\":-4,\"25\":-5},\"play_type\":{\"5\":\"Field Goal Good\",\"6\":\"Field Goal Missed\",\"9\":\"Fumble Return Touchdown\",\"14\":\"Pass Completion\",\"15\":\"Pass Incompletion\",\"16\":\"Pass Interception\",\"19\":\"Passing Touchdown\",\"20\":\"Punt\",\"22\":\"Rush\",\"23\":\"Rushing Touchdown\",\"24\":\"Sack\",\"25\":\"Safety\"},\"play_text\":{\"5\":\"Daniel Carlson 27 yd FG GOOD\",\"6\":\"Cesar Silva 46 yd FG MISSED\",\"9\":\"Gerran Brown 26 Yd Fumble Return (Matt Anderson Kick)\",\"14\":\"Keith Price pass complete to Jaydon Mickens for 6 yards to the Wash 31.\",\"15\":\"Sean Schroeder pass incomplete to Joey Iosefa.\",\"16\":\"Ryan Nassib pass intercepted by Dion Bailey at the USC 32, returned for 2 yards to the USC 34.\",\"19\":\"Steven Sims Jr. 11 Yd pass from Carter Stanley (Matthew Wyman Kick)\",\"20\":\"Joshua Appleby punt for 41 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Aub 35\",\"22\":\"Kareem Hunt run for 13 yds to the Cincy 3 for a 1ST down\",\"23\":\"Teriyon Gipson run for 79 yds for a TD, (Zack Rogers KICK)\",\"24\":\"Jake Browning sacked by Tui Talia for a loss of 4 yards to the Oregn 22\",\"25\":\"Davin Hawkins Safety\"},\"ppa\":{\"5\":null,\"6\":null,\"9\":null,\"14\":0.3333748011,\"15\":-0.5856160976,\"16\":-3.6969411458,\"19\":null,\"20\":null,\"22\":0.993806003,\"23\":6.3305347898,\"24\":-1.1680144782,\"25\":-2.081637952},\"year\":{\"5\":2014,\"6\":2019,\"9\":2017,\"14\":2013,\"15\":2012,\"16\":2012,\"19\":2016,\"20\":2015,\"22\":2014,\"23\":2015,\"24\":2015,\"25\":2014},\"play_id\":{\"5\":400548186102999902,\"6\":401117528101917801,\"9\":400935294104947301,\"14\":332430264111,\"15\":323150062002,\"16\":322520183011,\"19\":400869602104885301,\"20\":400603829101967901,\"22\":400547659102928901,\"23\":400787269101926501,\"24\":400757054102957310,\"25\":400548104101924101},\"home_team\":{\"5\":\"Auburn\",\"6\":\"Fresno State\",\"9\":\"California\",\"14\":\"Washington\",\"15\":\"Hawai\\'i\",\"16\":\"Syracuse\",\"19\":\"West Virginia\",\"20\":\"Auburn\",\"22\":\"Cincinnati\",\"23\":\"San Jos\\\\u00e9 State\",\"24\":\"Washington\",\"25\":\"Kent State\"},\"coef\":{\"5\":0,\"6\":0,\"9\":1,\"14\":0,\"15\":0,\"16\":0,\"19\":1,\"20\":1,\"22\":1,\"23\":1,\"24\":0,\"25\":0},\"adjusted_yardline\":{\"5\":11,\"6\":29,\"9\":58,\"14\":75,\"15\":79,\"16\":33,\"19\":11,\"20\":76,\"22\":16,\"23\":79,\"24\":18,\"25\":95},\"margin\":{\"5\":28,\"6\":-3,\"9\":-34,\"14\":10,\"15\":0,\"16\":0,\"19\":-24,\"20\":-7,\"22\":-34,\"23\":0,\"24\":-13,\"25\":-2},\"time_remaining\":{\"5\":0,\"6\":1401,\"9\":326,\"14\":513,\"15\":1795,\"16\":1624,\"19\":706,\"20\":1100,\"22\":430,\"23\":1354,\"24\":266,\"25\":1378},\"log_distance\":{\"5\":2.302585093,\"6\":1.9459101491,\"9\":1.3862943611,\"14\":2.302585093,\"15\":2.302585093,\"16\":0.0,\"19\":2.302585093,\"20\":2.8903717579,\"22\":1.3862943611,\"23\":2.302585093,\"24\":1.0986122887,\"25\":2.302585093},\"goal_to_go\":{\"5\":true,\"6\":false,\"9\":false,\"14\":false,\"15\":false,\"16\":false,\"19\":false,\"20\":false,\"22\":false,\"23\":false,\"24\":false,\"25\":false},\"under_two\":{\"5\":true,\"6\":false,\"9\":false,\"14\":false,\"15\":false,\"16\":false,\"19\":false,\"20\":false,\"22\":false,\"23\":false,\"24\":false,\"25\":false},\"abs_diff\":{\"5\":28,\"6\":3,\"9\":34,\"14\":10,\"15\":0,\"16\":0,\"19\":24,\"20\":7,\"22\":34,\"23\":0,\"24\":13,\"25\":2},\"ScoreDiff_W\":{\"5\":0.6626506024,\"6\":0.9638554217,\"9\":0.5903614458,\"14\":0.8795180723,\"15\":1.0,\"16\":1.0,\"19\":0.7108433735,\"20\":0.9156626506,\"22\":0.5903614458,\"23\":1.0,\"24\":0.843373494,\"25\":0.9759036145},\"game_id\":{\"5\":400548186,\"6\":401117528,\"9\":400935294,\"14\":332430264,\"15\":323150062,\"16\":322520183,\"19\":400869602,\"20\":400603829,\"22\":400547659,\"23\":400787269,\"24\":400757054,\"25\":400548104},\"DSH\":{\"5\":40054818614,\"6\":4011175286,\"9\":40093529424,\"14\":33243026410,\"15\":32315006202,\"16\":32252018307,\"19\":40086960225,\"20\":4006038299,\"22\":4005476599,\"23\":4007872694,\"24\":40075705410,\"25\":4005481045},\"drive_point\":{\"5\":0,\"6\":0,\"9\":-7,\"14\":0,\"15\":0,\"16\":0,\"19\":7,\"20\":0,\"22\":7,\"23\":7,\"24\":3,\"25\":-2},\"drive_result\":{\"5\":\"END OF HALF\",\"6\":\"MISSED FG\",\"9\":\"FUMBLE RETURN TD\",\"14\":\"PUNT\",\"15\":\"PUNT\",\"16\":\"INT\",\"19\":\"TD\",\"20\":\"PUNT\",\"22\":\"TD\",\"23\":\"TD\",\"24\":\"FG\",\"25\":\"SF\"},\"next_drive_point\":{\"5\":0,\"6\":7,\"9\":-7,\"14\":-3,\"15\":-7,\"16\":-7,\"19\":7,\"20\":7,\"22\":7,\"23\":7,\"24\":3,\"25\":-2},\"Drive_Score_Dist_W\":{\"5\":1.0,\"6\":0.9999999997,\"9\":1.0,\"14\":0.9999999999,\"15\":0.9999999999,\"16\":0.9999999993,\"19\":1.0,\"20\":0.9999999994,\"22\":1.0,\"23\":1.0,\"24\":1.0,\"25\":1.0},\"Total_W\":{\"5\":1.6626506024,\"6\":1.9638554214,\"9\":1.5903614458,\"14\":1.8795180721,\"15\":1.9999999999,\"16\":1.9999999993,\"19\":1.7108433735,\"20\":1.91566265,\"22\":1.5903614458,\"23\":2.0,\"24\":1.843373494,\"25\":1.9759036145},\"Total_W_Scaled\":{\"5\":0.7454545455,\"6\":0.9727272725,\"9\":0.6909090909,\"14\":0.909090909,\"15\":0.9999999999,\"16\":0.9999999994,\"19\":0.7818181818,\"20\":0.9363636359,\"22\":0.6909090909,\"23\":1.0,\"24\":0.8818181818,\"25\":0.9818181818},\"off_full_name\":{\"5\":\"Auburn\",\"6\":\"Fresno State\",\"9\":\"Washington State\",\"14\":\"Washington\",\"15\":\"Hawai\\'i\",\"16\":\"Syracuse\",\"19\":\"Kansas\",\"20\":\"Louisville\",\"22\":\"Toledo\",\"23\":\"New Mexico\",\"24\":\"Washington\",\"25\":\"Kent State\"},\"off_abbr\":{\"5\":\"Aub\",\"6\":\"FrsSt\",\"9\":\"WshSt\",\"14\":\"Wash\",\"15\":\"Hawa\",\"16\":\"Syrac\",\"19\":\"Kans\",\"20\":\"Lvile\",\"22\":\"Toled\",\"23\":\"NMex\",\"24\":\"Wash\",\"25\":\"KntSt\"},\"def_full_name\":{\"5\":\"San Jos\\\\u00e9 State\",\"6\":\"UNLV\",\"9\":\"California\",\"14\":\"Boise State\",\"15\":\"Boise State\",\"16\":\"USC\",\"19\":\"West Virginia\",\"20\":\"Auburn\",\"22\":\"Cincinnati\",\"23\":\"San Jos\\\\u00e9 State\",\"24\":\"Oregon\",\"25\":\"South Alabama\"},\"def_abbr\":{\"5\":\"SJSt\",\"6\":\"UNLV\",\"9\":\"Cal\",\"14\":\"BoiSt\",\"15\":\"BoiSt\",\"16\":\"USC\",\"19\":\"WVirg\",\"20\":\"Aub\",\"22\":\"Cincy\",\"23\":\"SJSt\",\"24\":\"Oregn\",\"25\":\"SAlab\"},\"half\":{\"5\":1,\"6\":1,\"9\":2,\"14\":1,\"15\":1,\"16\":1,\"19\":2,\"20\":1,\"22\":1,\"23\":1,\"24\":1,\"25\":1},\"new_yardline\":{\"5\":99.0,\"6\":70.0,\"9\":99.0,\"14\":69.0,\"15\":79.0,\"16\":69.0,\"19\":99.0,\"20\":24.0,\"22\":3.0,\"23\":99.0,\"24\":22.0,\"25\":99.0},\"new_down\":{\"5\":1,\"6\":1,\"9\":1,\"14\":2,\"15\":2,\"16\":1,\"19\":1,\"20\":1,\"22\":1,\"23\":1,\"24\":4,\"25\":1},\"new_distance\":{\"5\":0,\"6\":10,\"9\":10,\"14\":4,\"15\":10,\"16\":10,\"19\":0,\"20\":10,\"22\":16,\"23\":0,\"24\":7,\"25\":0},\"turnover_end\":{\"5\":true,\"6\":true,\"9\":true,\"14\":false,\"15\":false,\"16\":true,\"19\":true,\"20\":true,\"22\":false,\"23\":true,\"24\":false,\"25\":true},\"next_offense\":{\"5\":\"San Jos\\\\u00e9 State\",\"6\":\"UNLV\",\"9\":\"Washington State\",\"14\":\"Washington\",\"15\":\"Hawai\\'i\",\"16\":\"USC\",\"19\":\"West Virginia\",\"20\":\"Auburn\",\"22\":\"Toledo\",\"23\":\"San Jos\\\\u00e9 State\",\"24\":\"Washington\",\"25\":\"South Alabama\"},\"turnover_indicator\":{\"5\":0,\"6\":1,\"9\":1,\"14\":0,\"15\":0,\"16\":1,\"19\":0,\"20\":1,\"22\":0,\"23\":0,\"24\":0,\"25\":1},\"new_time_remaining\":{\"5\":1770.0,\"6\":1401.0,\"9\":317.0,\"14\":513.0,\"15\":1778.0,\"16\":1617.0,\"19\":686.0,\"20\":1086.0,\"22\":415.0,\"23\":1354.0,\"24\":66.0,\"25\":1372.0},\"new_log_distance\":{\"5\":-0.6931471806,\"6\":2.302585093,\"9\":2.302585093,\"14\":1.3862943611,\"15\":2.302585093,\"16\":2.302585093,\"19\":-0.6931471806,\"20\":2.302585093,\"22\":2.7725887222,\"23\":-0.6931471806,\"24\":1.9459101491,\"25\":-0.6931471806},\"new_goal_to_go\":{\"5\":true,\"6\":false,\"9\":true,\"14\":false,\"15\":false,\"16\":false,\"19\":true,\"20\":false,\"22\":true,\"23\":true,\"24\":false,\"25\":true},\"new_under_two\":{\"5\":false,\"6\":false,\"9\":false,\"14\":false,\"15\":false,\"16\":false,\"19\":false,\"20\":false,\"22\":false,\"23\":false,\"24\":true,\"25\":false},\"end_half_game\":{\"5\":false,\"6\":false,\"9\":false,\"14\":false,\"15\":false,\"16\":false,\"19\":false,\"20\":false,\"22\":false,\"23\":false,\"24\":false,\"25\":false},\"EP_start\":{\"5\":3.5285673141,\"6\":0.3880140185,\"9\":-1.2821017504,\"14\":-0.315128237,\"15\":0.7197369933,\"16\":3.2292730808,\"19\":4.6808743477,\"20\":-1.6270831823,\"22\":4.2678418159,\"23\":0.5332164168,\"24\":2.5706553459,\"25\":0.0423563644},\"TD\":{\"5\":0.5892683864,\"6\":0.4168121517,\"9\":0.2694152892,\"14\":0.3383795023,\"15\":0.4074829519,\"16\":0.5356050134,\"19\":0.6619668603,\"20\":0.2592942119,\"22\":0.6093375683,\"23\":0.400262326,\"24\":0.3936593831,\"25\":0.3698429763},\"Opp_TD\":{\"5\":0.1217160076,\"6\":0.3453710377,\"9\":0.3886315823,\"14\":0.3735746443,\"15\":0.3203837276,\"16\":0.1539392322,\"19\":0.0770002306,\"20\":0.4236791432,\"22\":0.0912210271,\"23\":0.3339282274,\"24\":0.1447599232,\"25\":0.3435697258},\"FG\":{\"5\":0.1603653431,\"6\":0.0907913819,\"9\":0.06461557,\"14\":0.1004072875,\"15\":0.1457419246,\"16\":0.2406523824,\"19\":0.2197282463,\"20\":0.0550680533,\"22\":0.2424040735,\"23\":0.1337457001,\"24\":0.3402799666,\"25\":0.1029736176},\"Opp_FG\":{\"5\":0.0758584142,\"6\":0.1271824539,\"9\":0.2139110118,\"14\":0.1243552342,\"15\":0.1096061245,\"16\":0.0554281622,\"19\":0.0250775963,\"20\":0.1519153714,\"22\":0.0293887705,\"23\":0.11186032,\"24\":0.0651583746,\"25\":0.128948614},\"No_Score\":{\"5\":0.0459977351,\"6\":0.0067197038,\"9\":0.0536332428,\"14\":0.052562546,\"15\":0.0069871484,\"16\":0.0067542871,\"19\":0.0090418635,\"20\":0.0072623864,\"22\":0.0202334728,\"23\":0.0087480573,\"24\":0.0479974262,\"25\":0.0093047339},\"Safety\":{\"5\":0.0039420077,\"6\":0.0058365068,\"9\":0.0049713203,\"14\":0.0061307498,\"15\":0.0053077643,\"16\":0.0042954446,\"19\":0.0041315123,\"20\":0.0049287486,\"22\":0.004202723,\"23\":0.0065331212,\"24\":0.0048210309,\"25\":0.0067723175},\"Opp_Safety\":{\"5\":0.0028520767,\"6\":0.007286754,\"9\":0.0048220027,\"14\":0.0045900531,\"15\":0.0044903602,\"16\":0.0033254786,\"19\":0.0030537001,\"20\":0.097852096,\"22\":0.0032123982,\"23\":0.0049222843,\"24\":0.0033239343,\"25\":0.0385880284},\"EP_end\":{\"5\":3.0,\"6\":-1.1941281557,\"9\":-7.0,\"14\":-0.2015950233,\"15\":-0.2184602618,\"16\":-1.440102458,\"19\":7.0,\"20\":-4.0925784111,\"22\":5.3515720367,\"23\":7.0,\"24\":-1.5758039951,\"25\":-2.0},\"EPA\":{\"5\":-0.5285673141,\"6\":-1.5821421146,\"9\":-5.7178983688,\"14\":0.1135332137,\"15\":-0.9381972551,\"16\":-4.6693754196,\"19\":2.3191256523,\"20\":-2.4654951096,\"22\":1.0837302208,\"23\":6.4667835236,\"24\":-4.1464595795,\"25\":-2.0423562527},\"time_spent\":{\"5\":-1770.0,\"6\":0.0,\"9\":9.0,\"14\":0.0,\"15\":17.0,\"16\":7.0,\"19\":20.0,\"20\":14.0,\"22\":15.0,\"23\":0.0,\"24\":200.0,\"25\":6.0}}'"
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 58,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "selection.to_json()"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 59,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
      "text/plain": [
       "'Sean Schroeder pass incomplete to Joey Iosefa.'"
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 59,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "composite_df.iloc[15].play_text"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 60,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
      "text/html": [
       "<div>\n",
       "<style scoped>\n",
       "    .dataframe tbody tr th:only-of-type {\n",
       "        vertical-align: middle;\n",
       "    }\n",
       "\n",
       "    .dataframe tbody tr th {\n",
       "        vertical-align: top;\n",
       "    }\n",
       "\n",
       "    .dataframe thead th {\n",
       "        text-align: right;\n",
       "    }\n",
       "</style>\n",
       "<table border=\"1\" class=\"dataframe\">\n",
       "  <thead>\n",
       "    <tr style=\"text-align: right;\">\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th>id</th>\n",
       "      <th>offense</th>\n",
       "      <th>offense_conference</th>\n",
       "      <th>defense</th>\n",
       "      <th>defense_conference</th>\n",
       "      <th>home</th>\n",
       "      <th>away</th>\n",
       "      <th>offense_score</th>\n",
       "      <th>defense_score</th>\n",
       "      <th>drive_id</th>\n",
       "      <th>period</th>\n",
       "      <th>clock.minutes</th>\n",
       "      <th>clock.seconds</th>\n",
       "      <th>yard_line</th>\n",
       "      <th>down</th>\n",
       "      <th>distance</th>\n",
       "      <th>yards_gained</th>\n",
       "      <th>play_type</th>\n",
       "      <th>play_text</th>\n",
       "      <th>ppa</th>\n",
       "      <th>year</th>\n",
       "      <th>play_id</th>\n",
       "      <th>home_team</th>\n",
       "      <th>coef</th>\n",
       "      <th>adjusted_yardline</th>\n",
       "      <th>margin</th>\n",
       "      <th>time_remaining</th>\n",
       "      <th>log_distance</th>\n",
       "      <th>goal_to_go</th>\n",
       "      <th>under_two</th>\n",
       "      <th>abs_diff</th>\n",
       "      <th>ScoreDiff_W</th>\n",
       "      <th>game_id</th>\n",
       "      <th>DSH</th>\n",
       "      <th>drive_point</th>\n",
       "      <th>drive_result</th>\n",
       "      <th>next_drive_point</th>\n",
       "      <th>Drive_Score_Dist_W</th>\n",
       "      <th>Total_W</th>\n",
       "      <th>Total_W_Scaled</th>\n",
       "      <th>off_full_name</th>\n",
       "      <th>off_abbr</th>\n",
       "      <th>def_full_name</th>\n",
       "      <th>def_abbr</th>\n",
       "      <th>half</th>\n",
       "      <th>new_yardline</th>\n",
       "      <th>new_down</th>\n",
       "      <th>new_distance</th>\n",
       "      <th>turnover_end</th>\n",
       "      <th>next_offense</th>\n",
       "      <th>turnover_indicator</th>\n",
       "      <th>new_time_remaining</th>\n",
       "      <th>new_log_distance</th>\n",
       "      <th>new_goal_to_go</th>\n",
       "      <th>new_under_two</th>\n",
       "      <th>end_half_game</th>\n",
       "      <th>EP_start</th>\n",
       "      <th>TD</th>\n",
       "      <th>Opp_TD</th>\n",
       "      <th>FG</th>\n",
       "      <th>Opp_FG</th>\n",
       "      <th>No_Score</th>\n",
       "      <th>Safety</th>\n",
       "      <th>Opp_Safety</th>\n",
       "      <th>EP_end</th>\n",
       "      <th>EPA</th>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "  </thead>\n",
       "  <tbody>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>657094</th>\n",
       "      <td>322430041002</td>\n",
       "      <td>UMass</td>\n",
       "      <td>Mid-American</td>\n",
       "      <td>Connecticut</td>\n",
       "      <td>Big East</td>\n",
       "      <td>Connecticut</td>\n",
       "      <td>UMass</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>32243004101</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>29</td>\n",
       "      <td>45</td>\n",
       "      <td>80</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>10</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>Rush</td>\n",
       "      <td>Chris Burns rush for 1 yard to the UMass 21.</td>\n",
       "      <td>-0.468828</td>\n",
       "      <td>2012</td>\n",
       "      <td>322430041002</td>\n",
       "      <td>Connecticut</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>80</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>1785</td>\n",
       "      <td>2.302585</td>\n",
       "      <td>False</td>\n",
       "      <td>False</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>1.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>322430041</td>\n",
       "      <td>32243004102</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>PUNT</td>\n",
       "      <td>-7</td>\n",
       "      <td>1.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>2.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>1.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>UMass</td>\n",
       "      <td>UMass</td>\n",
       "      <td>Connecticut</td>\n",
       "      <td>UConn</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>79.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>2</td>\n",
       "      <td>9</td>\n",
       "      <td>False</td>\n",
       "      <td>UMass</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>1760.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>2.197225</td>\n",
       "      <td>False</td>\n",
       "      <td>False</td>\n",
       "      <td>False</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.699295</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.405101</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.317600</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.142792</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.114353</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.010309</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.005290</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.004555</td>\n",
       "      <td>-0.237787</td>\n",
       "      <td>-0.937081</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>657095</th>\n",
       "      <td>322430041003</td>\n",
       "      <td>UMass</td>\n",
       "      <td>Mid-American</td>\n",
       "      <td>Connecticut</td>\n",
       "      <td>Big East</td>\n",
       "      <td>Connecticut</td>\n",
       "      <td>UMass</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>32243004101</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>29</td>\n",
       "      <td>20</td>\n",
       "      <td>79</td>\n",
       "      <td>2</td>\n",
       "      <td>9</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>Pass Incompletion</td>\n",
       "      <td>Mike Wegzyn pass incomplete.</td>\n",
       "      <td>-0.310093</td>\n",
       "      <td>2012</td>\n",
       "      <td>322430041003</td>\n",
       "      <td>Connecticut</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>79</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>1760</td>\n",
       "      <td>2.197225</td>\n",
       "      <td>False</td>\n",
       "      <td>False</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>1.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>322430041</td>\n",
       "      <td>32243004102</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>PUNT</td>\n",
       "      <td>-7</td>\n",
       "      <td>1.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>2.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>1.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>UMass</td>\n",
       "      <td>UMass</td>\n",
       "      <td>Connecticut</td>\n",
       "      <td>UConn</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>79.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>3</td>\n",
       "      <td>9</td>\n",
       "      <td>False</td>\n",
       "      <td>UMass</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>1750.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>2.197225</td>\n",
       "      <td>False</td>\n",
       "      <td>False</td>\n",
       "      <td>False</td>\n",
       "      <td>-0.237787</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.342944</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.377006</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.129940</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.130254</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.009771</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.005439</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.004647</td>\n",
       "      <td>-1.298674</td>\n",
       "      <td>-1.060887</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>657096</th>\n",
       "      <td>322430041005</td>\n",
       "      <td>UMass</td>\n",
       "      <td>Mid-American</td>\n",
       "      <td>Connecticut</td>\n",
       "      <td>Big East</td>\n",
       "      <td>Connecticut</td>\n",
       "      <td>UMass</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>32243004101</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>29</td>\n",
       "      <td>10</td>\n",
       "      <td>79</td>\n",
       "      <td>3</td>\n",
       "      <td>9</td>\n",
       "      <td>5</td>\n",
       "      <td>Pass Completion</td>\n",
       "      <td>Mike Wegzyn pass complete to Marken Michel for...</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.019784</td>\n",
       "      <td>2012</td>\n",
       "      <td>322430041005</td>\n",
       "      <td>Connecticut</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>79</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>1750</td>\n",
       "      <td>2.197225</td>\n",
       "      <td>False</td>\n",
       "      <td>False</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>1.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>322430041</td>\n",
       "      <td>32243004102</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>PUNT</td>\n",
       "      <td>-7</td>\n",
       "      <td>1.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>2.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>1.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>UMass</td>\n",
       "      <td>UMass</td>\n",
       "      <td>Connecticut</td>\n",
       "      <td>UConn</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>74.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>4</td>\n",
       "      <td>4</td>\n",
       "      <td>False</td>\n",
       "      <td>UMass</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>1708.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>1.386294</td>\n",
       "      <td>False</td>\n",
       "      <td>False</td>\n",
       "      <td>False</td>\n",
       "      <td>-1.298674</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.280342</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.448131</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.104936</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.146885</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.009450</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.005552</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.004703</td>\n",
       "      <td>-0.222502</td>\n",
       "      <td>1.076171</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>657097</th>\n",
       "      <td>322430041006</td>\n",
       "      <td>UMass</td>\n",
       "      <td>Mid-American</td>\n",
       "      <td>Connecticut</td>\n",
       "      <td>Big East</td>\n",
       "      <td>Connecticut</td>\n",
       "      <td>UMass</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>32243004101</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>28</td>\n",
       "      <td>28</td>\n",
       "      <td>74</td>\n",
       "      <td>4</td>\n",
       "      <td>4</td>\n",
       "      <td>-2</td>\n",
       "      <td>Punt</td>\n",
       "      <td>Jeff Strait punt for 47 yards, returned by Nic...</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>2012</td>\n",
       "      <td>322430041006</td>\n",
       "      <td>Connecticut</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>74</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>1708</td>\n",
       "      <td>1.386294</td>\n",
       "      <td>False</td>\n",
       "      <td>False</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>1.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>322430041</td>\n",
       "      <td>32243004102</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>PUNT</td>\n",
       "      <td>-7</td>\n",
       "      <td>1.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>2.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>1.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>UMass</td>\n",
       "      <td>UMass</td>\n",
       "      <td>Connecticut</td>\n",
       "      <td>UConn</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>24.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>10</td>\n",
       "      <td>True</td>\n",
       "      <td>Connecticut</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>1700.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>2.302585</td>\n",
       "      <td>False</td>\n",
       "      <td>False</td>\n",
       "      <td>False</td>\n",
       "      <td>-0.222502</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.368683</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.369151</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.077220</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.114588</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.006726</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.005036</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.058596</td>\n",
       "      <td>-4.141266</td>\n",
       "      <td>-3.918764</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>570576</th>\n",
       "      <td>322430041008</td>\n",
       "      <td>Connecticut</td>\n",
       "      <td>Big East</td>\n",
       "      <td>UMass</td>\n",
       "      <td>Mid-American</td>\n",
       "      <td>Connecticut</td>\n",
       "      <td>UMass</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>32243004102</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>28</td>\n",
       "      <td>20</td>\n",
       "      <td>25</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>10</td>\n",
       "      <td>5</td>\n",
       "      <td>Rush</td>\n",
       "      <td>Lyle McCombs rush for 5 yards to the UConn 30.</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.094545</td>\n",
       "      <td>2012</td>\n",
       "      <td>322430041008</td>\n",
       "      <td>Connecticut</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>75</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>1700</td>\n",
       "      <td>2.302585</td>\n",
       "      <td>False</td>\n",
       "      <td>False</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>1.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>322430041</td>\n",
       "      <td>32243004102</td>\n",
       "      <td>7</td>\n",
       "      <td>RUSHING TD</td>\n",
       "      <td>7</td>\n",
       "      <td>1.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>2.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>1.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>Connecticut</td>\n",
       "      <td>UConn</td>\n",
       "      <td>UMass</td>\n",
       "      <td>UMass</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>70.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>2</td>\n",
       "      <td>5</td>\n",
       "      <td>False</td>\n",
       "      <td>Connecticut</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>1666.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>1.609438</td>\n",
       "      <td>False</td>\n",
       "      <td>False</td>\n",
       "      <td>False</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.747652</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.407840</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.317276</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.147482</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.109608</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.008852</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.004492</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.004449</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.513041</td>\n",
       "      <td>-0.234610</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "  </tbody>\n",
       "</table>\n",
       "</div>"
      ],
      "text/plain": [
       "                  id      offense offense_conference      defense  \\\n",
       "657094  322430041002        UMass       Mid-American  Connecticut   \n",
       "657095  322430041003        UMass       Mid-American  Connecticut   \n",
       "657096  322430041005        UMass       Mid-American  Connecticut   \n",
       "657097  322430041006        UMass       Mid-American  Connecticut   \n",
       "570576  322430041008  Connecticut           Big East        UMass   \n",
       "\n",
       "       defense_conference         home   away  offense_score  defense_score  \\\n",
       "657094           Big East  Connecticut  UMass              0              0   \n",
       "657095           Big East  Connecticut  UMass              0              0   \n",
       "657096           Big East  Connecticut  UMass              0              0   \n",
       "657097           Big East  Connecticut  UMass              0              0   \n",
       "570576       Mid-American  Connecticut  UMass              0              0   \n",
       "\n",
       "           drive_id  period  clock.minutes  clock.seconds  yard_line  down  \\\n",
       "657094  32243004101       1             29             45         80     1   \n",
       "657095  32243004101       1             29             20         79     2   \n",
       "657096  32243004101       1             29             10         79     3   \n",
       "657097  32243004101       1             28             28         74     4   \n",
       "570576  32243004102       1             28             20         25     1   \n",
       "\n",
       "        distance  yards_gained          play_type  \\\n",
       "657094        10             1               Rush   \n",
       "657095         9             0  Pass Incompletion   \n",
       "657096         9             5    Pass Completion   \n",
       "657097         4            -2               Punt   \n",
       "570576        10             5               Rush   \n",
       "\n",
       "                                                play_text       ppa  year  \\\n",
       "657094       Chris Burns rush for 1 yard to the UMass 21. -0.468828  2012   \n",
       "657095                       Mike Wegzyn pass incomplete. -0.310093  2012   \n",
       "657096  Mike Wegzyn pass complete to Marken Michel for...  0.019784  2012   \n",
       "657097  Jeff Strait punt for 47 yards, returned by Nic...       NaN  2012   \n",
       "570576     Lyle McCombs rush for 5 yards to the UConn 30.  0.094545  2012   \n",
       "\n",
       "             play_id    home_team  coef  adjusted_yardline  margin  \\\n",
       "657094  322430041002  Connecticut     1                 80       0   \n",
       "657095  322430041003  Connecticut     1                 79       0   \n",
       "657096  322430041005  Connecticut     1                 79       0   \n",
       "657097  322430041006  Connecticut     1                 74       0   \n",
       "570576  322430041008  Connecticut     0                 75       0   \n",
       "\n",
       "        time_remaining  log_distance  goal_to_go  under_two  abs_diff  \\\n",
       "657094            1785      2.302585       False      False         0   \n",
       "657095            1760      2.197225       False      False         0   \n",
       "657096            1750      2.197225       False      False         0   \n",
       "657097            1708      1.386294       False      False         0   \n",
       "570576            1700      2.302585       False      False         0   \n",
       "\n",
       "        ScoreDiff_W    game_id          DSH  drive_point drive_result  \\\n",
       "657094          1.0  322430041  32243004102            0         PUNT   \n",
       "657095          1.0  322430041  32243004102            0         PUNT   \n",
       "657096          1.0  322430041  32243004102            0         PUNT   \n",
       "657097          1.0  322430041  32243004102            0         PUNT   \n",
       "570576          1.0  322430041  32243004102            7   RUSHING TD   \n",
       "\n",
       "        next_drive_point  Drive_Score_Dist_W  Total_W  Total_W_Scaled  \\\n",
       "657094                -7                 1.0      2.0             1.0   \n",
       "657095                -7                 1.0      2.0             1.0   \n",
       "657096                -7                 1.0      2.0             1.0   \n",
       "657097                -7                 1.0      2.0             1.0   \n",
       "570576                 7                 1.0      2.0             1.0   \n",
       "\n",
       "       off_full_name off_abbr def_full_name def_abbr  half  new_yardline  \\\n",
       "657094         UMass    UMass   Connecticut    UConn     1          79.0   \n",
       "657095         UMass    UMass   Connecticut    UConn     1          79.0   \n",
       "657096         UMass    UMass   Connecticut    UConn     1          74.0   \n",
       "657097         UMass    UMass   Connecticut    UConn     1          24.0   \n",
       "570576   Connecticut    UConn         UMass    UMass     1          70.0   \n",
       "\n",
       "        new_down  new_distance  turnover_end next_offense  turnover_indicator  \\\n",
       "657094         2             9         False        UMass                   0   \n",
       "657095         3             9         False        UMass                   0   \n",
       "657096         4             4         False        UMass                   0   \n",
       "657097         1            10          True  Connecticut                   1   \n",
       "570576         2             5         False  Connecticut                   0   \n",
       "\n",
       "        new_time_remaining  new_log_distance  new_goal_to_go  new_under_two  \\\n",
       "657094              1760.0          2.197225           False          False   \n",
       "657095              1750.0          2.197225           False          False   \n",
       "657096              1708.0          1.386294           False          False   \n",
       "657097              1700.0          2.302585           False          False   \n",
       "570576              1666.0          1.609438           False          False   \n",
       "\n",
       "       end_half_game  EP_start        TD    Opp_TD        FG    Opp_FG  \\\n",
       "657094         False  0.699295  0.405101  0.317600  0.142792  0.114353   \n",
       "657095         False -0.237787  0.342944  0.377006  0.129940  0.130254   \n",
       "657096         False -1.298674  0.280342  0.448131  0.104936  0.146885   \n",
       "657097         False -0.222502  0.368683  0.369151  0.077220  0.114588   \n",
       "570576         False  0.747652  0.407840  0.317276  0.147482  0.109608   \n",
       "\n",
       "        No_Score    Safety  Opp_Safety    EP_end       EPA  \n",
       "657094  0.010309  0.005290    0.004555 -0.237787 -0.937081  \n",
       "657095  0.009771  0.005439    0.004647 -1.298674 -1.060887  \n",
       "657096  0.009450  0.005552    0.004703 -0.222502  1.076171  \n",
       "657097  0.006726  0.005036    0.058596 -4.141266 -3.918764  \n",
       "570576  0.008852  0.004492    0.004449  0.513041 -0.234610  "
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 60,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "for c in range(0, 7):\n",
    "    regular_play[class_to_name_mapping[c]] = EP_predict_start[:,c]\n",
    "regular_play.head()"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 61,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
      "text/html": [
       "<div>\n",
       "<style scoped>\n",
       "    .dataframe tbody tr th:only-of-type {\n",
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       "\n",
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       "    }\n",
       "\n",
       "    .dataframe thead th {\n",
       "        text-align: right;\n",
       "    }\n",
       "</style>\n",
       "<table border=\"1\" class=\"dataframe\">\n",
       "  <thead>\n",
       "    <tr style=\"text-align: right;\">\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th>year</th>\n",
       "      <th>next_score</th>\n",
       "      <th>next_score_type</th>\n",
       "      <th>pred_prob</th>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "  </thead>\n",
       "  <tbody>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>0</th>\n",
       "      <td>2012</td>\n",
       "      <td>Opp_TD</td>\n",
       "      <td>TD</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.405101</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>1</th>\n",
       "      <td>2012</td>\n",
       "      <td>Opp_TD</td>\n",
       "      <td>TD</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.342944</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>2</th>\n",
       "      <td>2012</td>\n",
       "      <td>Opp_TD</td>\n",
       "      <td>TD</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.280342</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>3</th>\n",
       "      <td>2012</td>\n",
       "      <td>Opp_TD</td>\n",
       "      <td>TD</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.368683</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>4</th>\n",
       "      <td>2012</td>\n",
       "      <td>TD</td>\n",
       "      <td>TD</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.407840</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>...</th>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>6017076</th>\n",
       "      <td>2019</td>\n",
       "      <td>TD</td>\n",
       "      <td>Opp_Safety</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.003310</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>6017077</th>\n",
       "      <td>2019</td>\n",
       "      <td>TD</td>\n",
       "      <td>Opp_Safety</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.003319</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>6017078</th>\n",
       "      <td>2019</td>\n",
       "      <td>No_Score</td>\n",
       "      <td>Opp_Safety</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.003706</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>6017079</th>\n",
       "      <td>2019</td>\n",
       "      <td>No_Score</td>\n",
       "      <td>Opp_Safety</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.003577</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>6017080</th>\n",
       "      <td>2019</td>\n",
       "      <td>No_Score</td>\n",
       "      <td>Opp_Safety</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.003494</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "  </tbody>\n",
       "</table>\n",
       "<p>6017081 rows × 4 columns</p>\n",
       "</div>"
      ],
      "text/plain": [
       "         year next_score next_score_type  pred_prob\n",
       "0        2012     Opp_TD              TD   0.405101\n",
       "1        2012     Opp_TD              TD   0.342944\n",
       "2        2012     Opp_TD              TD   0.280342\n",
       "3        2012     Opp_TD              TD   0.368683\n",
       "4        2012         TD              TD   0.407840\n",
       "...       ...        ...             ...        ...\n",
       "6017076  2019         TD      Opp_Safety   0.003310\n",
       "6017077  2019         TD      Opp_Safety   0.003319\n",
       "6017078  2019   No_Score      Opp_Safety   0.003706\n",
       "6017079  2019   No_Score      Opp_Safety   0.003577\n",
       "6017080  2019   No_Score      Opp_Safety   0.003494\n",
       "\n",
       "[6017081 rows x 4 columns]"
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 61,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "score_to_name_mapping = {\n",
    "    7: \"TD\",\n",
    "    -7: \"Opp_TD\",\n",
    "    3: \"FG\",\n",
    "    -3: \"Opp_FG\",\n",
    "    0: \"No_Score\",\n",
    "    2: \"Safety\",\n",
    "    -2: \"Opp_Safety\"\n",
    "}\n",
    "\n",
    "next_score_types = [\"TD\",\"Opp_TD\",\"FG\",\"Opp_FG\",\"No_Score\", \"Safety\",\"Opp_Safety\"]\n",
    "regular_play['next_score'] = regular_play.next_drive_point.apply(lambda x: score_to_name_mapping[x])\n",
    "gathered = regular_play.melt(id_vars=[\"year\",\"next_score\"],value_vars=next_score_types, var_name=\"next_score_type\",value_name=\"pred_prob\")\n",
    "gathered"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 62,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
      "text/html": [
       "<div>\n",
       "<style scoped>\n",
       "    .dataframe tbody tr th:only-of-type {\n",
       "        vertical-align: middle;\n",
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       "\n",
       "    .dataframe tbody tr th {\n",
       "        vertical-align: top;\n",
       "    }\n",
       "\n",
       "    .dataframe thead th {\n",
       "        text-align: right;\n",
       "    }\n",
       "</style>\n",
       "<table border=\"1\" class=\"dataframe\">\n",
       "  <thead>\n",
       "    <tr style=\"text-align: right;\">\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th>year</th>\n",
       "      <th>next_score</th>\n",
       "      <th>next_score_type</th>\n",
       "      <th>pred_prob</th>\n",
       "      <th>bin_pred_prob</th>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "  </thead>\n",
       "  <tbody>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>0</th>\n",
       "      <td>2012</td>\n",
       "      <td>Opp_TD</td>\n",
       "      <td>TD</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.405101</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.40</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>1</th>\n",
       "      <td>2012</td>\n",
       "      <td>Opp_TD</td>\n",
       "      <td>TD</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.342944</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.35</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>2</th>\n",
       "      <td>2012</td>\n",
       "      <td>Opp_TD</td>\n",
       "      <td>TD</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.280342</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.30</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>3</th>\n",
       "      <td>2012</td>\n",
       "      <td>Opp_TD</td>\n",
       "      <td>TD</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.368683</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.35</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>4</th>\n",
       "      <td>2012</td>\n",
       "      <td>TD</td>\n",
       "      <td>TD</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.407840</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.40</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>...</th>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>6017076</th>\n",
       "      <td>2019</td>\n",
       "      <td>TD</td>\n",
       "      <td>Opp_Safety</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.003310</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.00</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>6017077</th>\n",
       "      <td>2019</td>\n",
       "      <td>TD</td>\n",
       "      <td>Opp_Safety</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.003319</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.00</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>6017078</th>\n",
       "      <td>2019</td>\n",
       "      <td>No_Score</td>\n",
       "      <td>Opp_Safety</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.003706</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.00</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>6017079</th>\n",
       "      <td>2019</td>\n",
       "      <td>No_Score</td>\n",
       "      <td>Opp_Safety</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.003577</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.00</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>6017080</th>\n",
       "      <td>2019</td>\n",
       "      <td>No_Score</td>\n",
       "      <td>Opp_Safety</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.003494</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.00</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "  </tbody>\n",
       "</table>\n",
       "<p>6017081 rows × 5 columns</p>\n",
       "</div>"
      ],
      "text/plain": [
       "         year next_score next_score_type  pred_prob  bin_pred_prob\n",
       "0        2012     Opp_TD              TD   0.405101           0.40\n",
       "1        2012     Opp_TD              TD   0.342944           0.35\n",
       "2        2012     Opp_TD              TD   0.280342           0.30\n",
       "3        2012     Opp_TD              TD   0.368683           0.35\n",
       "4        2012         TD              TD   0.407840           0.40\n",
       "...       ...        ...             ...        ...            ...\n",
       "6017076  2019         TD      Opp_Safety   0.003310           0.00\n",
       "6017077  2019         TD      Opp_Safety   0.003319           0.00\n",
       "6017078  2019   No_Score      Opp_Safety   0.003706           0.00\n",
       "6017079  2019   No_Score      Opp_Safety   0.003577           0.00\n",
       "6017080  2019   No_Score      Opp_Safety   0.003494           0.00\n",
       "\n",
       "[6017081 rows x 5 columns]"
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 62,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "gathered['bin_pred_prob'] = (round(gathered.pred_prob / 0.05) * .05)\n",
    "# gathered['n_plays'] = \n",
    "gathered"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 63,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
      "text/plain": [
       "dict_keys([('FG', 0.0), ('FG', 0.05000000074505806), ('FG', 0.10000000149011612), ('FG', 0.15000000596046448), ('FG', 0.20000000298023224), ('FG', 0.25), ('FG', 0.30000001192092896), ('FG', 0.3499999940395355), ('FG', 0.4000000059604645), ('FG', 0.45000001788139343), ('FG', 0.5), ('FG', 0.550000011920929), ('FG', 0.6000000238418579), ('FG', 0.6500000357627869), ('FG', 0.699999988079071), ('FG', 0.75), ('No_Score', 0.0), ('No_Score', 0.05000000074505806), ('No_Score', 0.10000000149011612), ('No_Score', 0.15000000596046448), ('No_Score', 0.20000000298023224), ('No_Score', 0.25), ('No_Score', 0.30000001192092896), ('No_Score', 0.3499999940395355), ('No_Score', 0.4000000059604645), ('No_Score', 0.45000001788139343), ('No_Score', 0.5), ('No_Score', 0.550000011920929), ('No_Score', 0.6000000238418579), ('No_Score', 0.6500000357627869), ('No_Score', 0.699999988079071), ('No_Score', 0.75), ('Opp_FG', 0.0), ('Opp_FG', 0.05000000074505806), ('Opp_FG', 0.10000000149011612), ('Opp_FG', 0.15000000596046448), ('Opp_FG', 0.20000000298023224), ('Opp_FG', 0.25), ('Opp_FG', 0.30000001192092896), ('Opp_FG', 0.3499999940395355), ('Opp_Safety', 0.0), ('Opp_Safety', 0.05000000074505806), ('Opp_Safety', 0.10000000149011612), ('Opp_Safety', 0.15000000596046448), ('Opp_Safety', 0.20000000298023224), ('Opp_Safety', 0.25), ('Opp_Safety', 0.30000001192092896), ('Opp_Safety', 0.3499999940395355), ('Opp_Safety', 0.4000000059604645), ('Opp_Safety', 0.45000001788139343), ('Opp_Safety', 0.5), ('Opp_Safety', 0.550000011920929), ('Opp_Safety', 0.6000000238418579), ('Opp_Safety', 0.6500000357627869), ('Opp_TD', 0.05000000074505806), ('Opp_TD', 0.10000000149011612), ('Opp_TD', 0.15000000596046448), ('Opp_TD', 0.20000000298023224), ('Opp_TD', 0.25), ('Opp_TD', 0.30000001192092896), ('Opp_TD', 0.3499999940395355), ('Opp_TD', 0.4000000059604645), ('Opp_TD', 0.45000001788139343), ('Opp_TD', 0.5), ('Opp_TD', 0.550000011920929), ('Opp_TD', 0.6000000238418579), ('Opp_TD', 0.6500000357627869), ('Opp_TD', 0.699999988079071), ('Opp_TD', 0.75), ('Safety', 0.0), ('Safety', 0.05000000074505806), ('Safety', 0.10000000149011612), ('Safety', 0.15000000596046448), ('TD', 0.0), ('TD', 0.05000000074505806), ('TD', 0.10000000149011612), ('TD', 0.15000000596046448), ('TD', 0.20000000298023224), ('TD', 0.25), ('TD', 0.30000001192092896), ('TD', 0.3499999940395355), ('TD', 0.4000000059604645), ('TD', 0.45000001788139343), ('TD', 0.5), ('TD', 0.550000011920929), ('TD', 0.6000000238418579), ('TD', 0.6500000357627869), ('TD', 0.699999988079071), ('TD', 0.75), ('TD', 0.800000011920929), ('TD', 0.8500000238418579), ('TD', 0.9000000357627869)])"
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 63,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "grouped_score = gathered.groupby(['next_score_type','bin_pred_prob'])\n",
    "grouped_score.groups.keys()"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 64,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
      "text/html": [
       "<div>\n",
       "<style scoped>\n",
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       "        vertical-align: middle;\n",
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       "\n",
       "    .dataframe tbody tr th {\n",
       "        vertical-align: top;\n",
       "    }\n",
       "\n",
       "    .dataframe thead th {\n",
       "        text-align: right;\n",
       "    }\n",
       "</style>\n",
       "<table border=\"1\" class=\"dataframe\">\n",
       "  <thead>\n",
       "    <tr style=\"text-align: right;\">\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th>next_score_type</th>\n",
       "      <th>bin_pred_prob</th>\n",
       "      <th>n_plays</th>\n",
       "      <th>n_scoring_events</th>\n",
       "      <th>bin_actual_prob</th>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "  </thead>\n",
       "  <tbody>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>0</th>\n",
       "      <td>FG</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.00</td>\n",
       "      <td>7449.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>209.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.028057</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>1</th>\n",
       "      <td>FG</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.05</td>\n",
       "      <td>108105.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>11479.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.106184</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>2</th>\n",
       "      <td>FG</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.10</td>\n",
       "      <td>241686.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>25564.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.105774</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>3</th>\n",
       "      <td>FG</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.15</td>\n",
       "      <td>240226.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>34663.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.144293</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>4</th>\n",
       "      <td>FG</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.20</td>\n",
       "      <td>116023.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>22184.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.191203</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>5</th>\n",
       "      <td>FG</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.25</td>\n",
       "      <td>68012.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>16208.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.238311</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>6</th>\n",
       "      <td>FG</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.30</td>\n",
       "      <td>27137.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>7300.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.269005</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>7</th>\n",
       "      <td>FG</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.35</td>\n",
       "      <td>22454.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>7058.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.314332</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>8</th>\n",
       "      <td>FG</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.40</td>\n",
       "      <td>9662.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>3359.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.347651</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>9</th>\n",
       "      <td>FG</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.45</td>\n",
       "      <td>7962.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>3089.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.387968</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>10</th>\n",
       "      <td>FG</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.50</td>\n",
       "      <td>4533.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>2030.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.447827</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>11</th>\n",
       "      <td>FG</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.55</td>\n",
       "      <td>3855.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>1947.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.505058</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>12</th>\n",
       "      <td>FG</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.60</td>\n",
       "      <td>1748.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>1005.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.574943</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>13</th>\n",
       "      <td>FG</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.65</td>\n",
       "      <td>377.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>240.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.636605</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>14</th>\n",
       "      <td>FG</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.70</td>\n",
       "      <td>316.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>218.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.689873</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>15</th>\n",
       "      <td>FG</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.75</td>\n",
       "      <td>38.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>27.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.710526</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>16</th>\n",
       "      <td>No_Score</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.00</td>\n",
       "      <td>609921.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>5608.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.009195</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>17</th>\n",
       "      <td>No_Score</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.05</td>\n",
       "      <td>91524.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>6648.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.072637</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>18</th>\n",
       "      <td>No_Score</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.10</td>\n",
       "      <td>54923.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>6145.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.111884</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>19</th>\n",
       "      <td>No_Score</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.15</td>\n",
       "      <td>28850.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>5109.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.177088</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>20</th>\n",
       "      <td>No_Score</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.20</td>\n",
       "      <td>22460.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>5008.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.222974</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>21</th>\n",
       "      <td>No_Score</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.25</td>\n",
       "      <td>11948.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>3190.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.266990</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>22</th>\n",
       "      <td>No_Score</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.30</td>\n",
       "      <td>6088.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>1876.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.308147</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>23</th>\n",
       "      <td>No_Score</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.35</td>\n",
       "      <td>6566.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>2317.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.352878</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>24</th>\n",
       "      <td>No_Score</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.40</td>\n",
       "      <td>4943.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>2080.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.420797</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>25</th>\n",
       "      <td>No_Score</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.45</td>\n",
       "      <td>4877.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>2219.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.454993</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>26</th>\n",
       "      <td>No_Score</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.50</td>\n",
       "      <td>3469.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>1768.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.509657</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>27</th>\n",
       "      <td>No_Score</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.55</td>\n",
       "      <td>4602.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>2643.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.574316</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>28</th>\n",
       "      <td>No_Score</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.60</td>\n",
       "      <td>4307.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>2719.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.631298</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>29</th>\n",
       "      <td>No_Score</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.65</td>\n",
       "      <td>2491.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>1651.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.662786</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>30</th>\n",
       "      <td>No_Score</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.70</td>\n",
       "      <td>2613.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>1833.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.701493</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>31</th>\n",
       "      <td>No_Score</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.75</td>\n",
       "      <td>1.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.000000</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>32</th>\n",
       "      <td>Opp_FG</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.00</td>\n",
       "      <td>47226.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>672.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.014229</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>33</th>\n",
       "      <td>Opp_FG</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.05</td>\n",
       "      <td>218784.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>10777.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.049259</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>34</th>\n",
       "      <td>Opp_FG</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.10</td>\n",
       "      <td>379473.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>38101.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.100405</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>35</th>\n",
       "      <td>Opp_FG</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.15</td>\n",
       "      <td>200590.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>27154.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.135371</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>36</th>\n",
       "      <td>Opp_FG</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.20</td>\n",
       "      <td>12534.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>2166.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.172810</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>37</th>\n",
       "      <td>Opp_FG</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.25</td>\n",
       "      <td>873.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>135.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.154639</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>38</th>\n",
       "      <td>Opp_FG</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.30</td>\n",
       "      <td>90.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>20.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.222222</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>39</th>\n",
       "      <td>Opp_FG</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.35</td>\n",
       "      <td>13.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>2.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.153846</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>40</th>\n",
       "      <td>Opp_Safety</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.00</td>\n",
       "      <td>842598.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>1365.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.001620</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>41</th>\n",
       "      <td>Opp_Safety</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.05</td>\n",
       "      <td>9744.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>209.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.021449</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>42</th>\n",
       "      <td>Opp_Safety</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.10</td>\n",
       "      <td>2348.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>36.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.015332</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>43</th>\n",
       "      <td>Opp_Safety</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.15</td>\n",
       "      <td>442.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>8.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.018100</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>44</th>\n",
       "      <td>Opp_Safety</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.20</td>\n",
       "      <td>385.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>6.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.015584</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>45</th>\n",
       "      <td>Opp_Safety</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.25</td>\n",
       "      <td>600.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>3.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.005000</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>46</th>\n",
       "      <td>Opp_Safety</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.30</td>\n",
       "      <td>338.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>3.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.008876</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>47</th>\n",
       "      <td>Opp_Safety</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.35</td>\n",
       "      <td>516.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>5.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.009690</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>48</th>\n",
       "      <td>Opp_Safety</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.40</td>\n",
       "      <td>767.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>6.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.007823</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>49</th>\n",
       "      <td>Opp_Safety</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.45</td>\n",
       "      <td>910.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>12.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.013187</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>50</th>\n",
       "      <td>Opp_Safety</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.50</td>\n",
       "      <td>832.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>9.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.010817</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>51</th>\n",
       "      <td>Opp_Safety</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.55</td>\n",
       "      <td>98.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>1.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.010204</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>52</th>\n",
       "      <td>Opp_Safety</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.60</td>\n",
       "      <td>4.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.000000</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>53</th>\n",
       "      <td>Opp_Safety</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.65</td>\n",
       "      <td>1.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.000000</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>54</th>\n",
       "      <td>Opp_TD</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.05</td>\n",
       "      <td>52916.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>2643.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.049947</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>55</th>\n",
       "      <td>Opp_TD</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.10</td>\n",
       "      <td>68224.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>6649.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.097458</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>56</th>\n",
       "      <td>Opp_TD</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.15</td>\n",
       "      <td>65327.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>10084.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.154362</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>57</th>\n",
       "      <td>Opp_TD</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.20</td>\n",
       "      <td>88544.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>18469.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.208586</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>58</th>\n",
       "      <td>Opp_TD</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.25</td>\n",
       "      <td>113481.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>28937.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.254994</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>59</th>\n",
       "      <td>Opp_TD</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.30</td>\n",
       "      <td>137378.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>41635.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.303069</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>60</th>\n",
       "      <td>Opp_TD</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.35</td>\n",
       "      <td>138219.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>48477.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.350726</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>61</th>\n",
       "      <td>Opp_TD</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.40</td>\n",
       "      <td>95832.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>37572.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.392061</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>62</th>\n",
       "      <td>Opp_TD</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.45</td>\n",
       "      <td>62040.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>26970.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.434720</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>63</th>\n",
       "      <td>Opp_TD</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.50</td>\n",
       "      <td>28632.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>13462.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.470173</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>64</th>\n",
       "      <td>Opp_TD</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.55</td>\n",
       "      <td>6826.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>3191.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.467477</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>65</th>\n",
       "      <td>Opp_TD</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.60</td>\n",
       "      <td>1273.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>534.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.419482</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>66</th>\n",
       "      <td>Opp_TD</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.65</td>\n",
       "      <td>480.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>156.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.325000</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>67</th>\n",
       "      <td>Opp_TD</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.70</td>\n",
       "      <td>406.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>138.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.339901</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>68</th>\n",
       "      <td>Opp_TD</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.75</td>\n",
       "      <td>5.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.000000</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>69</th>\n",
       "      <td>Safety</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.00</td>\n",
       "      <td>858639.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>2482.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.002891</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>70</th>\n",
       "      <td>Safety</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.05</td>\n",
       "      <td>937.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>39.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.041622</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>71</th>\n",
       "      <td>Safety</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.10</td>\n",
       "      <td>6.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>1.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.166667</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>72</th>\n",
       "      <td>Safety</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.15</td>\n",
       "      <td>1.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>1.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>1.000000</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>73</th>\n",
       "      <td>TD</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.00</td>\n",
       "      <td>7.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.000000</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>74</th>\n",
       "      <td>TD</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.05</td>\n",
       "      <td>11600.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>477.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.041121</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>75</th>\n",
       "      <td>TD</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.10</td>\n",
       "      <td>12434.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>1053.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.084687</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>76</th>\n",
       "      <td>TD</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.15</td>\n",
       "      <td>18855.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>2611.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.138478</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>77</th>\n",
       "      <td>TD</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.20</td>\n",
       "      <td>35864.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>7024.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.195851</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>78</th>\n",
       "      <td>TD</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.25</td>\n",
       "      <td>59087.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>14652.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.247973</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>79</th>\n",
       "      <td>TD</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.30</td>\n",
       "      <td>101458.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>30898.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.304540</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>80</th>\n",
       "      <td>TD</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.35</td>\n",
       "      <td>129706.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>46143.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.355751</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>81</th>\n",
       "      <td>TD</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.40</td>\n",
       "      <td>141662.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>57297.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.404463</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>82</th>\n",
       "      <td>TD</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.45</td>\n",
       "      <td>120649.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>55459.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.459672</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>83</th>\n",
       "      <td>TD</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.50</td>\n",
       "      <td>85568.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>43626.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.509840</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>84</th>\n",
       "      <td>TD</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.55</td>\n",
       "      <td>64180.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>36211.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.564210</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>85</th>\n",
       "      <td>TD</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.60</td>\n",
       "      <td>28088.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>17092.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.608516</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>86</th>\n",
       "      <td>TD</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.65</td>\n",
       "      <td>20306.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>13482.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.663942</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>87</th>\n",
       "      <td>TD</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.70</td>\n",
       "      <td>9403.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>6745.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.717324</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>88</th>\n",
       "      <td>TD</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.75</td>\n",
       "      <td>6174.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>4796.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.776806</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>89</th>\n",
       "      <td>TD</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.80</td>\n",
       "      <td>4097.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>3348.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.817183</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>90</th>\n",
       "      <td>TD</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.85</td>\n",
       "      <td>7185.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>6172.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.859012</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>91</th>\n",
       "      <td>TD</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.90</td>\n",
       "      <td>3260.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>2973.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.911963</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "  </tbody>\n",
       "</table>\n",
       "</div>"
      ],
      "text/plain": [
       "   next_score_type  bin_pred_prob   n_plays  n_scoring_events  bin_actual_prob\n",
       "0               FG           0.00    7449.0             209.0         0.028057\n",
       "1               FG           0.05  108105.0           11479.0         0.106184\n",
       "2               FG           0.10  241686.0           25564.0         0.105774\n",
       "3               FG           0.15  240226.0           34663.0         0.144293\n",
       "4               FG           0.20  116023.0           22184.0         0.191203\n",
       "5               FG           0.25   68012.0           16208.0         0.238311\n",
       "6               FG           0.30   27137.0            7300.0         0.269005\n",
       "7               FG           0.35   22454.0            7058.0         0.314332\n",
       "8               FG           0.40    9662.0            3359.0         0.347651\n",
       "9               FG           0.45    7962.0            3089.0         0.387968\n",
       "10              FG           0.50    4533.0            2030.0         0.447827\n",
       "11              FG           0.55    3855.0            1947.0         0.505058\n",
       "12              FG           0.60    1748.0            1005.0         0.574943\n",
       "13              FG           0.65     377.0             240.0         0.636605\n",
       "14              FG           0.70     316.0             218.0         0.689873\n",
       "15              FG           0.75      38.0              27.0         0.710526\n",
       "16        No_Score           0.00  609921.0            5608.0         0.009195\n",
       "17        No_Score           0.05   91524.0            6648.0         0.072637\n",
       "18        No_Score           0.10   54923.0            6145.0         0.111884\n",
       "19        No_Score           0.15   28850.0            5109.0         0.177088\n",
       "20        No_Score           0.20   22460.0            5008.0         0.222974\n",
       "21        No_Score           0.25   11948.0            3190.0         0.266990\n",
       "22        No_Score           0.30    6088.0            1876.0         0.308147\n",
       "23        No_Score           0.35    6566.0            2317.0         0.352878\n",
       "24        No_Score           0.40    4943.0            2080.0         0.420797\n",
       "25        No_Score           0.45    4877.0            2219.0         0.454993\n",
       "26        No_Score           0.50    3469.0            1768.0         0.509657\n",
       "27        No_Score           0.55    4602.0            2643.0         0.574316\n",
       "28        No_Score           0.60    4307.0            2719.0         0.631298\n",
       "29        No_Score           0.65    2491.0            1651.0         0.662786\n",
       "30        No_Score           0.70    2613.0            1833.0         0.701493\n",
       "31        No_Score           0.75       1.0               0.0         0.000000\n",
       "32          Opp_FG           0.00   47226.0             672.0         0.014229\n",
       "33          Opp_FG           0.05  218784.0           10777.0         0.049259\n",
       "34          Opp_FG           0.10  379473.0           38101.0         0.100405\n",
       "35          Opp_FG           0.15  200590.0           27154.0         0.135371\n",
       "36          Opp_FG           0.20   12534.0            2166.0         0.172810\n",
       "37          Opp_FG           0.25     873.0             135.0         0.154639\n",
       "38          Opp_FG           0.30      90.0              20.0         0.222222\n",
       "39          Opp_FG           0.35      13.0               2.0         0.153846\n",
       "40      Opp_Safety           0.00  842598.0            1365.0         0.001620\n",
       "41      Opp_Safety           0.05    9744.0             209.0         0.021449\n",
       "42      Opp_Safety           0.10    2348.0              36.0         0.015332\n",
       "43      Opp_Safety           0.15     442.0               8.0         0.018100\n",
       "44      Opp_Safety           0.20     385.0               6.0         0.015584\n",
       "45      Opp_Safety           0.25     600.0               3.0         0.005000\n",
       "46      Opp_Safety           0.30     338.0               3.0         0.008876\n",
       "47      Opp_Safety           0.35     516.0               5.0         0.009690\n",
       "48      Opp_Safety           0.40     767.0               6.0         0.007823\n",
       "49      Opp_Safety           0.45     910.0              12.0         0.013187\n",
       "50      Opp_Safety           0.50     832.0               9.0         0.010817\n",
       "51      Opp_Safety           0.55      98.0               1.0         0.010204\n",
       "52      Opp_Safety           0.60       4.0               0.0         0.000000\n",
       "53      Opp_Safety           0.65       1.0               0.0         0.000000\n",
       "54          Opp_TD           0.05   52916.0            2643.0         0.049947\n",
       "55          Opp_TD           0.10   68224.0            6649.0         0.097458\n",
       "56          Opp_TD           0.15   65327.0           10084.0         0.154362\n",
       "57          Opp_TD           0.20   88544.0           18469.0         0.208586\n",
       "58          Opp_TD           0.25  113481.0           28937.0         0.254994\n",
       "59          Opp_TD           0.30  137378.0           41635.0         0.303069\n",
       "60          Opp_TD           0.35  138219.0           48477.0         0.350726\n",
       "61          Opp_TD           0.40   95832.0           37572.0         0.392061\n",
       "62          Opp_TD           0.45   62040.0           26970.0         0.434720\n",
       "63          Opp_TD           0.50   28632.0           13462.0         0.470173\n",
       "64          Opp_TD           0.55    6826.0            3191.0         0.467477\n",
       "65          Opp_TD           0.60    1273.0             534.0         0.419482\n",
       "66          Opp_TD           0.65     480.0             156.0         0.325000\n",
       "67          Opp_TD           0.70     406.0             138.0         0.339901\n",
       "68          Opp_TD           0.75       5.0               0.0         0.000000\n",
       "69          Safety           0.00  858639.0            2482.0         0.002891\n",
       "70          Safety           0.05     937.0              39.0         0.041622\n",
       "71          Safety           0.10       6.0               1.0         0.166667\n",
       "72          Safety           0.15       1.0               1.0         1.000000\n",
       "73              TD           0.00       7.0               0.0         0.000000\n",
       "74              TD           0.05   11600.0             477.0         0.041121\n",
       "75              TD           0.10   12434.0            1053.0         0.084687\n",
       "76              TD           0.15   18855.0            2611.0         0.138478\n",
       "77              TD           0.20   35864.0            7024.0         0.195851\n",
       "78              TD           0.25   59087.0           14652.0         0.247973\n",
       "79              TD           0.30  101458.0           30898.0         0.304540\n",
       "80              TD           0.35  129706.0           46143.0         0.355751\n",
       "81              TD           0.40  141662.0           57297.0         0.404463\n",
       "82              TD           0.45  120649.0           55459.0         0.459672\n",
       "83              TD           0.50   85568.0           43626.0         0.509840\n",
       "84              TD           0.55   64180.0           36211.0         0.564210\n",
       "85              TD           0.60   28088.0           17092.0         0.608516\n",
       "86              TD           0.65   20306.0           13482.0         0.663942\n",
       "87              TD           0.70    9403.0            6745.0         0.717324\n",
       "88              TD           0.75    6174.0            4796.0         0.776806\n",
       "89              TD           0.80    4097.0            3348.0         0.817183\n",
       "90              TD           0.85    7185.0            6172.0         0.859012\n",
       "91              TD           0.90    3260.0            2973.0         0.911963"
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 64,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "# https://stackoverflow.com/questions/14529838/apply-multiple-functions-to-multiple-groupby-columns\n",
    "\n",
    "def organize(grp):\n",
    "    d = {}\n",
    "    d['n_plays'] = len(grp)\n",
    "    d['n_scoring_events'] = len(grp[grp.next_score == grp.next_score_type])\n",
    "    d['bin_actual_prob'] = d['n_scoring_events'] / d['n_plays']\n",
    "    return pd.Series(d, index=['n_plays','n_scoring_events','bin_actual_prob'])\n",
    "\n",
    "organized = grouped_score.apply(organize)\n",
    "organized = organized.reset_index()\n",
    "organized"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 65,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
      "text/html": [
       "<div>\n",
       "<style scoped>\n",
       "    .dataframe tbody tr th:only-of-type {\n",
       "        vertical-align: middle;\n",
       "    }\n",
       "\n",
       "    .dataframe tbody tr th {\n",
       "        vertical-align: top;\n",
       "    }\n",
       "\n",
       "    .dataframe thead th {\n",
       "        text-align: right;\n",
       "    }\n",
       "</style>\n",
       "<table border=\"1\" class=\"dataframe\">\n",
       "  <thead>\n",
       "    <tr style=\"text-align: right;\">\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th>next_score_type</th>\n",
       "      <th>bin_pred_prob</th>\n",
       "      <th>n_plays</th>\n",
       "      <th>n_scoring_events</th>\n",
       "      <th>bin_actual_prob</th>\n",
       "      <th>cal_diff</th>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "  </thead>\n",
       "  <tbody>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>0</th>\n",
       "      <td>FG</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.00</td>\n",
       "      <td>7449.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>209.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.028057</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.028057</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>1</th>\n",
       "      <td>FG</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.05</td>\n",
       "      <td>108105.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>11479.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.106184</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.056184</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>2</th>\n",
       "      <td>FG</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.10</td>\n",
       "      <td>241686.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>25564.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.105774</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.005774</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>3</th>\n",
       "      <td>FG</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.15</td>\n",
       "      <td>240226.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>34663.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.144293</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.005707</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>4</th>\n",
       "      <td>FG</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.20</td>\n",
       "      <td>116023.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>22184.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.191203</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.008797</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>5</th>\n",
       "      <td>FG</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.25</td>\n",
       "      <td>68012.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>16208.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.238311</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.011689</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>6</th>\n",
       "      <td>FG</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.30</td>\n",
       "      <td>27137.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>7300.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.269005</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.030995</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>7</th>\n",
       "      <td>FG</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.35</td>\n",
       "      <td>22454.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>7058.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.314332</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.035668</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>8</th>\n",
       "      <td>FG</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.40</td>\n",
       "      <td>9662.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>3359.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.347651</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.052349</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>9</th>\n",
       "      <td>FG</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.45</td>\n",
       "      <td>7962.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>3089.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.387968</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.062032</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>10</th>\n",
       "      <td>FG</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.50</td>\n",
       "      <td>4533.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>2030.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.447827</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.052173</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>11</th>\n",
       "      <td>FG</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.55</td>\n",
       "      <td>3855.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>1947.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.505058</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.044942</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>12</th>\n",
       "      <td>FG</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.60</td>\n",
       "      <td>1748.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>1005.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.574943</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.025057</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>13</th>\n",
       "      <td>FG</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.65</td>\n",
       "      <td>377.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>240.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.636605</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.013395</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>14</th>\n",
       "      <td>FG</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.70</td>\n",
       "      <td>316.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>218.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.689873</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.010127</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>15</th>\n",
       "      <td>FG</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.75</td>\n",
       "      <td>38.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>27.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.710526</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.039474</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>16</th>\n",
       "      <td>No_Score</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.00</td>\n",
       "      <td>609921.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>5608.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.009195</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.009195</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>17</th>\n",
       "      <td>No_Score</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.05</td>\n",
       "      <td>91524.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>6648.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.072637</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.022637</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>18</th>\n",
       "      <td>No_Score</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.10</td>\n",
       "      <td>54923.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>6145.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.111884</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.011884</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>19</th>\n",
       "      <td>No_Score</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.15</td>\n",
       "      <td>28850.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>5109.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.177088</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.027088</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>20</th>\n",
       "      <td>No_Score</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.20</td>\n",
       "      <td>22460.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>5008.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.222974</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.022974</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>21</th>\n",
       "      <td>No_Score</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.25</td>\n",
       "      <td>11948.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>3190.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.266990</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.016990</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>22</th>\n",
       "      <td>No_Score</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.30</td>\n",
       "      <td>6088.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>1876.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.308147</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.008147</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>23</th>\n",
       "      <td>No_Score</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.35</td>\n",
       "      <td>6566.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>2317.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.352878</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.002878</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>24</th>\n",
       "      <td>No_Score</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.40</td>\n",
       "      <td>4943.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>2080.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.420797</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.020797</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>25</th>\n",
       "      <td>No_Score</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.45</td>\n",
       "      <td>4877.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>2219.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.454993</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.004993</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>26</th>\n",
       "      <td>No_Score</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.50</td>\n",
       "      <td>3469.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>1768.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.509657</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.009657</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>27</th>\n",
       "      <td>No_Score</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.55</td>\n",
       "      <td>4602.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>2643.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.574316</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.024316</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>28</th>\n",
       "      <td>No_Score</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.60</td>\n",
       "      <td>4307.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>2719.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.631298</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.031298</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>29</th>\n",
       "      <td>No_Score</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.65</td>\n",
       "      <td>2491.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>1651.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.662786</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.012786</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>30</th>\n",
       "      <td>No_Score</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.70</td>\n",
       "      <td>2613.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>1833.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.701493</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.001493</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>31</th>\n",
       "      <td>No_Score</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.75</td>\n",
       "      <td>1.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.000000</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.750000</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>32</th>\n",
       "      <td>Opp_FG</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.00</td>\n",
       "      <td>47226.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>672.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.014229</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.014229</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>33</th>\n",
       "      <td>Opp_FG</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.05</td>\n",
       "      <td>218784.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>10777.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.049259</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.000741</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>34</th>\n",
       "      <td>Opp_FG</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.10</td>\n",
       "      <td>379473.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>38101.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.100405</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.000405</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>35</th>\n",
       "      <td>Opp_FG</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.15</td>\n",
       "      <td>200590.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>27154.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.135371</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.014629</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>36</th>\n",
       "      <td>Opp_FG</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.20</td>\n",
       "      <td>12534.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>2166.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.172810</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.027190</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>37</th>\n",
       "      <td>Opp_FG</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.25</td>\n",
       "      <td>873.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>135.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.154639</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.095361</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>38</th>\n",
       "      <td>Opp_FG</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.30</td>\n",
       "      <td>90.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>20.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.222222</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.077778</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>39</th>\n",
       "      <td>Opp_FG</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.35</td>\n",
       "      <td>13.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>2.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.153846</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.196154</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>40</th>\n",
       "      <td>Opp_Safety</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.00</td>\n",
       "      <td>842598.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>1365.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.001620</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.001620</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>41</th>\n",
       "      <td>Opp_Safety</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.05</td>\n",
       "      <td>9744.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>209.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.021449</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.028551</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>42</th>\n",
       "      <td>Opp_Safety</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.10</td>\n",
       "      <td>2348.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>36.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.015332</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.084668</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>43</th>\n",
       "      <td>Opp_Safety</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.15</td>\n",
       "      <td>442.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>8.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.018100</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.131900</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>44</th>\n",
       "      <td>Opp_Safety</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.20</td>\n",
       "      <td>385.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>6.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.015584</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.184416</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>45</th>\n",
       "      <td>Opp_Safety</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.25</td>\n",
       "      <td>600.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>3.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.005000</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.245000</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>46</th>\n",
       "      <td>Opp_Safety</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.30</td>\n",
       "      <td>338.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>3.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.008876</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.291124</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>47</th>\n",
       "      <td>Opp_Safety</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.35</td>\n",
       "      <td>516.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>5.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.009690</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.340310</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>48</th>\n",
       "      <td>Opp_Safety</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.40</td>\n",
       "      <td>767.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>6.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.007823</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.392177</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>49</th>\n",
       "      <td>Opp_Safety</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.45</td>\n",
       "      <td>910.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>12.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.013187</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.436813</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>50</th>\n",
       "      <td>Opp_Safety</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.50</td>\n",
       "      <td>832.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>9.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.010817</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.489183</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>51</th>\n",
       "      <td>Opp_Safety</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.55</td>\n",
       "      <td>98.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>1.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.010204</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.539796</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>52</th>\n",
       "      <td>Opp_Safety</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.60</td>\n",
       "      <td>4.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.000000</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.600000</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>53</th>\n",
       "      <td>Opp_Safety</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.65</td>\n",
       "      <td>1.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.000000</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.650000</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>54</th>\n",
       "      <td>Opp_TD</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.05</td>\n",
       "      <td>52916.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>2643.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.049947</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.000053</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>55</th>\n",
       "      <td>Opp_TD</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.10</td>\n",
       "      <td>68224.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>6649.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.097458</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.002542</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>56</th>\n",
       "      <td>Opp_TD</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.15</td>\n",
       "      <td>65327.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>10084.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.154362</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.004362</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>57</th>\n",
       "      <td>Opp_TD</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.20</td>\n",
       "      <td>88544.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>18469.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.208586</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.008586</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>58</th>\n",
       "      <td>Opp_TD</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.25</td>\n",
       "      <td>113481.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>28937.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.254994</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.004994</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>59</th>\n",
       "      <td>Opp_TD</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.30</td>\n",
       "      <td>137378.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>41635.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.303069</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.003069</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>60</th>\n",
       "      <td>Opp_TD</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.35</td>\n",
       "      <td>138219.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>48477.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.350726</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.000726</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>61</th>\n",
       "      <td>Opp_TD</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.40</td>\n",
       "      <td>95832.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>37572.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.392061</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.007939</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>62</th>\n",
       "      <td>Opp_TD</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.45</td>\n",
       "      <td>62040.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>26970.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.434720</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.015280</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>63</th>\n",
       "      <td>Opp_TD</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.50</td>\n",
       "      <td>28632.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>13462.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.470173</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.029827</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>64</th>\n",
       "      <td>Opp_TD</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.55</td>\n",
       "      <td>6826.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>3191.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.467477</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.082523</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>65</th>\n",
       "      <td>Opp_TD</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.60</td>\n",
       "      <td>1273.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>534.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.419482</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.180518</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>66</th>\n",
       "      <td>Opp_TD</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.65</td>\n",
       "      <td>480.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>156.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.325000</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.325000</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>67</th>\n",
       "      <td>Opp_TD</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.70</td>\n",
       "      <td>406.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>138.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.339901</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.360099</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>68</th>\n",
       "      <td>Opp_TD</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.75</td>\n",
       "      <td>5.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.000000</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.750000</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>69</th>\n",
       "      <td>Safety</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.00</td>\n",
       "      <td>858639.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>2482.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.002891</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.002891</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>70</th>\n",
       "      <td>Safety</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.05</td>\n",
       "      <td>937.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>39.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.041622</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.008378</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>71</th>\n",
       "      <td>Safety</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.10</td>\n",
       "      <td>6.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>1.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.166667</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.066667</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>72</th>\n",
       "      <td>Safety</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.15</td>\n",
       "      <td>1.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>1.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>1.000000</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.850000</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>73</th>\n",
       "      <td>TD</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.00</td>\n",
       "      <td>7.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.000000</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.000000</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>74</th>\n",
       "      <td>TD</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.05</td>\n",
       "      <td>11600.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>477.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.041121</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.008879</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>75</th>\n",
       "      <td>TD</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.10</td>\n",
       "      <td>12434.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>1053.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.084687</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.015313</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>76</th>\n",
       "      <td>TD</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.15</td>\n",
       "      <td>18855.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>2611.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.138478</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.011522</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>77</th>\n",
       "      <td>TD</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.20</td>\n",
       "      <td>35864.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>7024.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.195851</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.004149</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>78</th>\n",
       "      <td>TD</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.25</td>\n",
       "      <td>59087.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>14652.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.247973</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.002027</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>79</th>\n",
       "      <td>TD</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.30</td>\n",
       "      <td>101458.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>30898.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.304540</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.004540</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>80</th>\n",
       "      <td>TD</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.35</td>\n",
       "      <td>129706.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>46143.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.355751</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.005751</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>81</th>\n",
       "      <td>TD</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.40</td>\n",
       "      <td>141662.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>57297.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.404463</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.004463</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>82</th>\n",
       "      <td>TD</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.45</td>\n",
       "      <td>120649.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>55459.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.459672</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.009672</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>83</th>\n",
       "      <td>TD</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.50</td>\n",
       "      <td>85568.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>43626.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.509840</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.009840</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>84</th>\n",
       "      <td>TD</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.55</td>\n",
       "      <td>64180.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>36211.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.564210</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.014210</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>85</th>\n",
       "      <td>TD</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.60</td>\n",
       "      <td>28088.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>17092.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.608516</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.008516</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>86</th>\n",
       "      <td>TD</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.65</td>\n",
       "      <td>20306.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>13482.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.663942</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.013942</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>87</th>\n",
       "      <td>TD</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.70</td>\n",
       "      <td>9403.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>6745.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.717324</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.017324</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>88</th>\n",
       "      <td>TD</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.75</td>\n",
       "      <td>6174.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>4796.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.776806</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.026806</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>89</th>\n",
       "      <td>TD</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.80</td>\n",
       "      <td>4097.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>3348.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.817183</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.017183</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>90</th>\n",
       "      <td>TD</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.85</td>\n",
       "      <td>7185.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>6172.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.859012</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.009012</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>91</th>\n",
       "      <td>TD</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.90</td>\n",
       "      <td>3260.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>2973.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.911963</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.011963</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "  </tbody>\n",
       "</table>\n",
       "</div>"
      ],
      "text/plain": [
       "   next_score_type  bin_pred_prob   n_plays  n_scoring_events  \\\n",
       "0               FG           0.00    7449.0             209.0   \n",
       "1               FG           0.05  108105.0           11479.0   \n",
       "2               FG           0.10  241686.0           25564.0   \n",
       "3               FG           0.15  240226.0           34663.0   \n",
       "4               FG           0.20  116023.0           22184.0   \n",
       "5               FG           0.25   68012.0           16208.0   \n",
       "6               FG           0.30   27137.0            7300.0   \n",
       "7               FG           0.35   22454.0            7058.0   \n",
       "8               FG           0.40    9662.0            3359.0   \n",
       "9               FG           0.45    7962.0            3089.0   \n",
       "10              FG           0.50    4533.0            2030.0   \n",
       "11              FG           0.55    3855.0            1947.0   \n",
       "12              FG           0.60    1748.0            1005.0   \n",
       "13              FG           0.65     377.0             240.0   \n",
       "14              FG           0.70     316.0             218.0   \n",
       "15              FG           0.75      38.0              27.0   \n",
       "16        No_Score           0.00  609921.0            5608.0   \n",
       "17        No_Score           0.05   91524.0            6648.0   \n",
       "18        No_Score           0.10   54923.0            6145.0   \n",
       "19        No_Score           0.15   28850.0            5109.0   \n",
       "20        No_Score           0.20   22460.0            5008.0   \n",
       "21        No_Score           0.25   11948.0            3190.0   \n",
       "22        No_Score           0.30    6088.0            1876.0   \n",
       "23        No_Score           0.35    6566.0            2317.0   \n",
       "24        No_Score           0.40    4943.0            2080.0   \n",
       "25        No_Score           0.45    4877.0            2219.0   \n",
       "26        No_Score           0.50    3469.0            1768.0   \n",
       "27        No_Score           0.55    4602.0            2643.0   \n",
       "28        No_Score           0.60    4307.0            2719.0   \n",
       "29        No_Score           0.65    2491.0            1651.0   \n",
       "30        No_Score           0.70    2613.0            1833.0   \n",
       "31        No_Score           0.75       1.0               0.0   \n",
       "32          Opp_FG           0.00   47226.0             672.0   \n",
       "33          Opp_FG           0.05  218784.0           10777.0   \n",
       "34          Opp_FG           0.10  379473.0           38101.0   \n",
       "35          Opp_FG           0.15  200590.0           27154.0   \n",
       "36          Opp_FG           0.20   12534.0            2166.0   \n",
       "37          Opp_FG           0.25     873.0             135.0   \n",
       "38          Opp_FG           0.30      90.0              20.0   \n",
       "39          Opp_FG           0.35      13.0               2.0   \n",
       "40      Opp_Safety           0.00  842598.0            1365.0   \n",
       "41      Opp_Safety           0.05    9744.0             209.0   \n",
       "42      Opp_Safety           0.10    2348.0              36.0   \n",
       "43      Opp_Safety           0.15     442.0               8.0   \n",
       "44      Opp_Safety           0.20     385.0               6.0   \n",
       "45      Opp_Safety           0.25     600.0               3.0   \n",
       "46      Opp_Safety           0.30     338.0               3.0   \n",
       "47      Opp_Safety           0.35     516.0               5.0   \n",
       "48      Opp_Safety           0.40     767.0               6.0   \n",
       "49      Opp_Safety           0.45     910.0              12.0   \n",
       "50      Opp_Safety           0.50     832.0               9.0   \n",
       "51      Opp_Safety           0.55      98.0               1.0   \n",
       "52      Opp_Safety           0.60       4.0               0.0   \n",
       "53      Opp_Safety           0.65       1.0               0.0   \n",
       "54          Opp_TD           0.05   52916.0            2643.0   \n",
       "55          Opp_TD           0.10   68224.0            6649.0   \n",
       "56          Opp_TD           0.15   65327.0           10084.0   \n",
       "57          Opp_TD           0.20   88544.0           18469.0   \n",
       "58          Opp_TD           0.25  113481.0           28937.0   \n",
       "59          Opp_TD           0.30  137378.0           41635.0   \n",
       "60          Opp_TD           0.35  138219.0           48477.0   \n",
       "61          Opp_TD           0.40   95832.0           37572.0   \n",
       "62          Opp_TD           0.45   62040.0           26970.0   \n",
       "63          Opp_TD           0.50   28632.0           13462.0   \n",
       "64          Opp_TD           0.55    6826.0            3191.0   \n",
       "65          Opp_TD           0.60    1273.0             534.0   \n",
       "66          Opp_TD           0.65     480.0             156.0   \n",
       "67          Opp_TD           0.70     406.0             138.0   \n",
       "68          Opp_TD           0.75       5.0               0.0   \n",
       "69          Safety           0.00  858639.0            2482.0   \n",
       "70          Safety           0.05     937.0              39.0   \n",
       "71          Safety           0.10       6.0               1.0   \n",
       "72          Safety           0.15       1.0               1.0   \n",
       "73              TD           0.00       7.0               0.0   \n",
       "74              TD           0.05   11600.0             477.0   \n",
       "75              TD           0.10   12434.0            1053.0   \n",
       "76              TD           0.15   18855.0            2611.0   \n",
       "77              TD           0.20   35864.0            7024.0   \n",
       "78              TD           0.25   59087.0           14652.0   \n",
       "79              TD           0.30  101458.0           30898.0   \n",
       "80              TD           0.35  129706.0           46143.0   \n",
       "81              TD           0.40  141662.0           57297.0   \n",
       "82              TD           0.45  120649.0           55459.0   \n",
       "83              TD           0.50   85568.0           43626.0   \n",
       "84              TD           0.55   64180.0           36211.0   \n",
       "85              TD           0.60   28088.0           17092.0   \n",
       "86              TD           0.65   20306.0           13482.0   \n",
       "87              TD           0.70    9403.0            6745.0   \n",
       "88              TD           0.75    6174.0            4796.0   \n",
       "89              TD           0.80    4097.0            3348.0   \n",
       "90              TD           0.85    7185.0            6172.0   \n",
       "91              TD           0.90    3260.0            2973.0   \n",
       "\n",
       "    bin_actual_prob  cal_diff  \n",
       "0          0.028057  0.028057  \n",
       "1          0.106184  0.056184  \n",
       "2          0.105774  0.005774  \n",
       "3          0.144293  0.005707  \n",
       "4          0.191203  0.008797  \n",
       "5          0.238311  0.011689  \n",
       "6          0.269005  0.030995  \n",
       "7          0.314332  0.035668  \n",
       "8          0.347651  0.052349  \n",
       "9          0.387968  0.062032  \n",
       "10         0.447827  0.052173  \n",
       "11         0.505058  0.044942  \n",
       "12         0.574943  0.025057  \n",
       "13         0.636605  0.013395  \n",
       "14         0.689873  0.010127  \n",
       "15         0.710526  0.039474  \n",
       "16         0.009195  0.009195  \n",
       "17         0.072637  0.022637  \n",
       "18         0.111884  0.011884  \n",
       "19         0.177088  0.027088  \n",
       "20         0.222974  0.022974  \n",
       "21         0.266990  0.016990  \n",
       "22         0.308147  0.008147  \n",
       "23         0.352878  0.002878  \n",
       "24         0.420797  0.020797  \n",
       "25         0.454993  0.004993  \n",
       "26         0.509657  0.009657  \n",
       "27         0.574316  0.024316  \n",
       "28         0.631298  0.031298  \n",
       "29         0.662786  0.012786  \n",
       "30         0.701493  0.001493  \n",
       "31         0.000000  0.750000  \n",
       "32         0.014229  0.014229  \n",
       "33         0.049259  0.000741  \n",
       "34         0.100405  0.000405  \n",
       "35         0.135371  0.014629  \n",
       "36         0.172810  0.027190  \n",
       "37         0.154639  0.095361  \n",
       "38         0.222222  0.077778  \n",
       "39         0.153846  0.196154  \n",
       "40         0.001620  0.001620  \n",
       "41         0.021449  0.028551  \n",
       "42         0.015332  0.084668  \n",
       "43         0.018100  0.131900  \n",
       "44         0.015584  0.184416  \n",
       "45         0.005000  0.245000  \n",
       "46         0.008876  0.291124  \n",
       "47         0.009690  0.340310  \n",
       "48         0.007823  0.392177  \n",
       "49         0.013187  0.436813  \n",
       "50         0.010817  0.489183  \n",
       "51         0.010204  0.539796  \n",
       "52         0.000000  0.600000  \n",
       "53         0.000000  0.650000  \n",
       "54         0.049947  0.000053  \n",
       "55         0.097458  0.002542  \n",
       "56         0.154362  0.004362  \n",
       "57         0.208586  0.008586  \n",
       "58         0.254994  0.004994  \n",
       "59         0.303069  0.003069  \n",
       "60         0.350726  0.000726  \n",
       "61         0.392061  0.007939  \n",
       "62         0.434720  0.015280  \n",
       "63         0.470173  0.029827  \n",
       "64         0.467477  0.082523  \n",
       "65         0.419482  0.180518  \n",
       "66         0.325000  0.325000  \n",
       "67         0.339901  0.360099  \n",
       "68         0.000000  0.750000  \n",
       "69         0.002891  0.002891  \n",
       "70         0.041622  0.008378  \n",
       "71         0.166667  0.066667  \n",
       "72         1.000000  0.850000  \n",
       "73         0.000000  0.000000  \n",
       "74         0.041121  0.008879  \n",
       "75         0.084687  0.015313  \n",
       "76         0.138478  0.011522  \n",
       "77         0.195851  0.004149  \n",
       "78         0.247973  0.002027  \n",
       "79         0.304540  0.004540  \n",
       "80         0.355751  0.005751  \n",
       "81         0.404463  0.004463  \n",
       "82         0.459672  0.009672  \n",
       "83         0.509840  0.009840  \n",
       "84         0.564210  0.014210  \n",
       "85         0.608516  0.008516  \n",
       "86         0.663942  0.013942  \n",
       "87         0.717324  0.017324  \n",
       "88         0.776806  0.026806  \n",
       "89         0.817183  0.017183  \n",
       "90         0.859012  0.009012  \n",
       "91         0.911963  0.011963  "
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 65,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "organized['cal_diff'] = abs(organized.bin_pred_prob - organized.bin_actual_prob)\n",
    "organized\n"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 66,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
      "text/html": [
       "<div>\n",
       "<style scoped>\n",
       "    .dataframe tbody tr th:only-of-type {\n",
       "        vertical-align: middle;\n",
       "    }\n",
       "\n",
       "    .dataframe tbody tr th {\n",
       "        vertical-align: top;\n",
       "    }\n",
       "\n",
       "    .dataframe thead th {\n",
       "        text-align: right;\n",
       "    }\n",
       "</style>\n",
       "<table border=\"1\" class=\"dataframe\">\n",
       "  <thead>\n",
       "    <tr style=\"text-align: right;\">\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th>next_score_type</th>\n",
       "      <th>weight_cal_err</th>\n",
       "      <th>n_scoring_events</th>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "  </thead>\n",
       "  <tbody>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>0</th>\n",
       "      <td>FG</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.016252</td>\n",
       "      <td>136580.0</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>1</th>\n",
       "      <td>No_Score</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.012035</td>\n",
       "      <td>50814.0</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>2</th>\n",
       "      <td>Opp_FG</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.005068</td>\n",
       "      <td>79027.0</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>3</th>\n",
       "      <td>Opp_Safety</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.004134</td>\n",
       "      <td>1663.0</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>4</th>\n",
       "      <td>Opp_TD</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.006947</td>\n",
       "      <td>238917.0</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>5</th>\n",
       "      <td>Safety</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.002898</td>\n",
       "      <td>2523.0</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>6</th>\n",
       "      <td>TD</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.007636</td>\n",
       "      <td>350059.0</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "  </tbody>\n",
       "</table>\n",
       "</div>"
      ],
      "text/plain": [
       "  next_score_type  weight_cal_err  n_scoring_events\n",
       "0              FG        0.016252          136580.0\n",
       "1        No_Score        0.012035           50814.0\n",
       "2          Opp_FG        0.005068           79027.0\n",
       "3      Opp_Safety        0.004134            1663.0\n",
       "4          Opp_TD        0.006947          238917.0\n",
       "5          Safety        0.002898            2523.0\n",
       "6              TD        0.007636          350059.0"
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 66,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "def organize_cal_err(grp):\n",
    "    d = {}\n",
    "    d['weight_cal_err'] = np.average(grp.cal_diff, weights=grp.n_plays)\n",
    "    d['n_scoring_events'] = sum(grp.n_scoring_events)\n",
    "    return pd.Series(d, index=['weight_cal_err', 'n_scoring_events'])\n",
    "\n",
    "cv_cal_error = organized.groupby('next_score_type')\n",
    "final_cal_error = cv_cal_error.apply(organize_cal_err)\n",
    "final_cal_error = final_cal_error.reset_index()\n",
    "final_cal_error"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 67,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "Weighted calibration error: 0.008816780647086464\n"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "weighted_cal_err_final = np.average(final_cal_error.weight_cal_err, weights=final_cal_error.n_scoring_events)\n",
    "print(f\"Weighted calibration error: {weighted_cal_err_final}\")"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 86,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "xgb_model.save_model('ep_model.model')"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 77,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "bst = xgb.Booster({'nthread': 4})  # init model\n",
    "bst.load_model('ep_model.model')"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 78,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
      "text/plain": [
       "<xgboost.core.Booster at 0x7fa6086358d0>"
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 78,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "bst"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 84,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
      "text/plain": [
       "array([[0.43149558, 0.3169234 , 0.13416918, 0.09737163, 0.01017726,\n",
       "        0.0056985 , 0.00416441]], dtype=float32)"
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 84,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "np_mom = np.array([[ 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 900, 65, 0, 0, 0, 2.302585092994046, 0, 0, 0, 0 ]])\n",
    "dtest_moment = xgb.DMatrix(np_mom)\n",
    "bst.predict(dtest_moment)"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 85,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "Package                            Version            \r\n",
      "---------------------------------- -------------------\r\n",
      "absl-py                            0.9.0              \r\n",
      "alabaster                          0.7.12             \r\n",
      "altair                             3.2.0              \r\n",
      "anaconda-client                    1.7.2              \r\n",
      "anaconda-navigator                 1.10.0             \r\n",
      "anaconda-project                   0.8.3              \r\n",
      "applaunchservices                  0.2.1              \r\n",
      "appnope                            0.1.2              \r\n",
      "appscript                          1.1.1              \r\n",
      "argh                               0.26.2             \r\n",
      "argon2-cffi                        20.1.0             \r\n",
      "asn1crypto                         1.4.0              \r\n",
      "astroid                            2.4.2              \r\n",
      "astropy                            4.0.3              \r\n",
      "astunparse                         1.6.3              \r\n",
      "async-generator                    1.10               \r\n",
      "atomicwrites                       1.4.0              \r\n",
      "attr                               0.3.1              \r\n",
      "attrs                              20.3.0             \r\n",
      "autopep8                           1.4.4              \r\n",
      "Babel                              2.9.0              \r\n",
      "backcall                           0.2.0              \r\n",
      "backports.functools-lru-cache      1.6.1              \r\n",
      "backports.shutil-get-terminal-size 1.0.0              \r\n",
      "backports.tempfile                 1.0                \r\n",
      "backports.weakref                  1.0.post1          \r\n",
      "beautifulsoup4                     4.9.3              \r\n",
      "bitarray                           1.6.1              \r\n",
      "bkcharts                           0.2                \r\n",
      "bleach                             3.2.1              \r\n",
      "bokeh                              2.2.3              \r\n",
      "boto                               2.49.0             \r\n",
      "Bottleneck                         1.3.2              \r\n",
      "brotlipy                           0.7.0              \r\n",
      "cached-property                    1.5.1              \r\n",
      "cachetools                         4.1.0              \r\n",
      "certifi                            2020.11.8          \r\n",
      "cffi                               1.14.4             \r\n",
      "chardet                            3.0.4              \r\n",
      "click                              7.1.2              \r\n",
      "cloudpickle                        1.6.0              \r\n",
      "clyent                             1.2.2              \r\n",
      "colorama                           0.4.4              \r\n",
      "conda                              4.9.2              \r\n",
      "conda-build                        3.18.11            \r\n",
      "conda-package-handling             1.7.2              \r\n",
      "conda-verify                       3.4.2              \r\n",
      "contextlib2                        0.6.0.post1        \r\n",
      "coremltools                        4.0                \r\n",
      "cryptography                       3.2.1              \r\n",
      "cycler                             0.10.0             \r\n",
      "Cython                             0.29.21            \r\n",
      "cytoolz                            0.11.0             \r\n",
      "dask                               2.30.0             \r\n",
      "decorator                          4.4.2              \r\n",
      "defusedxml                         0.6.0              \r\n",
      "diff-match-patch                   20200713           \r\n",
      "distributed                        2.30.1             \r\n",
      "docutils                           0.16               \r\n",
      "entrypoints                        0.3                \r\n",
      "et-xmlfile                         1.0.1              \r\n",
      "fastcache                          1.1.0              \r\n",
      "feedparser                         5.2.1              \r\n",
      "filelock                           3.0.12             \r\n",
      "flake8                             3.7.9              \r\n",
      "Flask                              1.1.2              \r\n",
      "fsspec                             0.8.4              \r\n",
      "future                             0.18.2             \r\n",
      "gast                               0.3.3              \r\n",
      "gevent                             20.9.0             \r\n",
      "glob2                              0.7                \r\n",
      "gmpy2                              2.1.0b1            \r\n",
      "google-auth                        1.14.3             \r\n",
      "google-auth-oauthlib               0.4.1              \r\n",
      "google-pasta                       0.2.0              \r\n",
      "greenlet                           0.4.17             \r\n",
      "grpcio                             1.28.1             \r\n",
      "h5py                               3.1.0              \r\n",
      "HeapDict                           1.0.1              \r\n",
      "helpdev                            0.7.1              \r\n",
      "html5lib                           1.1                \r\n",
      "idna                               2.10               \r\n",
      "imagecodecs                        2020.5.30          \r\n",
      "imageio                            2.9.0              \r\n",
      "imagesize                          1.2.0              \r\n",
      "importlib-metadata                 3.1.1              \r\n",
      "iniconfig                          1.1.1              \r\n",
      "intervaltree                       3.0.2              \r\n",
      "ipykernel                          5.3.4              \r\n",
      "ipython                            7.19.0             \r\n",
      "ipython-genutils                   0.2.0              \r\n",
      "ipywidgets                         7.5.1              \r\n",
      "isort                              5.6.4              \r\n",
      "itsdangerous                       1.1.0              \r\n",
      "jdcal                              1.4.1              \r\n",
      "jedi                               0.15.2             \r\n",
      "Jinja2                             2.11.2             \r\n",
      "joblib                             0.17.0             \r\n",
      "json5                              0.9.5              \r\n",
      "jsonschema                         3.2.0              \r\n",
      "jupyter-client                     6.1.7              \r\n",
      "jupyter-console                    6.2.0              \r\n",
      "jupyter-core                       4.7.0              \r\n",
      "jupyterlab                         2.2.9              \r\n",
      "jupyterlab-pygments                0.1.2              \r\n",
      "jupyterlab-server                  1.2.0              \r\n",
      "Keras-Preprocessing                1.1.1              \r\n",
      "keyring                            21.5.0             \r\n",
      "kiwisolver                         1.3.1              \r\n",
      "lazy-object-proxy                  1.4.3              \r\n",
      "libarchive-c                       2.9                \r\n",
      "llvmlite                           0.34.0             \r\n",
      "locket                             0.2.0              \r\n",
      "lxml                               4.6.2              \r\n",
      "Markdown                           3.2.2              \r\n",
      "MarkupSafe                         1.1.1              \r\n",
      "matplotlib                         3.3.3              \r\n",
      "mccabe                             0.6.1              \r\n",
      "mistune                            0.8.4              \r\n",
      "mkl-fft                            1.2.0              \r\n",
      "mkl-random                         1.2.0              \r\n",
      "mkl-service                        2.3.0              \r\n",
      "mock                               4.0.2              \r\n",
      "more-itertools                     8.6.0              \r\n",
      "mpmath                             1.1.0              \r\n",
      "msgpack                            1.0.0              \r\n",
      "multipledispatch                   0.6.0              \r\n",
      "navigator-updater                  0.2.1              \r\n",
      "nbclient                           0.5.1              \r\n",
      "nbconvert                          6.0.7              \r\n",
      "nbformat                           5.0.8              \r\n",
      "nest-asyncio                       1.4.3              \r\n",
      "networkx                           2.5                \r\n",
      "nltk                               3.4.4              \r\n",
      "nose                               1.3.7              \r\n",
      "notebook                           6.1.5              \r\n",
      "numba                              0.51.2             \r\n",
      "numexpr                            2.7.1              \r\n",
      "numpy                              1.18.0             \r\n",
      "numpydoc                           1.1.0              \r\n",
      "oauthlib                           3.1.0              \r\n",
      "olefile                            0.46               \r\n",
      "openpyxl                           3.0.5              \r\n",
      "opt-einsum                         3.2.1              \r\n",
      "packaging                          20.4               \r\n",
      "pandas                             1.1.4              \r\n",
      "pandocfilters                      1.4.2              \r\n",
      "parso                              0.5.2              \r\n",
      "partd                              1.1.0              \r\n",
      "path                               15.0.0             \r\n",
      "pathlib2                           2.3.5              \r\n",
      "pathtools                          0.1.2              \r\n",
      "patsy                              0.5.1              \r\n",
      "pep8                               1.7.1              \r\n",
      "pexpect                            4.8.0              \r\n",
      "pickleshare                        0.7.5              \r\n",
      "Pillow                             8.0.1              \r\n",
      "pip                                20.0.2             \r\n",
      "pkginfo                            1.6.1              \r\n",
      "plotly                             4.6.0              \r\n",
      "pluggy                             0.13.1             \r\n",
      "ply                                3.11               \r\n",
      "pmdarima                           1.2.0              \r\n",
      "prettytable                        0.7.2              \r\n",
      "prometheus-client                  0.9.0              \r\n",
      "prompt-toolkit                     3.0.8              \r\n",
      "protobuf                           3.13.0             \r\n",
      "psutil                             5.7.3              \r\n",
      "ptyprocess                         0.6.0              \r\n",
      "py                                 1.9.0              \r\n",
      "pyarrow                            2.0.0              \r\n",
      "pyasn1                             0.4.8              \r\n",
      "pyasn1-modules                     0.2.8              \r\n",
      "pycodestyle                        2.5.0              \r\n",
      "pycosat                            0.6.3              \r\n",
      "pycparser                          2.20               \r\n",
      "pycrypto                           2.6.1              \r\n",
      "pycurl                             7.43.0.6           \r\n",
      "pydocstyle                         5.1.1              \r\n",
      "pyflakes                           2.1.1              \r\n",
      "Pygments                           2.7.2              \r\n",
      "pylint                             2.6.0              \r\n",
      "pyodbc                             4.0.30             \r\n",
      "pyOpenSSL                          20.0.0             \r\n",
      "pyparsing                          2.4.7              \r\n",
      "pyrsistent                         0.17.3             \r\n",
      "PySocks                            1.7.1              \r\n",
      "pytest                             6.1.2              \r\n",
      "python-dateutil                    2.8.1              \r\n",
      "python-jsonrpc-server              0.3.4              \r\n",
      "python-language-server             0.31.10            \r\n",
      "pytz                               2020.4             \r\n",
      "PyWavelets                         1.1.1              \r\n",
      "PyYAML                             5.3.1              \r\n",
      "pyzmq                              20.0.0             \r\n",
      "QDarkStyle                         2.8.1              \r\n",
      "QtAwesome                          1.0.1              \r\n",
      "qtconsole                          5.0.1              \r\n",
      "QtPy                               1.9.0              \r\n",
      "regex                              2020.7.14          \r\n",
      "requests                           2.25.0             \r\n",
      "requests-oauthlib                  1.3.0              \r\n",
      "resampy                            0.2.1              \r\n",
      "retrying                           1.3.3              \r\n",
      "rope                               0.18.0             \r\n",
      "rsa                                4.0                \r\n",
      "Rtree                              0.9.4              \r\n",
      "ruamel-yaml-conda                  0.15.80            \r\n",
      "scikit-image                       0.17.2             \r\n",
      "scikit-learn                       0.23.0             \r\n",
      "scipy                              1.5.3              \r\n",
      "seaborn                            0.11.0             \r\n",
      "Send2Trash                         1.5.0              \r\n",
      "setuptools                         49.6.0.post20201009\r\n",
      "simplegeneric                      0.8.1              \r\n",
      "singledispatch                     3.4.0.3            \r\n",
      "six                                1.15.0             \r\n",
      "snowballstemmer                    2.0.0              \r\n",
      "sortedcollections                  1.2.1              \r\n",
      "sortedcontainers                   2.3.0              \r\n",
      "soupsieve                          2.0.1              \r\n",
      "Sphinx                             3.3.1              \r\n",
      "sphinxcontrib-applehelp            1.0.2              \r\n",
      "sphinxcontrib-devhelp              1.0.2              \r\n",
      "sphinxcontrib-htmlhelp             1.0.3              \r\n",
      "sphinxcontrib-jsmath               1.0.1              \r\n",
      "sphinxcontrib-qthelp               1.0.3              \r\n",
      "sphinxcontrib-serializinghtml      1.1.4              \r\n",
      "sphinxcontrib-websupport           1.2.4              \r\n",
      "spyder                             4.1.3              \r\n",
      "spyder-kernels                     1.9.4              \r\n",
      "SQLAlchemy                         1.3.20             \r\n",
      "statsmodels                        0.12.1             \r\n",
      "sympy                              1.7                \r\n",
      "tables                             3.6.1              \r\n",
      "tblib                              1.6.0              \r\n",
      "tensorboard                        2.2.1              \r\n",
      "tensorboard-plugin-wit             1.6.0.post3        \r\n",
      "tensorflow                         2.2.0              \r\n",
      "tensorflow-estimator               2.2.0              \r\n",
      "termcolor                          1.1.0              \r\n",
      "terminado                          0.9.1              \r\n",
      "testpath                           0.4.4              \r\n",
      "threadpoolctl                      2.1.0              \r\n",
      "tifffile                           2020.11.26         \r\n",
      "toml                               0.10.2             \r\n",
      "toolz                              0.11.1             \r\n",
      "tornado                            6.1                \r\n",
      "tqdm                               4.54.0             \r\n",
      "traitlets                          5.0.5              \r\n",
      "turicreate                         6.2.2              \r\n",
      "typed-ast                          1.4.1              \r\n",
      "typing-extensions                  3.7.4.3            \r\n",
      "ujson                              1.35               \r\n",
      "unicodecsv                         0.14.1             \r\n",
      "urllib3                            1.25.11            \r\n",
      "watchdog                           0.10.4             \r\n",
      "wcwidth                            0.2.5              \r\n",
      "webencodings                       0.5.1              \r\n",
      "Werkzeug                           1.0.1              \r\n",
      "wheel                              0.36.0             \r\n",
      "widgetsnbextension                 3.5.1              \r\n",
      "wrapt                              1.11.2             \r\n",
      "wurlitzer                          2.0.0              \r\n",
      "xgboost                            1.2.0              \r\n",
      "xlrd                               1.2.0              \r\n",
      "XlsxWriter                         1.3.7              \r\n",
      "xlwings                            0.21.4             \r\n",
      "xlwt                               1.3.0              \r\n",
      "xmltodict                          0.12.0             \r\n",
      "yapf                               0.30.0             \r\n",
      "zict                               2.0.0              \r\n",
      "zipp                               3.4.0              \r\n",
      "zope.event                         4.5.0              \r\n",
      "zope.interface                     5.2.0              \r\n"
     ]
    },
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "Note: you may need to restart the kernel to use updated packages.\n"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "%pip list"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 1,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "# classes : 7,-7,3,-3,0,2,-2\n",
    "import xgboost as xgb\n",
    "bst = xgb.Booster({'nthread': 4})  # init model\n",
    "bst.load_model('ep_model.model')"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 3,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
      "text/plain": [
       "input {\n",
       "  name: \"TimeSecsRem\"\n",
       "  shortDescription: \"The time remaining in the half.\"\n",
       "  type {\n",
       "    doubleType {\n",
       "    }\n",
       "  }\n",
       "}\n",
       "input {\n",
       "  name: \"yards_to_goal\"\n",
       "  shortDescription: \"The yards left to gain towards the end zone.\"\n",
       "  type {\n",
       "    doubleType {\n",
       "    }\n",
       "  }\n",
       "}\n",
       "input {\n",
       "  name: \"distance\"\n",
       "  shortDescription: \"The number of yards to gain a first down.\"\n",
       "  type {\n",
       "    doubleType {\n",
       "    }\n",
       "  }\n",
       "}\n",
       "input {\n",
       "  name: \"down_1\"\n",
       "  shortDescription: \"Signifies first down.\"\n",
       "  type {\n",
       "    doubleType {\n",
       "    }\n",
       "  }\n",
       "}\n",
       "input {\n",
       "  name: \"down_2\"\n",
       "  shortDescription: \"Signifies second down.\"\n",
       "  type {\n",
       "    doubleType {\n",
       "    }\n",
       "  }\n",
       "}\n",
       "input {\n",
       "  name: \"down_3\"\n",
       "  shortDescription: \"Signifies third down.\"\n",
       "  type {\n",
       "    doubleType {\n",
       "    }\n",
       "  }\n",
       "}\n",
       "input {\n",
       "  name: \"down_4\"\n",
       "  shortDescription: \"Signifies fourth down.\"\n",
       "  type {\n",
       "    doubleType {\n",
       "    }\n",
       "  }\n",
       "}\n",
       "input {\n",
       "  name: \"pos_score_diff_start\"\n",
       "  shortDescription: \"The score of the game from the perspective of the offense.\"\n",
       "  type {\n",
       "    doubleType {\n",
       "    }\n",
       "  }\n",
       "}\n",
       "output {\n",
       "  name: \"target\"\n",
       "  type {\n",
       "    stringType {\n",
       "    }\n",
       "  }\n",
       "}\n",
       "output {\n",
       "  name: \"classProbability\"\n",
       "  type {\n",
       "    dictionaryType {\n",
       "      stringKeyType {\n",
       "      }\n",
       "    }\n",
       "  }\n",
       "}\n",
       "predictedFeatureName: \"target\"\n",
       "predictedProbabilitiesName: \"classProbability\"\n",
       "metadata {\n",
       "  shortDescription: \"Predicts expected points by a football play given its context.\"\n",
       "  author: \"Saiem Gilani for R code; Akshay Easwaran for CoreML conversion.\"\n",
       "  license: \"MIT\"\n",
       "  userDefined {\n",
       "    key: \"com.github.apple.coremltools.source\"\n",
       "    value: \"xgboost==1.2.0\"\n",
       "  }\n",
       "  userDefined {\n",
       "    key: \"com.github.apple.coremltools.version\"\n",
       "    value: \"4.0\"\n",
       "  }\n",
       "}"
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 3,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "import coremltools as cml\n",
    "cml_model = cml.converters.xgboost.convert(bst, force_32bit_float=False, mode=\"classifier\", feature_names=[\n",
    "    \"TimeSecsRem\",\n",
    "    \"yards_to_goal\",\n",
    "    \"distance\",\n",
    "    \"down_1\",\"down_2\",\"down_3\",\"down_4\",\n",
    "    \"pos_score_diff_start\"\n",
    "],\n",
    "class_labels=[\n",
    "     \"Touchdown\", \"Opp_Touchdown\", \"Field_Goal\", \"Opp_Field_Goal\",\n",
    "    \"Safety\", \"Opp_Safety\", \"No_Score\"\n",
    "])\n",
    "cml_model.author = 'Saiem Gilani for R code; Akshay Easwaran for CoreML conversion.'\n",
    "cml_model.license = 'MIT'\n",
    "cml_model.short_description = 'Predicts expected points by a football play given its context.'\n",
    "cml_model\n",
    "\n",
    "# Set feature descriptions manually\n",
    "cml_model.input_description['TimeSecsRem'] = 'The time remaining in the half.'\n",
    "cml_model.input_description['yards_to_goal'] = 'The yards left to gain towards the end zone.'\n",
    "cml_model.input_description['distance'] = 'The number of yards to gain a first down.'\n",
    "cml_model.input_description['down_1'] = 'Signifies first down.'\n",
    "cml_model.input_description['down_2'] = 'Signifies second down.'\n",
    "cml_model.input_description['down_3'] = 'Signifies third down.'\n",
    "cml_model.input_description['down_4'] = 'Signifies fourth down.'\n",
    "cml_model.input_description['pos_score_diff_start'] = 'The score of the game from the perspective of the offense.'\n",
    "\n",
    "\n",
    "# # Save the model\n",
    "cml_model.save('CFBEPA.mlmodel')\n",
    "cml_model"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": null,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": []
  }
 ],
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