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lectures/long_run_growth.md

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@@ -56,7 +56,7 @@ some dating back to the first century.
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The data can be downloaded from the [Maddison Historical Statistics webpage](https://www.rug.nl/ggdc/historicaldevelopment/maddison/) by clicking on the "Latest Maddison Project Release".
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For convenience, here is a copy of the 2020 data {download}`in Excel format <datasets/mpd2020.xlsx>`.
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For convenience, here is a copy of the {download}`2020 data <datasets/mpd2020.xlsx>` in `Excel` format.
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Let's read it into a pandas dataframe:
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Let's now reshape the original data into some convenient variables to enable quicker access to countries time series data.
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We can build a useful mapping between country code's and country names in this dataset
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We can build a useful mapping between country codes and country names in this dataset
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```{code-cell} ipython3
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code_to_name = data[['countrycode','country']].drop_duplicates().reset_index(drop=True).set_index(['countrycode'])
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The preceding graph of percapita GDP strikingly reveals how the spread of the industrial revolution has over time gradually lifted the living standards of substantial
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groups of people
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- Most of the growth happened in the past 150 years after the industrial revolution.
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- Percapita GDP's in the UK and the US, on the one hand, and in China, on the other, diverged from 1820 to 1940.
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- The gap has closed rapidly after 1950 and especially after the late 1970s.
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- These outcomes reflect complicated combinations of technological and economic-policy factors that students of economic growth try to understand and quantify
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- most of the growth happened in the past 150 years after the industrial revolution.
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- percapita GDP rised in the UK and the US, and in China, on the other hand, diverged from 1820 to 1940.
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- the gap has closed rapidly after 1950 and especially after the late 1970s.
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- these outcomes reflect complicated combinations of technological and economic-policy factors that students of economic growth try to understand and quantify.
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It is fascinating to see China's GDP per capita levels from 1500 through to the 1970s.
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Thus, the graph indicates
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- A long economic downturn and stagnation after the Closed-door Policy by the Qing government
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- China's very different experience than the UK's after the onset of the industrial revolution in the UK
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- How the Self-Strengthening Movement seemed mostly to help China to grow
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- How stunning have been the growth achievements of Modern Chinese economic policies by the PRC that culminated with its late 1970s Reform and Opening-up
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- a long economic downturn and stagnation after the Closed-door Policy by the Qing government.
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- China's very different experience than the UK's after the onset of the industrial revolution in the UK.
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- how the Self-Strengthening Movement seemed mostly to help China to grow.
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- how stunning have been the growth achievements of Modern Chinese economic policies by the PRC that culminated with its late 1970s Reform and Opening-up.
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```{code-cell} ipython3
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---
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We can also look at the United States (USA) and United Kingdom (GBR) in more detail
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In the following graph, please watch for
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- impact of trade policy (Navigation Act)
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- productivity changes brought by the industrial revolution
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- how the US gradually approaches and then surpasses the UK, setting the stage for the ``American Century''
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- the often unanticipated consequences of wars
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- interruptions and scars left by {ref}`business cycle<mc1_ex_1>` recessions and depressions
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- impact of trade policy (Navigation Act).
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- productivity changes brought by the industrial revolution.
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- how the US gradually approaches and then surpasses the UK, setting the stage for the ''American Century''.
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- the often unanticipated consequences of wars.
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- interruptions and scars left by {ref}`business cycle<mc1_ex_1>` recessions and depressions.
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```{code-cell} ipython3
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---
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```
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Looking more closely, let's compare the time series for `Western Offshoots` and `Sub-Saharan Africa` and more broadly at a number of different regions around the world
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Looking more closely, let's compare the time series for `Western Offshoots` and `Sub-Saharan Africa` and more broadly at a number of different regions around the world.
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Again we see the divergence of the West from the rest of the world after the industrial revolution and the convergence of the world after the 1950s
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