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    <meta name="author" content="Alec van Helsdingen">
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	<p> I'm a <a href = "https://profiles.auckland.ac.nz/alec-van-helsdingen">PhD student</a> in statistics at the University of Auckland focusing on stochastic processes and ecology. You can find 	me on <a href="https://linkedin.com/in/alec-van-helsdingen-1162251a4">LinkedIn</a>, on <a href="https://x.com/NzPredictor">X</a> and <a 	href="https://bsky.app/profile/abmvanhelsdingen.bsky.social">Bluesky</a>.</p>

	<p>A large chunk of my thesis is devoted to Spatial Capture-Recapture (SCR) models. These are widely used for estimating the size of animal populations. <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s13253-025-00724-3">My work</a> modifies SCR models to better account for the movement of individual animals in camera trapping surveys. Another focus has been modelling temporal point patterns where there is dependence between points (i.e. the Poisson assumptions are inappropriate). The times of whale cues <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s13253-024-00626-w">served as a motivation</a>, since these tend to be more "metronomic" than otherwise expected. </p>

	<p> I've also worked with Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) and problems in operations research such as integer programming. </p>


        <p>
            This website contains my election forecasts for <a href="nz.html">New Zealand</a>, the <a href="nederland.html">Netherlands</a> and <a href="ireland.html">Ireland</a>.
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       <p> I'm also a genealogist and genetic genealogist, and have a <a href="https://sallandsdtb.wordpress.com/">website</a> with transcription of Dutch historical records.</p>
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